Good and bad

by frog

Well, the final election result has some good and bad news for the centre-left.

Firstly, the bad: the Greens have not picked up an extra seat on the specials. Nandor will not be a Green MP over the next three years, which is desperately sad. Our thoughts are with him and his family today. The party’s sadness will be deepened by how desperately close we were to getting a seventh seat. Had the Greens got 1,246 more votes – or 0.0545% of the total – Nandor would be back in Parliament. Alas, it was not to be.

Second, the good: the Maori Party has increased its vote enough to reduce the overhang by one seat, taking one seat off National. This changes the make-up of Parliament thus:

Labour: 50 seats
National: 48 seats
NZ First: 7 seats
Greens: 6 seats
Maori Party: 4 seats
United: 3 seats
Act: 2 seats
Progressives: 1 seat

So, the number of votes in the House needed for a majority is reduced by one – from 62 to 61. This does change Helen Clark’s options. If she were to, say, form an LPG Government, it would have 57 seats. She would need four more votes for confidence and supply. She could look left to the Maori Party or the right to NZ First. Had the overhang not been reduced, things wouldn’t have been as simple as this. So, good news for the centre-left.

Also, the difference between Labour and National has increased – to two full percentage points, and from 22,751 votes on election night to 45,506 votes in the final results. So, the margin has doubled.

But the heartbreak today is for the Greens and Nandor. Had we got 1,246 more votes, Nandor would have been back, at the expense of another National MP. We would have been up to seven seats, and National down to 47, changing the completion of Parliament even more in the centre-left’s favour. So near, yet so far. The 5,748 people who ticked Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party may wish to reflect on these bald facts.

More analysis to follow throughout the day…

frog says

Published in Campaign by frog on Sat, October 1st, 2005   


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