Predictions

A frogblog reader has just floated the idea that we all make predictions on the election result. I’m far too cautious to make a prediction of my own, but I’d happily receive them from anyone who wants to make them in the comments thread below. Maybe we’ll even be able to find a prize for whoever gets closest 🙂

To get the ball rolling, the reader who suggested this prediction idea – andrewudstraw – went with: National 46%, Labour 35%, NZ First 7%, Greens 5%, United F 3%, Act 2%, Progs 1%. For the record, I would be staggered if either side won the kind of landslide that he’s predicting…

16 Comments Posted

  1. Here’s another prediction, from the trademe users poll at:
    http://www.trademe.co.nz/structure/election2005.asp

    Act New Zealand 3%
    Green Party 8%
    Jim Anderton’s Progressive 1%
    Labour Party 35%
    Maori Party 1%
    National Party 44%
    New Zealand First Party 4%
    United Future New Zealand 4%
    votes: 13068

    if you assume that Rodney and Winston lose their seats and Jim and Dunhill win theirs and that the Maori win 4 electorate seats then that gives
    National-United 62 (57 and 5) and LPGM 61 (46-1-10-4)
    so National-United can govern unless the Maori overhang is very large.

    if you assume that winston wins his then:
    National 55 United 5 NZ First 5
    Labour 43 Prog 1 Green 10 Maori 4

  2. Thanks to Glen, I think we just got the scenario of Mugabe’s regime overlaid with ott campaign spinners on P…….
    2 more sleeps to go! Go on, fess up, how many party hacks out there are going to just bail and leave the country for a little holiday before Christmas….

  3. At 10pm on the night of the election have a coup. Shoot Anderton and Dunne.
    Helen and Don become joint leaders with Jeanette and Winston as cabinet. (sorry Rod you,ve gotta go you upset the balance….bang!
    Pita will be in control of culture and treaty negotiations (with a clause that he gets 10% commition on moneys saved by the state). Tarianna..bang!
    Destiny Party will meet Destiny..Bang
    ACT..future National Party members will be checked back over 3 generations to see they never belonged to the sect.
    Anyone left over will work for the dole on enviromental work.
    Marian Hobbes will be used as a carer for Blumsky who has a habit of falling over.

  4. DR,

    After MMP was introduced there were changes to Parliament’s standing orders so that the vast majority of votes taken are now Party votes – someone from each party – usually the whip – says how many votes the party has and whether they are in favour or against. The party whose member is in the chair gets to cast their vote for them. This of course differs from the situation such as in 1996 when National appointed Labour’s Peter Tapsell speaker, because back then the speaker didn’t get to vote – he or she now does.

  5. National: 52 seats
    Labour: 52 seats
    Green: 7 seats
    NZ First: 6 seats
    Maori Party: 4 seats
    United Future: 2 seats
    Progressives:1 seat

    124 seat parliament, Lab+Prog+Green = 60, National+NZ First+UF=60. Maori Party 4.

    MOST LIKELY:
    The most likely scenario will pan out like this: Winston will offer his support on supply & confidence to National, assuming the Maori Party will stay in opposition to everyone. In this scenario, I can see the speculation of a new election causing Winston to “save the nation” by backing the Labour/Prog/Greens block after keeping everyone guessing for a four to six weeks or so.

    SECOND MOST LIKELY
    If Nat/NZF/UF get 62 seats, the opposition of the Maori Party would simply mean another election.

    THIRD MOST LIKELY
    Even with 63 seats for Nat/UF with NZF Supply and Confidence, Winston will refuse to support National’s tax cuts package – which Key and co. will try and ram through as a confidence issue. this will precipitate a crisis.

    Therefore unless Nat/UF gets MORE THAN 63 seats my pick is for either another election within 12-18 months, or a Clark-led centre left coalition supported by NZF being asked to form a new government.

  6. By per cent of party vote:
    National 40.3, Labour 38.5, Greens 7.1, NZF 6.0, UF 3.1, ACT 2.9, Maori 1.5, Progressives 0.6
    By seats:
    National 50, Labour 48, Greens 9, NZF 8, UF 4, ACT 0, Maori 5, Progressives 1.
    Total = 125.
    Left-central bloc: L/P/G/UF = 62. Cannot govern. But + Maori in confidence and supply can govern after providing Speaker.
    Right-central bloc: N/NZF/UF = 62. Cannot govern, because no confidence and supply from Maori.
    Government = L/P/G/UF.
    Playing the race card brings Brash almost to the point of success, but loses because of the Maori Party’s electorate seats. What an irony!
    Will Labour heed the wake-up call though? Not until Clark’s administration of arrogance is replaced, and the internal battle that precedes her fall will see Labour weakened.
    National will also have an internal battle for failing, Brash will go, and part of the party will move towards the right.
    The 2008 election will have a different landscape, and Greens will need to move towards the centre to capture the babyboomer vote which it has ignored this election.

  7. By seats:

    National 50
    Labour 48
    Green 9
    NZ First 8
    Maori 3
    UF 2
    Progressives 1

    If Clarkson wins Tauranga, I think Winston is just about chidlish enough to let his jealousy override his dislike of the Green.

  8. National 41
    Labour 37
    Greens 8
    NZ First 6
    United Future 3
    ACT 3
    Progressive 2

    No science or skill involved in this prediction.

    Imagine if the Greens cracked 10? If only…

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