forecast Archive

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  RBNZ keeps head in the sand - by frog

  
  
  
  You can tell a series has lost it’s punch when it takes me 4 days to get the post up about it. I simply cannot believe that the Reserve Bank has turned out yet another oil price forecast guaranteed to be a loser – like every single previous forecast of the last four years. The [...] read more
  June 11, 2008 9:28 am - 36 Comments
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  Treasury’s Oil BEFU - by frog

  
  
  
  I promised to follow up on last week’s Budget Economic Forecast Update, (BEFU), in order to compare it to my own predictions of what Treasury would predict. If you look at the chart from my post before Budget day, you will see that I predicted that Treasury would be lazy and just cut and paste [...] read more
  May 28, 2008 9:36 am - 26 Comments
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  Robert Hirsch forecasts US$12-15 per gallon - by frog

  
  
  
  Robert Hirsch, on of America’s key researchers on the impact of peak oil, says we will soon be seeing US$12 per gallon gasoline prices. That’s over US$3 per litre, or NZ$3.80 at our currently healthy exchange rate. He says that the plateau in production that is responsible for our current surge in prices has been [...] read more
  May 26, 2008 11:30 am - 44 Comments
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  Frog’s Oil BEFU - by frog

  
  
  
  It has come to my attention that Treasury is not really interested in making an effort to forecast oil prices, despite the fact that the rest of New Zealand places huge faith in the Budget Economic Forecast Update, or BEFU. Historically I have been reluctant to make any forecasts, but today, I am going to [...] read more
  May 21, 2008 10:22 am - 40 Comments
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  With oil forecasts, green is still better than red - by frog

  
  
  
  Well here it is, as promised, the updated version of my chart from last November. I’ve said so much about all of this in other posts, so I’ll just recycle many of the excellent links that were put up by readers last November. Simon Tegg’s excellent in-depth look at MED’s assumptions. Plus MED’s original workshop [...] read more
  April 21, 2008 1:30 pm - 10 Comments
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  Rates rise because oil prices rise - by frog

  
  
  
  Oil price rises are the single biggest factor in a proposed rates increase discussed today by the Greater Wellington Regional Council. The proposed rates increase for the 2008/09 financial year is 6.8%. Rising transport costs, in particular diesel to fuel the region’s buses, account for 40% of the proposed rates rise. However, ratepayers will not [...] read more
  February 25, 2008 5:41 pm - 16 Comments