Overhangs and tactical voting

by frog

Kiwiblog raised an issue that I must admit I hadn’t considered when I wrote last week about why Maori Party voters who are leaning towards the Maori party should consider voting tactically with their party vote.   David Farrar suggests:

But what the Greens are calling for, is for Maori roll voters to vote in such a way to ensure over-hang, to gain parties of the left more seats in Parliament than their party vote entitles them to.

I should just quickly point out that I am not the Greens and don’t speak on the Green Party’s behalf, and that neither the Maori nor Green Party would define themselves primarily as on the left.  But, I think Farrar is right that an overhang is a distortion of our proportional voting system.  Although I would not go so far as to argue:

So the consequences of what the Greens are trying to do are severe. They are not only trying to frustrate the will of the voters, but they endanger MMP. For let me tell you that if they actually succeeded with their plan, and engineered a deliberate over-hang which changed the election result, the backlash would be nasty and massive.

At the time I wrote the post it was as a Green leaning voter articulating a reason why more people should consider giving their party vote to the Green Party.  The reason I gave was a tactical one rather than a policy one.  Having thought about it, I’m still not convinced this is manipulative. Or, at least no more than Rodney Hide telling National-leaning Epsom voters that they can have ‘two for the price of one’.  (And in 1999 Hide’s predecessor Richard Prebble in Wellington Central, and Jeanette Fitzsimons in Coromandel both also got in due at least in part to some voters thinking ‘two for one’).

I think there is an ethical difference between trying to convince another party’s voters (to the extent that any party can ‘own’ voters) to vote for you, and deliberately splitting your own party’s votes in such a way as to manipulate an overhang.

The key difference in my mind is that the Greens have no idea how the Maori Party is likely to vote on any issues in the next three years.  Indeed it is possible that the Greens and the Maori Party could end up on opposite sides of the house after post-election negotiations have concluded.  Although the parties have some core issues in common neither the Maori Party nor the Greens have stated yet who they will work with after the election and it is not as clear as it might have seemed three years ago.

I think the point remains for Maori Party voters though that their party rather than their electorate vote is highly likely to be wasted if they vote for the Maori Party with it.  If they agree with that premise it’s not much of a step to then looking around to another party to give their party vote to; be that the Greens, National or another party.  Personally I think the logic points towards the Greens.  I’m not convinced that would be a rort, otherwise everyone should be required to vote the same way with their party and electorate vote.

I was about to note that every party’s single job is to collect as much party vote as possible, but then realised that the Greens are the only parliamentary party for whom that is true as all other parliamentary parties will have an electorate vote component to their campaign as well, in some form or another.

frog says

Published in Campaign | Justice & Democracy by frog on Mon, June 9th, 2008   

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