by Kennedy Graham
Just as international talks on climate change are taking place in Panama this week to prepare for the annual Conference of Parties (COP17) in Durban at the end of this year, Tuvalu is experiencing a fresh water crisis.
350 Moving Planet Day in Tuvalu
We can expect more climate-related crises and refugees as time goes by, even if we do get our act together (as a global community) and start to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
In Panama, Europe is calling for some sanity (i.e., action). Countries such as Denmark are stepping up to the plate. The new Danish Government has just announced bold climate change targets: reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020. This comes after the Government adopted a plan last year to phase out all fossil fuel consumption by 2050.
We can and must collectively take bold action. UN-backed scientists have warned that carbon emissions must peak by 2015 to avoid irreversible damage from climate change, with the growing incidence of extreme weather around the world likely to worsen.
That is 4 years from the moment you are reading this. It may already be too late for the people of Tuvalu and some other low-lying Pacific Islands, but it’s not too late for humanity.
We have an extraordinary opportunity right now to do things differently. In transforming our economy, we don’t need to trade off our wellbeing for the sake of the environment. They are one and the same.
That is why we have developed a plan to create green jobs, and have called on the Government to stop subsidising greenhouse polluters.
Published in Environment & Resource Management by Kennedy Graham on Tue, October 4th, 2011
Tags: climate change, COP 17, green jobs, tuvalu
More posts by Kennedy Graham | more about Kennedy Graham
on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
Tokelau has declared a state of emergency as well, due to the drought.
http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=63525
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Climate change could impact even closer to home:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/10398498/nz-marine-life-to-feel-effects-of-warming/
And for those who don’t believe in climate change, the rising CO2 levels will also impact on our marine life directly, due to increased ocean acidification.
Trevor.
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Don’t depend on the Herald – they make things up. Try this:
A simple forecasting scheme for predicting low rainfalls in Funafuti, Tuvalu
Vavae, Hilia
2008
Master of Science (MSc)
Abstract: The development of some ability for forecasting low rainfalls would be helpful in Tuvalu as rainwater is the only source of fresh water in the country. The subsurface water is brackish and saline so the entire country depends totally on rainwater for daily domestic supplies, agricultural and farming activities. More importantly, these atolls are often influenced by droughts which consequently make inadequate drinking water an issue. A simple graph-based forecasting scheme is developed and presented in this thesis for forecasting below average mean rainfall in Funafuti over the next n-month period. The approach uses precursor ocean surface temperature data to make predictions of below average rainfall for n = 1, 2 12. The simplicity of the approach makes it a suitable method for the country and thus for the Tuvalu Meteorological Service to use as an operational forecasting tool in the climate forecasting desk. The graphical method was derived from standardised monthly rainfalls from the Funafuti manual raingauge for the period January 1945 to July 2007. The method uses lag-1 and-lag 2 NINO4 sea surface temperatures to define whether prediction conditions hold. The persistence of predictability tends to be maintained when the observed NINO4 ocean surface temperatures fall below 26.0oC. Although the developed method has a high success probability of up to 80 percent, this can only be achieved when conditions are within the predictable field. A considerable number of below average rainfall periods are not within the predictable field and therefore cannot be forecast by this method. However, the graphical approach has particular value in warning when an existing drought is likely to continue.
Available online via
La Nina = drought
Also there is a PDO influence, so 1945-1978 more droughts, 1978-1998 less droughts, since 1998 more droughts. Unfortunately, more population now than 1945-1978
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Still in denial, Owen!
The only problem with scientists predictions on global warming is that it is happening faster than generally predicted.
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The Australian Seaframe measurement project found that most of the islands in that group are rising (some are falling) and that in particular Tuvalu was gaining land mass. The earth is dynamic and the Pacific is particularly so.
As the population of the islands has increased there has been increasing mining of the coral reefs for roads and the seas are breaking into the lagoons.
The drought cycles caused be El Nina are in the realm of meteorology rather than climatology. In other words you can be a vigorous warmist and still recognise that Tuvalu’s current problems are nothing to do with rising seas or unusual droughts. NIWA would seem to agree.
If aid is to be effective it has to be based on reality rather than speculation. IT seems that the urgent and ongoing need in Tuvalu is desalination plants and extra storage and reduced mining of the coral reefs.
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I find it a bit strange Owen that you argue for observation and measurement in this case, and I do not disagree about Tuvalu, and deny observations and measurement of rising temperatures,(Despite an observed solar minimum) ocean acidification, increase in range of tropical fauna, decreasing icecaps and glaciers, mostly, receding.
While I wish that we are wrong about anthropogenic global warming, all the observations support that it is happening.
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mcshane..you wd have been a phrenologist in a previous life..eh..?
..(specialising in fake-science..as ya do..eh..?..)
..and are you as certain of yr climate-change gobbledygook..
..as you are about yr claims that ‘hitler was a vegetarian’…?
..and are you proud that yr hysterical-foaming-accusations of nazi-dom..
…have now entered the vernacular as ‘doing a mcshane’..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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and of course…verbalising in support of climate-change denial…
..is known as a ‘mcshane-spray’…
..eh..?
..with a bit of luck you might make the (local) history books as a leading-luddite of this warming-era…
..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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What point are you trying to make with the Vavae thesis Owen? There doesn’t seem to be any evaluation of AGW in the thesis. Obviously impacts of AGW will interact with weather and other cycles. In this case there is a correlation between NINO (and PDO) indices and drought. Since these are based on SSTs one would expect fluctuations influenced by AGW to covary with these cycles. None of this says anything about AGW, certainly from this data it is impossible to say the drought has nothing to do with AGW (or that it is caused by AGW).
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There is no evidence to support people in Tuvalu etc migrating to New Zealand because they are about to sink beneath the sea. Such claims upset many of the residents who want to stay on their home island but just need a reliable supply of fresh water. We should help them get what they need rather than scare them without good cause.
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If you are citing Ockam’s razor, why is current cycle of La Nina and the PDO a simpler explanation than AGW?
And why do you bring up the issue of rising sea levels when the issue under discussion is the current drought?
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Tuvalu wasn’t always relying on rain water – the subterranean water wasn’t always brackish, with many blaming the US military and their excavations for roading projects as causal for the infiltration of the subterranean reservoirs with sea water.
The current drought may not be attributable to climate change – but it is not Tuvalu’s only problem. The land mass of atolls is indeed in flux – sometimes growing, sometimes shrinking, but again: this is not the pressing issue. The issue for Tuvalu is dying corals and growing severity of king tides. So: providing fresh water now does not solve Tuvalu’s problems by any means.
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The gap between what we are doing to combat AGW and what needs to be done to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees is widening:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/10400977/planet-far-away-on-climate-goals-study/
Trevor
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Owen, you are misusing the concept of Ockams razor (parsimony) to ignore uncertainty. Did you actually read the Vavae thesis you cited? If you did you should know that there are high levels of uncertainty and that the Tokelau drought cannot be explained by “simple, obvious data.”
Firstly, invoking parsimony is fine when all the data are available to explain an observation (as in a fifth form physics experiment). But when data are limited there is still a parsimonious explanation – but it is likely to be wrong (or at least incomplete), as the revision of many parsimonious scientific theories over the years has shown. Vavae’s data had limited explanatory power – the various La Nina and PDO indices Vavae tested only explain a small part of the observed rainfall pattern (r-squared all less then 0.12, see Vavae’s Table 2.2). With complex natural systems, uncertainty is a scientific fact. In this case probably less than 20% of the rainfall data is explained by La Nina and PDO indices. The other factors are not known and are probaby a multitude of interacting and factors that are hard to measure. They might include AGW, it might not. But the study doesn’t address this either way. Further, the data Vavae uses to predict droughts are only only predictive when NINO4 (an index to infer La Nina conditions based on Sea Surface Temperature data) drops below 26. From NOAA data NINO4 hasn’t been below 26 in the last few years (almost but not quite). Therefore the current drought is outside the predictive envelope of Vavae’s model and lies in the realm of uncertainty.
Secondly absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence. I don’t know of any data that show the Tuvalu drought is caused by AGW. But this is not evidence that it is not. It is large jump, and unsupported by the evidence you offer, to say, as you do, this is not caused by AGW. It is of course, very difficult to establish all the factors leading to a single event in a complex system. Which is why we have to recognise large areas of uncertainty.
Thirdly you are confusing proximate causes and ultimate causes. Even if the drought are explained by La Nina, the intensity of ENSO events is predicted to be increased by AGW. The proximate cause of the drought might well be La Nina/PDO, but the ultimate causes might include AGW.
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Joe, I can not disagree with just about everything you say. You certainly won’t find me arguing about the chaotic behaviour of complex systems and our limits to making long term predictions based simple linear based models.
However, policy is shaped by both science and politics.
The person who drew my attention to that research (you might to ponder the name of the author) has family in the Tokelau and spends much time there.
The politics surrounding this debate are fascinating. There are “two sides”.
One group, who seem to be the elite and certainly seem to be able to dominate news releases etc, are strongly attracted by the rising seas argument and use it to support arguments for much higher migration to New Zealand. They trot out a range of arguments – some listed by Karo above – which have one thing in common; nothing is their own fault and all their prevails are caused by foreigners and hence foreigners must supply the solution. Even the Americans get the blame. THe war ended in 1945.
The “other side” are those who want to remain living in their islands, and take responsibility for their own lives and problems and accept responsibility where it lies. Their immediate solution to their thirst is extra storage and desalination plants. And less mining of coral. They get discouraged when the foreign press blames everything on AGW because this creates the hopelessness of the cause. Seems to be the “locals” are the more Green of the two camps. They want to use science to breed salt resistant strains etc – but mainly take responsibility for their own damage to the environment.
Discount rates are very high if you are starving or dying of thirst. The costs and benefits of long term actions or outcomes are beyond the “event horizon” and of little consequence.
Sea level rising is of no importance to those families today.
I know whose side I am but I have been in favour of the politics of victimhood.
Please note; I have just been alerted to political debate and find it fascinating and informative. I have only scratched the surface but am keen to learn more.
You might call them”the migrators”
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Sorry, I stuffed up the edit process and sent that message unproofed. It should read:
Joe, I can not disagree with just about everything you say. You certainly won’t find me arguing about the chaotic behaviour of complex systems and our limits to making long term predictions based simple linear based models.
However, policy is shaped by both science and politics.
The person who drew my attention to that research (you might like to ponder the name of the author) has family in the Tokelau and spends much time there.
The politics surrounding this debate are fascinating. There are “two sides”.
One group, who seem to be the elite and certainly seem to be able to dominate news releases etc, are strongly attracted by the rising seas argument and use it to support arguments for much higher migration to New Zealand. They trot out a range of arguments – some listed by Karo above – which have one thing in common; nothing is their own fault and all their prevails are caused by foreigners and hence foreigners must supply the solution. Even the Americans get the blame.
The “other side” are those who want to remain living in their islands, and take responsibility for their own lives and problems and accept responsibility where it lies. Their immediate solution to their thirst is extra storage and desalination plants. And less mining of coral. They get discouraged when the foreign press blames everything on AGW because this creates the hopelessness of the cause. Seems to be the “locals” are the more Green of the two camps. They want to use science to breed salt resistant strains etc – but mainly take responsibility for their own damage to the environment.
Discount rates are very high if you are starving or dying of thirst. The costs and benefits of long term actions or outcomes are beyond the “event horizon” and of little consequence.
Sea level rising is of no importance to those families today.
I know whose side I am on but I have never been in favour of the politics of victimhood.
Please note; I have just been alerted to this political debate and find it fascinating and informative. I have only scratched the surface but am keen to learn more.
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Owen, sure that debate sounds interesting. But has little to do with the causes of drought that we were discussing. I haven’t really looked at the sea level rise/coral mining/salt water incursion problem and don’t really have an opinion. But I don’t find it hard to agree with both sides – the proximate problems Tuvalu face are going to be best sorted out by Tuvaluans who understand the local conditions – social, political and environmental. But it might be that the ultimate problem is beyond local control. Whether you like or dislike the politics, sometimes people are victims.
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The official report on the twenty years of Sea Frame measurements is here:
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/southpacific.pdf
Once the data is corrected for El Nino and El Nina events the rises and falls in sea level disappear.
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This comment on an Economist thread seems to be a good summary of what is causing the current drought.
The argument claims that the PDO and AMO phases can account for all recent global temp variations:
machani wrote:
Oct 6th 2011 8:04 GMT
The reason for the drought is because La Nina 2011 has already set in, and very early this year. This is the second La Nina in a row and the reason this happening is because the Pacific is cooling!
It’s the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) that are driving world temperatures. With the PDO in negative phase for almost 10 years, the sea surface temperatures of the Pacific are well below normal. The AMO is already past its peak and SSTs of the Atlantic are starting to fall towards normal.
Anyone interested in “climate change” should take note of this.
In the late 1990′s up to the 2000′s both the AMO and PDO were in positive phase and we had more El Ninos, warmer summers and more Arctic Ice Cap melting. But the trend of diminishing Sea Ice extent of the Arctic has slowed down, after the lowest extent in 2007.
Meanwhile, the Antarctic Ice cap actually grew slightly leaving global sea ice levels more or less constant and near the (satellite era) historic mean levels..
The world did warm by about 0.75 degrees Centigrade in the 20th century. The hottest year on record was 1998. It tied with 1935, when much of the Southwest US was turned into a dust bowl. (It was another time when both the PDO and AMO were is positive phase. Typically the AMO and PDO are in opposing phases).
Since 1998 temperatures have been flat and have actually begun to fall in the past few years. Temperatures in the stratosphere have drastically fallen, which is the main reason for the Ozone hole in the Arctic.
Current global temps are only about 0.2 degrees Centigrade above the last 30 year average. It is also about 0.5 degrees Centigrade BELOW what the IPCC’s computer models predicted it would be for 2010. Bottom line, the facts DO NOT support IPCC’s CO2 based computer models.
(Check out the chart titled “NCEP 1760×880 Hi_Resolution Temperature (2-meter) Anomalies ” in my source link below. These are actual satellite weather data).
Source(s):
Current World temps:
http://policlimate.com/weather/index.html
Check out the 8-day Anomaly graph:
http://policlimate.com/weather/current/raw_temp_8day_avg.png
AMO:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation
PDO:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation
(graph is out dated by a few years)
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Owen, that link is not to the official report on SEAFRAME. Gray, the author of this critique of the report, doesn’t explain how he reaches his conclusions – he seems to be looking at the graphs of raw data and making a subjective assessment of whether they show a trend – then deciding that any trend is due to ENSO cycles.
The claimed trend from the actual reports has already been adjusted (downwards) for barometric effects, which should remove impacts of cyclones etc. Gray seems to be looking at the graphs, making a subjective adjustment then saying “I don’t see a trend” and calling this a reanalysis. And the authors of the actual reports are at pains to point out that the time series is not long enough to accurately estimate a trend. Once again, any effect shown by this data is in the area of uncertainty.
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There is a link from the Journal article through to the official report.
I could not find a URL anwhere else – buried in commentaries.
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Now we can not stop climate change anyway. We must try our best to make the situation win by common consensus is created. Otherwise it makes no sense.
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Owen. Temperatures in the Stratosphere falling ARE A SIGN OF MORE HEAT BEING RETAINED LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE. The earth is radiating less excess heat.
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It is like claiming the internal temperature of a hot water cylinder is less after it is insulated, because the measured temperatures in the airing cupboard are less.
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Kerry,
Then how do you account for the falling temperatures in the Pacific Ocean – is that a sign of warming too.
Notice that NIWA reports attribute this drought to La Nina oscillations and have never mentioned AGW as a cause.
I am told this is sensible because the IPCC models have not included this in their scenarios.
Anyhow, this is a crisis facing these Pacific populations now and I just hope they and we do not get diverted by possibilities in the distant future. This has already happened in Christchurch and we do not want to repeat.
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Owen – what report are you refering to when you mention falling Pacific Ocean temperatures? We can’t answer the question without knowing which parts of the Pacific you are claiming to have falling temperatures.
AGW can cause ocean and air circulation patterns to change. This will cause some areas to become warmer and others cooler. Perhaps this is the cause of your cooling?
Trevor.
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Owen… failing to account for the PDO over the long term now, are we? The deep water temps? Whatever…
Notice that NIWA reports attribute this drought to La Nina oscillations and have never mentioned AGW as a cause.
I did, and I am not attributing this to AGW, and have stayed out of this ’til now as I agree with you that the drought there is a combination of population and weather issues, not a symptom of AGW. The population issue locally reflecting the population issue that globally drives our Carbon emissions but otherwise unrelated.
BJ
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It is good to see solar-powered desalination units are being sent to Tuvalu and not just fossil-fuel powered desalinators:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/10486565/solar-powered-desalination-unit-sent-to-tuvalu/
I suspect that Tuvalu can’t really afford the fossil fuels to keep running the non-solar desalinators, and of course they are trying to back moves to reduce rather than increse CO2 levels.
Trevor.
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One less climate change skeptic:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/11125386/sceptic-now-agrees-global-warming-is-real/
Richard Muller now agrees with the mainstream climate scientists – despite being backed by the Charles Koch Foundation.
Trevor.
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Global warming research confirmed by new study part financed by sceptics.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071
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The extremes are likely to get more extreme according to the IPCC:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/11242459/climate-change-linked-to-extreme-weather/
Trevor.
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One way to reduce CO2 emissions is to burn renewable fuels rather than natural gas or coal:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/11251845/forest-fuels-the-answer-after-gas-failure/
Trevor.
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A report just out has revealed National’s “Climate Change Policy” for what it really is:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/11332600/study-critical-of-climate-change-action/
“The joint study by University of Otago and Victoria University researchers says there has been a series of missed chances over the last three years to make a difference.”
Trevor.
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The Keep The Coal In The Hole Summer Festival is opposing Solid Energy’s plans for lignite:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/11332548/climate-change-campaign-support-southland-lignite-protest/
Trevor.
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CO2 emissions are rising faster than the IPCC’s 2007 “worst case scenario”!
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/11332550/biggest-jump-ever-in-global-warming-gases/
Trevor.
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http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/11329887/island-states-slam-pace-of-climate-talks/
and who can blame them?
Trevor.
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It is not just rising temperatures that we are causing:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/11300387/arabian-cyclones-intensified-by-s-asian-pollution-study/
Trevor.
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The World Bank agrees that Climate Change is the world’s most pressing environment issue, and will lead to more floods, extreme weather events, higher temperatures and more variable rainfall:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/11563871/climate-change-to-bring-more-floods-world-bank/
And John Key believes that we can grow the economy while ignoring such problems.
Trevor.
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The climate change news just continues getting worse:
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/11900199/greenhouse-gases-rise-to-record-high/
It is not just the level that’s at a new high – the rate of rise is increasing.
Trevor.
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Trevor and maybe others,
The new high in greenhouse gases, and the increased rate of increase, is bad news for many – but it may not be the many you had in mind. I don’t know if you have been following the debates surrounding a recently released draft of a chapter of the next IPPCC report. It has some bombshell commentaries as broadcast by Black of the BBC. For example:
“Uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability”.
Now the word “sign” may be confusing to lay readers, but anyone with training in maths will recognise that the “sign” being talked about is “plus” or “minus”. So that sentence means they do not know whether climate extremes are going up or down and the next clause says that the signals generated by models are relatively small compared to natural variability.
The contents of the leaks suggest strongly that what is causing all this uncertainty is the fact that, in spite of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases and the increased rate of increase, (which is clearly established by measurement) there is no sign of any coupling to global temperatures.
In fact, if anything, the “Global temperature” (insofar as there is such a thing) has been falling or stable.
And that is contrary to what the theory and the models predict. If we look at the temperature trends as measured, and look at the natural cycles, they seem to be more directly coupled.
So we could be in for a cold period of thirty or forty years.
It might be time to stock up on your cardies.
Of course many Governments are more receptive to such arguments now than they might have been because the idea of extra costs and disruption is not very attractive at the moment. Nothing will come out of Durban except a deliberate cooling of enthusiasm for drastic disruptive and immediate action – of any kind.
I regard the IPCC findings as very bad news because, as we all know, historically, warm is good and cold is bad. It was the mini-ice age that halted the great polynesian migration – including the great voyages to New Zealand and Easter Island. And of course it also fostered the Black Death that wiped out 40% of the European Population. (They kept records so we know) Goodness knows how many died elsewhere in the world.
We will soon be thankful for all the insulated houses. They will help us keep warm.
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Owen. Your comment “as we all know warm is good and cold is bad” is way off the mark. A large proportion of the world’s population live relatively close to the equator in areas that are naturally hotter than New Zealand and Europe. While warmer temperatures might be good for us, they are more likely to be disasterous for those hotter regions.
And irrespective of your views about AGW, rising CO2 levels specifically cause increased ocean acidification, which is bad news for shellfish and much of the ocean food chain.
And I have no idea of your source leading you to believe that the global temperature is currently falling or stable.
Trevor.
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