The Maori Party’s tactical conundrum

by frog

I thought Audrey Young’s comment about ‘strained‘ relations between the Maori Party and the Greens was an odd one yesterday. I’m sure the Maori Party never believed that it would have an uncontested run at collecting Maori people’s party votes. Or that it believes that it has any ownership over those votes. The Greens know that as well as any party, except perhaps Labour. After all in 2002 the Greens won 11,588 votes from the Maori roll or 10.7 percent of the party vote. By 2005 that had fallen to 4,458 votes or 3.3 percent.

The close parliamentary voting pattern between the two parties on a majority of common issues suggests this competition for votes has not soured an evolving political relationship.

The question that Maori voters are asking though is that if the Maori party wins 6 electorate seats (it thinks it can win seven) is it worth also giving a party vote to the Maori Party? Last election each seat in Parliament was worth about 20,000 votes. So the answer is yes, a party vote for the Maori Party can deliver another parliamentary seat but only if there are about another 140,000 votes to go with it and help it climb above the seat overhang the Maori Party is expected to have. In other words, Maori voters who are leaning towards the Maori Party would need to give 7 times as many votes to the Maori Party to get one seat in parliament as they would to the Green Party. It’s important to remember that the Green Party has voted with the Maori Party in Parliament this term more than any other party in Parliament, including supporting it on core issues like the Seabed and Foreshore.

I think it is mistaken to describe this tactical debate between the Maori Party and the Greens as either ‘war’ or ‘peevishness’ as Young does. Young is right that the Maori Party needs to grow its party vote if it is to expand it’s independence. But Maori voters also recognise this is a balancing act and that they could also potentially gain interdependent, rather than independent, political power from voting for a strong negotiating block after the election if both parties maximise their collective results.

frog says

Published in Campaign by frog on Sat, June 7th, 2008   

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