One day to go…
Chief electoral officer David Henry has been seemingly playing a game of cat-and-mouse with journalists about the specials announcement. Could it be Thursday? Could it be Friday? Could it be Sunday?
Well, no, it’s going to be Saturday - the original target day for the final announcement of the election results. But, just to prove that the counting has been going smoothly, the results will be announced a full three hours early: 11am instead of the original target of 2pm. Congratulations all round!
I shan’t be making any predictions about the specials except these three:
- The Greens will be above the 5% threshold.
- Any change in seat allocation - if there is one - will be of benefit to the Labour/Progressive/Green bloc.
- Labour will have more votes than National.
The other aspect of the specials announcement that nobody seems to have commented on is the chance that some electorates will change hands. The smallest margins are (with the number of specials cast in 2002 in those electorates in brackets):
Otaki: Darren Hughes by 226 (2381)
Rotorua: Steve Chadwick by 532 (1962)
Tauranga: Bob Clarkson by 568 (2956)
Hamilton West: Martin Gallagher by 688 (2632)
Green supporters will remember that Jeanette lost the Coromandel electorate in 1999 on election night by 114 votes, only to get a 250-vote victory after the 2,883 specials were counted. This was a smaller election-night margin to overcome than any of the MPs above have, but it does show that a several hundred vote swing on the specials is possible.
However, if any of the above electorates do change hands, the overall make-up of Parliament won’t change.
September 30th, 2005 at 12:43 pm
Frog:
Don’t be a silly bugger. David Henry wasn’t playing “cat and mouse” at all. He was being properly cautious after the local body debacle last year - and the select committee toasting the agency he headed got for, among other things, setting unrealistic deadlines that got pushed back time and again.
September 30th, 2005 at 1:14 pm
Craig: the cat and mouse reference was derived from articles that have appeared in papers suggesting everything from Thursday to Sunday as the day the specials will come out…
September 30th, 2005 at 1:15 pm
I hasten to add: i have no problem whatsoever with David Henry being cautious
September 30th, 2005 at 5:44 pm
Frog:
Well, I know the media gets rather twitchy when there isn’t an impending apocaypse every news cycle but, as far as I know, Henry set down provisional deadlines with enough caveats to choke a horse. I don’t know about anyone else, but to me the phrase “cat and mouse” implies Henry was being evasive or *ahem* less than entirely candid with journalists.
Hell, there are enough real problems that need to be addressed - like making sure only properly qualified human beings are enrolled to vote, and then only once. And I’ve certainly been sharply critical of Henry in the past. I just want to give the poor sod a little credit where it’s due.