frogblog

Another poll out this morning continues to show a very tight race between Labour and National: this one with National ahead 44/41. However, I guess the big news is NZ First down at 4%, allied with Winston Peters facing a double-digit deficit to the National candidate in Tauranga. If both these polls were translated into reality on election night, Winston would be out of Parliament.

While I’d be the first person to celebrate NZ First’s demise, we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves here. It’s certainly true that Winston has run a truly wretched campaign. It may go down as the worst campaign since, well, National’s campaign in 2002. However, here are three reasons why I’d bet against NZ First being swept out Parliament:

• Winston has great political cunning and will have something up his sleeve for the final few weeks. He’ll figure out a way to out-smart or smear Bob Clarkson in Tauranga and the National Party in general.
• NZ First being below the threshold is a function of National and Labour both being very strong in the polls - above 40%. Winston gets his support from people traditionally aligned with the two main parties, but grumpy at them. He’ll only perish if both National and Labour manage to hold things together well enough so that their support remains comfortably about 40%. I consider that highly unlikely. One would expect the election to fall either Labour or National’s way, and for there to be a clear winner a few days out, and then for scraps from the “losing major party” to fall to third parties.
• If Winston could survive 1999 - when there was much more disatisfaction with him among his potential support base than there is now - he can survive 2005.

I genuinely hope I’m wrong, and that Winston is consigned to the history books by the 2005 election. Who knows, Don Brash’s greatest legacy in revitalising the National Party could be removing a particularly ugly blight from the New Zealand political scene. For that, people right across the political spectrum would thank him heartily.

I’ve added the new poll figures into frogblog’s average. There’s no change in the make-up of Parliament, but Labour’s lead is down to 2 points (from around 5 at its peak). The new charts and data are here.

Bookmark to: