So, 24 hours of campaigning to go, and confusion still reigns supreme.
There have been three more polls out this afternoon: a TV3 poll with Labour 2% ahead, a Morgan poll with Labour 1.5% ahead, and a TVNZ poll with National 6% ahead. So, again: who the Hell knows? The Greens rate 7%, 7.5% and 5.1% in these three polls respectively, so seemingly safely above the threshold.
Plugging all this new data into our frogblog averager gives National the edge for the first time: 40.4% plays 39.0% – a two-seat edge in our projected Parliament. Note also that United has edged up to 2.4%, gaining a third seat. Act remains terminal, at under 2%.
Our Parliament is completely locked up at 61 seats each: National/United/NZ First on one side and Labour/Greens/Maori/Progressive on the other. In such a dead heat scenario, I guess United would either have to switch sides, or we’d have to have a new election. My guess is that United would blink first, rather than send the country back to the polls.
One or two more polls out tomorrow morning will probably only add to the confusion. Anyway, the new data is here.
Also, sorry for the outage this afternoon. Thankfully, the problem now appears to be fixed.