Is victory around the corner?
Respected tipsheet Molesworth & Featherston has called the election for the LPG team. Its latest edition says:
Yes, yes, nothing is ever over until it’s over and a week, not to mention three, is a long time in politics. But the initial reaction to the tax cut package from National, added to the email leak to the Sunday newspapers and an ongoing policy fragility - even absence in some areas - does not suggest Don Brash is going to eat far into Labour’s lead in the remaining time before polling day. The lead is now up over five percentage points.
On the basis of poll numbers, the private mood of party camps and our own view of the road ahead, Molesworth & Featherston is calling this election: We predict Labour will lead the next government.
Helen Clark has been sprinkling, judiciously, talk of a “Labour-Progressive-Green” Government having the numbers (the LPG administration we have been talking about for some time). With 63 seats in this poll they would have a more comfortable majority than the outgoing Government. In the past week a resurgent Green party has moved into third place, slicing a few votes from
Labour. New Zealand First has actually improved a little, but struggles to capture the limelight.Again, the relative ratings on the left look remarkably similar to the 2002 result. There is one more seat for Labour at the expense of the Progressives, and a small improvement in Labour’s overall result, but otherwise it is bang on. On the right National has bled Act white, reduced United Future to a rump and taken the cream off New Zealand First’s 2002 result, but it is still not in a position to construct an alternative Government…
If Molesworth & Featherston’s prediction of a Labour-led government becomes widely shared, the final week may yet see something like the entire campaign of 2002 when coalition options seemed to trump the contest between the big two.
I wouldn’t be so bullish. I certainly think an LPG victory is much more likely than a National one, but anything can happen in an election campaign. I’ll be needing much more polling information before I’m prepared to call this election 
August 31st, 2005 at 10:41 am
OK, so it’s hard to call exactly what the make-up of the election will be. Anything could happen to the Greens. But there are a few things that are very clear at this point.
There are five major players - Labour, National, Green, NZF, Maori.
Other players will only get one seat at most.
NATIONAL HAS NO COALITION PARTNERS. I don’t think this will change.
ACT won’t suddenly poll higher.
United Future won’t suddenly poll higher.
The others are offended.
I accept that Winston Peters is erratic enough to change his mind at any time here, but that would mean a coalition of 4th + 2nd most popular parties.
As opposed to Labour who can have 1st + 3rd most popular… and still have options for more support.
It’s really a no brainer that Brash hasn’t got a show at being PM.
August 31st, 2005 at 12:30 pm
Oh how amazing. The publication produced by Jim Anderton’s former press secretary predicts a left wing win.
August 31st, 2005 at 12:42 pm
c’mon frog ..call it..
we at whoar called it way back when..(february..from memory)..we predicted the fade of peters..and why..we called the disasterous brash/national campaign .and why…
we also made the call that the greens don’t scare the horses any more..and will crack 10% on the night..and a lab/grn govt the end result….
the only call we made that is looking a tad shakey..is that act will get back in on the back of the collapse of the national vote…though i’m still calling it….and will be ok with a possible end result of being wrong on one call..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
August 31st, 2005 at 5:16 pm
I just find it funny you talking about the Liquified Petroleum Gas “party” on the Green party’s blog…