Peak Oil and the crisis in Lebanon

by frog

On the face of it, it might seem like the looming threat of peak oil and the current bloodshed in Lebanon are two quite separate threats to global security, but a theory posited recently by the President of the Global Americana Institute, Juan Cole, on his blog Informed Comment, makes a compelling case that they are, in fact, inextricably linked.

You’ll only glean the full impact from reading the whole post, which you really should do, but the central thesis can be summed up something like this:

Oil and gas reserves are running out just about everywhere, except in Iran, which is sitting on substantial resources of this nature. Emerging superpowers like China and India need more and more oil to keep growing at the rate they are, and may be in a position to make exclusive deals with Iran for access to their oil, shutting out the US. Considering the US’s close ties with Israel, and assuming that a reader’s suggestion that “the US government is 100% convinced that both, Hamas and Hizballah are creatures of Iran and that Iran uses them to undermine US goals in the region” is accurate,

It may be that that hawks are thinking this way: Destroy Lebanon, and destroy Hizbullah, and you reduce Iran’s strategic depth. Destroy the Iranian nuclear program and you leave it helpless and vulnerable to having done to it what the Israelis did to Lebanon. You leave it vulnerable to regime change, and a dragooning of Iran back into the US sphere of influence, denying it to China and assuring its 500 tcf of natural gas to US corporations. You also politically reorient the entire Gulf, with both Saddam and Khamenei gone, toward the United States. Voila, you avoid peak oil problems in the US until a technological fix can be found, and you avoid a situation where China and India have special access to Iran and the Gulf.

The second American Century ensues. The “New Middle East” means the “American Middle East.”

And it all starts with the destruction of Lebanon.

frog says

Published in Environment & Resource Management | Justice & Democracy by frog on Tue, August 8th, 2006   

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