The guessing game
Dene Mackensie has a go this morning at speculating on the election date in the Otago Daily Times [off line]. He suggests that there will be a 1 October introduction of tax cuts from the government. This means it will want an election at least four weeks after that to ensure everybody has had a couple of tax cuts in their pay packets before they head off to the polling booth. Which means a probable election on November 1 or 8. He also says though that National is picking October 18 at the moment. I assume this is based on talking with National Party representatives at their Southern Regional Conference over the weekend. The reality is that Prime Minister and her campaign strategists will be looking not for a date that aids democracy but one that maximises the chances for Labour’s vote and minimises the vote for her opponents.
It seems a bizarre system that allows one of the political parties to unilaterally decide when the election should be and then hold off from telling anybody else as long as possible. Theoretically they can plan for it years in advance but nobody else can.
May 12th, 2008 at 11:16 am
I totally agree with your observation. It is not about democracy but about clinging to power. I would like to see all these professional politicians pack up and step aside, a max of two terms in office and out you go, make some room for new ideas and young blood. The way its done has nothing to do with democracy, its only about looking after interest groups, its false, its about ego, not about serving or representation.
May 12th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Agreed Frog.
Then again, isn’t there another way to force an election….
May 12th, 2008 at 11:25 am
The thing about limited terms is that one would have ‘nothing to lose’ once voted in for the second time, as one would be getting the heave-ho at the end anyway! No? Yes?
May 12th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
“It seems a bizarre system that allows one of the political parties to unilaterally decide when the election should be and then hold off from telling anybody else as long as possible. ”
So why did the Greens support the EFA which restricts campaigning for the whole of election year in that case? Surely another major advantage to the incumbent to knwo when to spend their (actually it is probably our) money?
May 12th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
and just on that election for a mo’..
interested parties should listen to the nine-to-noon political comment segment on rnz this morn..
both the left and the right..hooten..and harre..
were in (rare) agreement that the greens need to ‘harden up/clarify their messages..
hooten echoed my often-asked question..of..why aren’t the greens over 10%..?
harre noted that the greens need to ‘clarify’ their messages..
(something else to consider..is that farrars’ latest summariy of the months polling..
show that the environment has a 91% worry-rating..(!)
you/your/’green’ messages are no longer being ignored..
but..(just quietly)..just what are your ‘messages’..?
(aside from pointing at labour..and saying ‘we’re with them..!’..)
i’s time for the greens to get off the backfoot..
and to lead..
( i sure as hell hope you’re up to it’..!
phil(whoar.co.nz)
May 12th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
Insider: Only political parties and partisan advertising is restricted, and that was necessary to close the loopholes that National utilised last election. I’m sure if there were a way to avoid interest groups like the Exclusive Bretheren running proxy campaigns for parties beyond the spending without that restriction, the Greens would much rather vote for that.
I agree that the EFA favours this particular incumbent- Labour wouldn’t have passed it otherwise- but it does so less than previous electoral law. Sometimes you have to take what you can get in politics, sadly.
May 12th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
*beyond the spending limit, even.
May 12th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
@ Stephen R
Yes there is always a chance that MP’s will not give a toss, but they will have to integrate back into life outside parliament a lot sooner, and will be judged by their peers. But I am talking about these nominated party long timers (or short stayers in some cases like J Brash) who have no real democratic mandate. They are the ones who should not be there at all.
On that note I would even go as far as to suggest ‘direct online democracy’, with citizen forums who will ultimately make some decisions, it could be introduced on a local government level and maybe with more education taken to the national level…we could have MP as advisers but the voting is done -direct-
May 12th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
“Insider: Only political parties and partisan advertising is restricted, and that was necessary to close the loopholes that National utilised last election. I’m sure if there were a way to avoid interest groups like the Exclusive Bretheren running proxy campaigns for parties beyond the spending without that restriction, the Greens would much rather vote for that.”
The unions have campaigned for the Labour Party for decades; honestly, tell me what was wrong with the Exclusive Brethren campaign? People will choose who they vote for depending on their own set of beliefs, not on some pamphlet drop campaign.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:34 am
greed n power - there will be many people eligible for the citizens forums who will not give a toss too - this might preclude them participating and allow the forums to be highjacked by a small minority who do give a rather big damn…