forecast Archive

  • frog

    RBNZ keeps head in the sand - by frog



    You can tell a series has lost it’s punch when it takes me 4 days to get the post up about it. I simply cannot believe that the Reserve Bank has turned out yet another oil price forecast guaranteed to be a loser – like every single previous forecast of the last four years. The [...] read more
    June 11, 2008 9:28 am - 36 Comments
  • frog

    Treasury’s Oil BEFU - by frog



    I promised to follow up on last week’s Budget Economic Forecast Update, (BEFU), in order to compare it to my own predictions of what Treasury would predict. If you look at the chart from my post before Budget day, you will see that I predicted that Treasury would be lazy and just cut and paste [...] read more
    May 28, 2008 9:36 am - 26 Comments
  • frog

    Robert Hirsch forecasts US$12-15 per gallon - by frog



    Robert Hirsch, on of America’s key researchers on the impact of peak oil, says we will soon be seeing US$12 per gallon gasoline prices. That’s over US$3 per litre, or NZ$3.80 at our currently healthy exchange rate. He says that the plateau in production that is responsible for our current surge in prices has been [...] read more
    May 26, 2008 11:30 am - 44 Comments
  • frog

    Frog’s Oil BEFU - by frog



    It has come to my attention that Treasury is not really interested in making an effort to forecast oil prices, despite the fact that the rest of New Zealand places huge faith in the Budget Economic Forecast Update, or BEFU. Historically I have been reluctant to make any forecasts, but today, I am going to [...] read more
    May 21, 2008 10:22 am - 40 Comments
  • frog

    With oil forecasts, green is still better than red - by frog



    Well here it is, as promised, the updated version of my chart from last November. I’ve said so much about all of this in other posts, so I’ll just recycle many of the excellent links that were put up by readers last November. Simon Tegg’s excellent in-depth look at MED’s assumptions. Plus MED’s original workshop [...] read more
    April 21, 2008 1:30 pm - 10 Comments
  • frog

    Rates rise because oil prices rise - by frog



    Oil price rises are the single biggest factor in a proposed rates increase discussed today by the Greater Wellington Regional Council. The proposed rates increase for the 2008/09 financial year is 6.8%. Rising transport costs, in particular diesel to fuel the region’s buses, account for 40% of the proposed rates rise. However, ratepayers will not [...] read more
    February 25, 2008 5:41 pm - 16 Comments