All those chemical toilets… what nasty chemicals do they use and is there a more biologically sound way all that potential nutrient could be utilised by using some other agent in them?
Fill-ewe, WTF is Bob Parker doing wrong? His job is to front to the media hoard and do the PR thing, thus allowing the real experts to get on with their jobs. Is that so offensive? Who would you rather play mouthpiece?
Are the GNS geologists holding out on us?
As someone who has a keen interest in geology I can’t understand why we are not being warned about a possible imminent rupture of the Alpine fault (or it’s northern offshoots).
The seismic activity in the past 8 years since 2003 has been greater than the previous 35! (since 1968) and it has almost all been in the South Island.
We need to have someone looking at the data and then making a call on the probability of a major rupture in areas other than Canterbury.
Last night on Campbell live we had a geologist talking about an “unravelling of seismic strain”, he was not talking only about Christchurch.
Is this as good as we are going to get? a 30 second summary on Campbell live?
The GNS needs to issue some official statements on the increased probability for the Alpine Fault, the Hope fault, and other faults potentially affected by events since 2003.
We appear to be in the middle of a period of major seismic activity, it will be too late to talk about it after the fact.
My local newspaper ran a headline yesterday: “Town will crumble in quake” turns out most of the buildings are no where near up to code.
The time is NOW to motivate councils, hospitals, and the public to get ready, it could save lives and even some infrastructure.
While dealing with various Government departments, (you know who you are) the numerous tactics that will be employed include but are not limited to: extensive delays in responding, sending the wrong forms, denial of receiving correspondence, none disclosure, passing the buck, not their department, false accusations, unqualified to comment, ignoring your requests, ignoring the evidence, using only parts of the legislation, not informing of changes, not answering the phone, distance to meetings and ridicule (sometimes public) to put you off from pursuing your apparent “rights” under our current legislation
Valis, could this be an issue where the limitations of the scientific method are being displayed for all to see?
I think our geologists do a wonderful job, but they are data collectors at the end of the day, perhaps some ‘theoretical geology’ is what is required. I want to know what the geologists ‘think’ will happen, not what they ‘know’.
Valis, could this be an issue where the limitations of the scientific method are being displayed for all to see?
Actually, the answer to this question, the implication being that something other than science is needed, is NO.
I think our geologists do a wonderful job, but they are data collectors at the end of the day,
Any good scientist is a data collector. That is a VERY GOOD THING and not to be disparaged.
perhaps some ‘theoretical geology’ is what is required.
Which is also based on all that data collected, along with the geologist’s training and intellect. Nothing that isn’t part of proper science already.
I want to know what the geologists ‘think’ will happen, not what they ‘know’.
As I said, both are important, particularly knowing which bits fall into ‘think’ and which into ‘know’.
That you’re not hearing what they think is the result of some other failure, perhaps simply no one yet asking the right questions, and is nothing to do with any perceived limits inherent in the scientific method.
There is loads of thopught put into the probability of earthquakes. As an example, go to Orion Energy’s web site, and download their Asset Management Plan.
Orion, then lines company that wires up power for Christchurch, paid for and took expert advice, and its in the plan. From memory, a 65% chance of a biq quake in the next 150 years. All their planning for responding to bad things happening is based on the relative probabilities of quakes, and ice / snow, and tsunami etc is based on those probabilites. For example: The four sets of oil-filled 66KV lines that the temporary overhead line has replaced were known and documented to be significantly at risk from earthquake, and the plan was to fix them, the work to be completed by 2014.
The problem is that Orion has now had its network trashed twice by ‘quake in less than six months, so they (and many other companies, not to mention communities) will want much better numbers out of the scientists. They’re probably feeling quite let down right now.
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Todd
Posted March 5, 2011 at 4:37 PM
This is interesting: So they stop the fracking in Arkansas, and like magic…the earthquakes STOP. Take a look at the live readings…
How about making predictions based on our current knowledge instead of treating the whole damned country as a seismic laboratory.
People live on this ‘lab’ and I think they need to know a bit more than what Campbell bloody live extracts from a geologist (that was even then a poor communicator).
And Valis, Ken ‘moon bat’ Ring predicted the last earthquake while the geologists sat on data.
Mr Ring did a better job than the scientists.
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SPC
Posted March 5, 2011 at 5:24 PM
Ring believes that the same moon gravitational pull that causes tides also cause earthquakes, and is now predicting another one with the Autumn equinox – get the link to astrology shunda? Around the time of the transfer from Aquarius to Pisces and from Pisces to Aries (Feb 20-22, March 20-22) earthquakes are predcited. Part of the old cosmic myth of as above so below, so watch for signs in the sky portending (forecasting by “experts”) events below.
Scientific method would involve identifying how many earthquakes occur (and the liklihood of being right say 1/10 times a prediction is made on average based on how often they occur) and whether they occur more often when the moons gravitational pull is higher than at other times. Is there any such evidence? And if there was, how could this could ever be actually be useful as to identifying the location of an earthquake.
Sure you do not have a residual anti-science legacy from the creation science vs evolution debates of some of the faithful vs the non believers?
How about making predictions based on our current knowledge instead of treating the whole damned country as a seismic laboratory.
I don’t know why they don’t make predictions. Could be that they that they do privately and haven’t gone public because their success rate is no better than random. Could even be that the info is being suppressed. But it has nothing to do with your illogical statements about the scientific method.
People live on this ‘lab’ and I think they need to know a bit more than what Campbell bloody live extracts from a geologist (that was even then a poor communicator).
Again, you may be raising some real issues here, but none argue against the scientific method as our best way of knowing about the physical world.
And Valis, Ken ‘moon bat’ Ring predicted the last earthquake while the geologists sat on data. Mr Ring did a better job than the scientists.
So is mr moon bat really the best you can offer as an alternative to science? Firstly, do you not realise that Ring argues that his methods are completely scientific? That this isn’t true doesn’t make it less ironic. Secondly, he makes predictions all the time and is usually wrong.
Sure you do not have a residual anti-science legacy from the creation science vs evolution debates of some of the faithful vs the non believers?
Now now Valis, don’t start twisting it all back on me.
I am not attacking the scientific method as such, it is a very good tool, in fact it is probably the best tool by far.
But it has limitations in it’s application in a rapidly developing event.
If geologists sat on information (and it is starting to look like they did) because of an approach that avoids risk of error, then I want to know about it.
There appears to be an over reliance on the scientific method in some fields of science that create a ‘can’t see the forest for the trees’ situation, I want to know if that is happening here.
I don’t have to twist, your words come back on you by themselves.
I am not attacking the scientific method as such, it is a very good tool, in fact it is probably the best tool by far.
Your words: “In a culture where the scientific method is king, we are probably doomed to walk backwards for some time yet.”
This is not subtle, nor easily misunderstood, except possibly by yourself. Sorry.
But it has limitations in it’s application in a rapidly developing event.
No it doesn’t. Incomplete knowledge is what limits us. Science doesn’t claim everything is knowable or predictable.
If geologists sat on information (and it is starting to look like they did) because of an approach that avoids risk of error, then I want to know about it.
Not saying we shouldn’t have all the info, but whether or not we get it says nothing about the scientific method. You just have to get over that.
There appears to be an over reliance on the scientific method in some fields of science that create a ‘can’t see the forest for the trees’ situation, I want to know if that is happening here.
You make this claim from time to time, but never offer anything reasonable to back it up. So there’s no reason to think it is happening here, because it isn’t true. Have you considered maybe you just don’t know what the scientific method is?
You make this claim from time to time, but never offer anything reasonable to back it up. So there’s no reason to think it is happening here
Well we’ll just have to wait and see then won’t we.
None so blind as those that claim to see.
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Todd
Posted March 5, 2011 at 7:26 PM
Good question Valis. Unfortunately that info is hard to find as most Council consents are not notified. I know there is fracking going on in the Naki. I’m not sure if there is any scientific evidence to show a correlation between fracking and earthquakes yet though, but being that the fracking explosion is essentially a mini earthquake in itself, fracking would be a pretty silly thing to undertake in New Zealand in terms of our fault lines.
There’s been a hell of a lot of earthquakes in Lyttleton, with seven in total including a 4.1 M today. I’m starting to think there needs to be a few more predictions from GNS. Surely they have enough test equipment in place and relative info to be able to quantify the likelihood of a major earthquake?
I support Ring’s theories in so far as the moon and other lunar bodies do in fact effect a gravitational pull on the earth and this could cause earthquakes, although I have not delved into his exact reasoning so cannot say whether or not he is a crack pot. It’s a pity he did not decide to present his ideas to the public, but after the down trou John Cambell gave him it is understandable. I guess with a lack of knowledge, it is pretty easy to side with Cambell’s reasoning.
Thanks Todd. I agree Ring’s basic premise sounds intuitive. I can’t find it now, but there are several statistical analyses of Ring’s predictions on the net suggesting that his method is little better than throwing darts.
Well Valis, if that fault line goes you may feel different, I will personally be in a lot of difficulty.
I follow the geology stuff quite closely, and I feel that there have been events since 2003 that should concern everyone in the South Island.
I hope I am wrong.
Well Valis, if that fault line goes you may feel different,
The fault line will go at some point Shunda, and no, I won’t feel different no matter when it does. There may be something that has let us down, or not, but it won’t be the scientific method itself.
I’m not aware that scientists hiding their opinions is at all a sizable problem, though what the media covers or not often is. Scientists often say what they think may happen, along with a probability of being correct, but when that is at the level of guessing, then it is understandable that they may not wish to predict. I do not know how confident geologists are with their predictions, only that I’ve always heard that they’re not very confident at all. And we have earthquakes all the time. Imagine if your prediction of magnitude was to empty a city every month. You’d require some pretty accurate knowledge before attempting it.
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Todd
Posted March 5, 2011 at 9:37 PM
I find myself split between a very serious debate concerning scientists and earthquake predictions and a comedic attempt to concisely describe the various political ethos. Oh well!
Imagine if your prediction of magnitude was to empty a city every month. You’d require some pretty accurate knowledge before attempting it.
I guess you’re right Valis, I am just trying to make sense of all this, I haven’t felt this sort of ‘earthquake anxiety’ before and I want to try and understand as much as I can about what may happen.
If the Alpine fault goes, we on the West Coast are going to be cut off for months, all major infrastructure will be down and rescue teams may take a long time to get here. I have 4 kids, and I am often working somewhere between Haast and Punakaiki, all sorts of things go through my mind like will I be cut off from my family? will my house stay standing? will people I love be killed?
Then the local paper tells us that the town centre will be destroyed and possibly the hospital as well.
It has been a stressful time down here of late!.
I live in Wellington and we face being cut off too, though I expect aid might get here more quickly regardless. What can we do? Either accept the risk of living in these otherwise wonderful places and prepare as best we can, or shift to Auckland? We all have a choice. I’m staying put for now.
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Todd
Posted March 5, 2011 at 10:20 PM
I wouldn’t be so sure that Auckland is any safer. I guess that uncertainty is the price we pay for living in Gods own. Fear is a very dangerous thing though and can lead to many worse situations than what caused that fear in the first place. Personally I like living on the coast, the fear of a tsunami will probably not make me move either.
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john-ston
Posted March 5, 2011 at 10:52 PM
Around the time of the transfer from Aquarius to Pisces and from Pisces to Aries (Feb 20-22, March 20-22) earthquakes are predcited.
Except that those dates are completely inaccurate and have been for hundreds of years. At the present, the transfer from Aquarius to Pisces occurs on March 11, and the transfer from Pisces to Aries occurs on April 18.
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SPC
Posted March 6, 2011 at 1:27 AM
If you want to take that seriously in what hemisphere – north or south?
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SPC
Posted March 6, 2011 at 2:11 AM
The Bank of England readies itself to take over banking regulation, with a warning to banks, and about the banks behaviour to the rest of us.
My understanding (and I haven’t read much of this) was that it was never an astrological prediction, that it was purely a gravity based prediction and the lunar position and proximity does create a moving gravitational anomaly and miniscule change in the shape of the earth. Tidal forces are most certainly felt in the lithosphere. They are indeed quite small.
That means that they can theoretically affect the probable timing of quakes. Not magnitudes.
Facebook comment hiding works now (click the refresh button on your browser to ensure you have the latest changes). Sorry about the sloppy testing during deployment.
The Public Health Association (PHA) says today’s call by The New Zealand Medical Association (NZMA) for the Government and Health Sector urgently to address inequalities is further endorsement that we’ve had the wrong health focus for too long.
When one looks across the Arab world today at the stunning spontaneous democracy uprisings, it is impossible to not ask: What are we doing spending $110 billion this year supporting corrupt and unpopular regimes in Afghanistan and Pakistan that are almost identical to the governments we’re applauding the Arab people for overthrowing?
he is on such a high spin-cycle..fears are held for brain-damage from centrifugal-forces…
..he tried a post telling us all we haven’t had it so good..as under national/key…
..and the general guffawing/scoffing this has generated is causing him to lose his rag…
“..you are very wrong unless you are making over 100 grand a year. Is that how much Key is paying you to spin on your blog?
[DPF: 20 demerits for the last sentence. Everything I blog is my honest opinion and I effectively lose money blogging…”
brilliant compartmentalisation there..eh..?
farrar/his polling company … gets no financial-rewards for spinning for key/national..
..right ho..!
..fly..!..make up another name…
..and go and see if you can beat yr previous record for a life-ban…
..this penguin is ripe for poking…
..he is positively truculent..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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Todd
Posted March 6, 2011 at 8:26 PM
The best one I read today was some turkey baster saying Shonkey “actually understood the plight of the needy because he had worked for Merrill Lynch.” WTF! They must have upped whatever they’re putting in their water lately.
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Trevor29
Posted March 6, 2011 at 10:31 PM
I don’t know of any country successfully predicting earthquakes. I would guess that GNS would have an even harder job trying to predict earthquakes in New Zealand because there is much less historical data to go on and New Zealand is a young country. To make matters worse, in the Canterbury region (and probably other), many of the fault lines have been covered over with shingle, making them harder to discover.
However GNS have been making predictions. I haven’t tried searching for them but there is one prediction or forecast that states that there is a 50% probability of the main Alpine Fault moving in the next 50 years, causing an earthquake of around magnitude 8, and a 75% probability of that in the next 100 years. (I may have the actual percentages wrong.) They also predicted a good chance of a magnitude 6.1 quake as an aftershock of the 7.1, and commentators thought the Boxing Day quake was that quake, which may indicate a misunderstanding of the prediction.
I believe that we have been led into a false sense of security because of the lack of seismic activity over the past few decades.
I believe that we have been led into a false sense of security because of the lack of seismic activity over the past few decades.
I think that is the real issue trevor, the period of “quiet” since 1968 was probably far more unusual than what is happening now.
It would be interesting to see the probabilities for the Alpine fault recalculated after the events since 2003 and particularly the subduction thrust event (7.8) in Fiordland in 2009.
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Todd
Posted March 7, 2011 at 8:48 AM
This website appears to be blocked from your country = The Jackal
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Dobbie
Posted March 8, 2011 at 2:52 PM
I am wondering what to make of the armed offenders patrolling Chch with their sidearms. Saw it on the news last night and the the story went that they are ‘supporting their brethren by pitching in and helping with patrolling’. Cool but why do they need their sidearms? Can anybody shed some light on this?
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SPC
Posted March 8, 2011 at 3:14 PM
A look at the official information papers regarding the increase in the minimum wage.
Recently Parliament had its second reading of Nationals Foreshore and Seabed bill MK2, which has been highly controversial. Now Independent MP Hone Harawira strongly opposed the bill and the toll of trying to uphold the mandate given to him by his people is one he is undertaking with dignity…
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photonz1
Posted March 8, 2011 at 9:38 PM
Dobbie asks “:Cool but why do they need their sidearms? Can anybody shed some light on this?”
Yes – they are very effective for shooting looters.
And even more effective at getting looters to not loot in the first place.
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Dobbie
Posted March 9, 2011 at 10:46 AM
Photonz – “they are very effective for shooting looters’\
….like autistic guys taking light fittings? It is my understanding that cops on patrol in NZ do not carry firearms. Hence if the armed offenders want to ‘support their brothers’ shouldn’t they be doing it sans sidearms?
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Leave a Reply
Please use on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
a new game/competition:..
summarise a political party in one pithy-phrase…
i’ll kick-off…with my take on national:
‘screw you jack..!..i’ve got mine..!’
..act..if bereft..could also borrow it…
labour:..
‘we know we know…”
new zealand first:..
‘look..!..over there..!’
greens:..
..’i am expectant..therefor i am..’
(or..) ‘..waiting for godot..’
maori party:..
..’just you wait and see..’
hone party:
‘hear the oppressed roar’..
dunne:..
..’..nothing..’
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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The Greens: If it’s fun, ban it!
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um..!..no..
they want to legalise it…i think…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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Greens ?
There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch.
BJ
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National: If you can’t blame labour, blame the victims.
Labour: We love all the little guys, no really we do.
Greens: Hey! We’re over here.
Maori: Do what I say, not as I do.
Act: Abandon ship!
NZ First: Light em up, we’re going down.
Hone: Walk the talk.
Dunne: You can’t all fit in my dingy.
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Looks like Brownlee has had a few too many free lunches to me.
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is anyone else using parker-avoidance in their earthquake coverage watching…?
..i have been for some days now…
..when he appears…
..i head for the opposition..
..sometimes i have been trapped…
…by both channels taking the parker-feed…
..but in the main it works..
i mean..a person can only take so much unction..eh..?
..before crying..’enough!’…
..and the man positively oozes it/trowels it on…
..phil(whoar.co.nz)
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greens:..
..’twelve years in a leaky boat’….
labour:..
..don’t judge us on what we did..
national:..
..’see..!..same old..!..same old..!’
national:..
…’fooled-ya..!’..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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All those chemical toilets… what nasty chemicals do they use and is there a more biologically sound way all that potential nutrient could be utilised by using some other agent in them?
Fill-ewe, WTF is Bob Parker doing wrong? His job is to front to the media hoard and do the PR thing, thus allowing the real experts to get on with their jobs. Is that so offensive? Who would you rather play mouthpiece?
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I like the national “fooled-ya” … very succinct.
BJ
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Phil on Parker-avoidance.
Ohhhhhh yes!
One glimpse and I’m off.
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As someone who has a keen interest in geology I can’t understand why we are not being warned about a possible imminent rupture of the Alpine fault (or it’s northern offshoots).
The seismic activity in the past 8 years since 2003 has been greater than the previous 35! (since 1968) and it has almost all been in the South Island.
We need to have someone looking at the data and then making a call on the probability of a major rupture in areas other than Canterbury.
Last night on Campbell live we had a geologist talking about an “unravelling of seismic strain”, he was not talking only about Christchurch.
Is this as good as we are going to get? a 30 second summary on Campbell live?
The GNS needs to issue some official statements on the increased probability for the Alpine Fault, the Hope fault, and other faults potentially affected by events since 2003.
We appear to be in the middle of a period of major seismic activity, it will be too late to talk about it after the fact.
My local newspaper ran a headline yesterday: “Town will crumble in quake” turns out most of the buildings are no where near up to code.
The time is NOW to motivate councils, hospitals, and the public to get ready, it could save lives and even some infrastructure.
Ps, I posted this on Kiwiblog yesterday as well.
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WTF is Bob Parker doing wrong?
Nothing samiam, it is just a position you must hold if you are on the left.
You simply must.
It’s just the way it is.
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Good post re GNS Shunda. Let’s hope there’s a bit more information getting disseminated around the place.
I don’t personally have anything against old Bob. Although I haven’t been watching much TV to become sensitized to his snake like charms.
Here’s a new post on The Jackal: The Destructive System
http://thejackalman.blogspot.com/2011/03/destructive-system.html
While dealing with various Government departments, (you know who you are) the numerous tactics that will be employed include but are not limited to: extensive delays in responding, sending the wrong forms, denial of receiving correspondence, none disclosure, passing the buck, not their department, false accusations, unqualified to comment, ignoring your requests, ignoring the evidence, using only parts of the legislation, not informing of changes, not answering the phone, distance to meetings and ridicule (sometimes public) to put you off from pursuing your apparent “rights” under our current legislation
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I do hope that’s the dumbest thing you say today, Shunda. But the day is still young.
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So what is your take on the current seismic activity Valis?
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It’s a worry.
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Valis, could this be an issue where the limitations of the scientific method are being displayed for all to see?
I think our geologists do a wonderful job, but they are data collectors at the end of the day, perhaps some ‘theoretical geology’ is what is required. I want to know what the geologists ‘think’ will happen, not what they ‘know’.
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Both would be good.
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Super.
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“..Who would you rather play mouthpiece?..”
perhaps someone not quite so unctuous..?
..it sticks to you…
..after a while…
..that unction..
..and it won’t just wash out…
..you have to use the extra-strength napi-san..
..and even then it still leaves a faint stain…
..phil(whoar.co.nz)
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everyone seems puzzled as to where that 22 bodies in the cathedral story came from…
http://whoar.co.nz/2011/commentwhoarno-bodies-are-found-in-christchurch-cathedralwtf-was-that-cop-smoking/
the good news this morning is that there are no bodies in the rubble of christchurch cathedral..
..yet..for some time…we have been told that there were about 22 bodies under that rubble..
..and officials are now claiming not to know where that estimated figure came from..
..well..i can tell them..’cos i reported this back when..
..and that estimate came from a police spokesperson during a media briefing..
..and he informed us that a policeman had seen the cathedral collapse..
..and that this policeman had told him that was the number he estimated were buried in the rubble…
..as i said in the headline…
…w.t.f. was that cop smoking…?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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Pot?
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Actually, the answer to this question, the implication being that something other than science is needed, is NO.
I think our geologists do a wonderful job, but they are data collectors at the end of the day,
Any good scientist is a data collector. That is a VERY GOOD THING and not to be disparaged.
perhaps some ‘theoretical geology’ is what is required.
Which is also based on all that data collected, along with the geologist’s training and intellect. Nothing that isn’t part of proper science already.
I want to know what the geologists ‘think’ will happen, not what they ‘know’.
As I said, both are important, particularly knowing which bits fall into ‘think’ and which into ‘know’.
That you’re not hearing what they think is the result of some other failure, perhaps simply no one yet asking the right questions, and is nothing to do with any perceived limits inherent in the scientific method.
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nah..!..to have seen 22 people that weren’t there..
..that wd have to be some serious pot..
..i’m picking mid-strength hallucinogens..?
..maybe pcp…?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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Cops don’t do drugs phil u, it’s all simulated.
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maybe he was just over-acting…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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There is loads of thopught put into the probability of earthquakes. As an example, go to Orion Energy’s web site, and download their Asset Management Plan.
Orion, then lines company that wires up power for Christchurch, paid for and took expert advice, and its in the plan. From memory, a 65% chance of a biq quake in the next 150 years. All their planning for responding to bad things happening is based on the relative probabilities of quakes, and ice / snow, and tsunami etc is based on those probabilites. For example: The four sets of oil-filled 66KV lines that the temporary overhead line has replaced were known and documented to be significantly at risk from earthquake, and the plan was to fix them, the work to be completed by 2014.
The problem is that Orion has now had its network trashed twice by ‘quake in less than six months, so they (and many other companies, not to mention communities) will want much better numbers out of the scientists. They’re probably feeling quite let down right now.
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This is interesting: So they stop the fracking in Arkansas, and like magic…the earthquakes STOP. Take a look at the live readings…
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/quakes_big.php
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How extensively are we being fracked?
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They’re probably feeling quite let down right now.
In a culture where the scientific method is king, we are probably doomed to walk backwards for some time yet.
Talk about a one tool toolbox.
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WTF are you talking about? What culture do you think is superior in developing factual information about the physical world? How do they do this?
Talk about a one tool toolbox.
Care to enlighten us just what other tool would be useful to employ regarding our knowledge of earthquakes? Divining? Ken Ring perhaps?
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How about making predictions based on our current knowledge instead of treating the whole damned country as a seismic laboratory.
People live on this ‘lab’ and I think they need to know a bit more than what Campbell bloody live extracts from a geologist (that was even then a poor communicator).
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And Valis, Ken ‘moon bat’ Ring predicted the last earthquake while the geologists sat on data.
Mr Ring did a better job than the scientists.
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Ring believes that the same moon gravitational pull that causes tides also cause earthquakes, and is now predicting another one with the Autumn equinox – get the link to astrology shunda? Around the time of the transfer from Aquarius to Pisces and from Pisces to Aries (Feb 20-22, March 20-22) earthquakes are predcited. Part of the old cosmic myth of as above so below, so watch for signs in the sky portending (forecasting by “experts”) events below.
Scientific method would involve identifying how many earthquakes occur (and the liklihood of being right say 1/10 times a prediction is made on average based on how often they occur) and whether they occur more often when the moons gravitational pull is higher than at other times. Is there any such evidence? And if there was, how could this could ever be actually be useful as to identifying the location of an earthquake.
Sure you do not have a residual anti-science legacy from the creation science vs evolution debates of some of the faithful vs the non believers?
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I don’t know why they don’t make predictions. Could be that they that they do privately and haven’t gone public because their success rate is no better than random. Could even be that the info is being suppressed. But it has nothing to do with your illogical statements about the scientific method.
People live on this ‘lab’ and I think they need to know a bit more than what Campbell bloody live extracts from a geologist (that was even then a poor communicator).
Again, you may be raising some real issues here, but none argue against the scientific method as our best way of knowing about the physical world.
And Valis, Ken ‘moon bat’ Ring predicted the last earthquake while the geologists sat on data. Mr Ring did a better job than the scientists.
So is mr moon bat really the best you can offer as an alternative to science? Firstly, do you not realise that Ring argues that his methods are completely scientific? That this isn’t true doesn’t make it less ironic. Secondly, he makes predictions all the time and is usually wrong.
Sure you do not have a residual anti-science legacy from the creation science vs evolution debates of some of the faithful vs the non believers?
Spot on, SPC.
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You chaps are unbelievable.
Where did I say I was a supporter of Ring-a-ling?
My point is we would have been better off listening to a ‘moon bat’ than a geologist regarding 22 Feb.
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You can’t answer any of the questions above, but we’re unbelievable. I’ve said before, I do at least admire your chutzpa.
And sorry, defending Ring in the context of dissing science implies support.
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Now now Valis, don’t start twisting it all back on me.
I am not attacking the scientific method as such, it is a very good tool, in fact it is probably the best tool by far.
But it has limitations in it’s application in a rapidly developing event.
If geologists sat on information (and it is starting to look like they did) because of an approach that avoids risk of error, then I want to know about it.
There appears to be an over reliance on the scientific method in some fields of science that create a ‘can’t see the forest for the trees’ situation, I want to know if that is happening here.
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I am not attacking the scientific method as such, it is a very good tool, in fact it is probably the best tool by far.
Your words: “In a culture where the scientific method is king, we are probably doomed to walk backwards for some time yet.”
This is not subtle, nor easily misunderstood, except possibly by yourself. Sorry.
But it has limitations in it’s application in a rapidly developing event.
No it doesn’t. Incomplete knowledge is what limits us. Science doesn’t claim everything is knowable or predictable.
If geologists sat on information (and it is starting to look like they did) because of an approach that avoids risk of error, then I want to know about it.
Not saying we shouldn’t have all the info, but whether or not we get it says nothing about the scientific method. You just have to get over that.
There appears to be an over reliance on the scientific method in some fields of science that create a ‘can’t see the forest for the trees’ situation, I want to know if that is happening here.
You make this claim from time to time, but never offer anything reasonable to back it up. So there’s no reason to think it is happening here, because it isn’t true. Have you considered maybe you just don’t know what the scientific method is?
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You make this claim from time to time, but never offer anything reasonable to back it up. So there’s no reason to think it is happening here
Well we’ll just have to wait and see then won’t we.
None so blind as those that claim to see.
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Good question Valis. Unfortunately that info is hard to find as most Council consents are not notified. I know there is fracking going on in the Naki. I’m not sure if there is any scientific evidence to show a correlation between fracking and earthquakes yet though, but being that the fracking explosion is essentially a mini earthquake in itself, fracking would be a pretty silly thing to undertake in New Zealand in terms of our fault lines.
Here’s what the Jackal says: http://thejackalman.blogspot.com/2011/02/about-fracking.html
There’s been a hell of a lot of earthquakes in Lyttleton, with seven in total including a 4.1 M today. I’m starting to think there needs to be a few more predictions from GNS. Surely they have enough test equipment in place and relative info to be able to quantify the likelihood of a major earthquake?
I support Ring’s theories in so far as the moon and other lunar bodies do in fact effect a gravitational pull on the earth and this could cause earthquakes, although I have not delved into his exact reasoning so cannot say whether or not he is a crack pot. It’s a pity he did not decide to present his ideas to the public, but after the down trou John Cambell gave him it is understandable. I guess with a lack of knowledge, it is pretty easy to side with Cambell’s reasoning.
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Just felt an aftershock here in Greymouth, so must have been reasonably big over the hill.
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None so blind as those that claim to see.
You’re the one that claims to be seeing things. Platitudes won’t help you.
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Thanks Todd. I agree Ring’s basic premise sounds intuitive. I can’t find it now, but there are several statistical analyses of Ring’s predictions on the net suggesting that his method is little better than throwing darts.
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Well Valis, if that fault line goes you may feel different, I will personally be in a lot of difficulty.
I follow the geology stuff quite closely, and I feel that there have been events since 2003 that should concern everyone in the South Island.
I hope I am wrong.
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Well Valis, if that fault line goes you may feel different,
The fault line will go at some point Shunda, and no, I won’t feel different no matter when it does. There may be something that has let us down, or not, but it won’t be the scientific method itself.
I will personally be in a lot of difficulty.
I am very sorry for that.
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There may be something that has let us down, or not, but it won’t be the scientific method itself.
Ok then, whatever, but do you think that sometimes scientists should tell us more about what may happen? you know, like with global warming
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4.8 M focal depth 11 km. 5 km out of Lyttleton @ 6:34. I’m worried! http://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/quakes/3474093g.html
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labour:..
..’once were warriors..’
new zealand first..
..’boo..!’…
national…
..’tories’…
..greens…
..’oxymorons’…
hone party..
..’will be warriors’…
act…
..’me’…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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I find myself split between a very serious debate concerning scientists and earthquake predictions and a comedic attempt to concisely describe the various political ethos. Oh well!
National: Take the money and run.
Labour: Better the devil you know.
Greens: I love my little choo choo!
Maori Party: Where’s my prenup.
Act: Sell sell sell!
NZ First: The comeback kid.
Hone: Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.
Dunne: Who used up all the blue crayon?
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Imagine if your prediction of magnitude was to empty a city every month. You’d require some pretty accurate knowledge before attempting it.
I guess you’re right Valis, I am just trying to make sense of all this, I haven’t felt this sort of ‘earthquake anxiety’ before and I want to try and understand as much as I can about what may happen.
If the Alpine fault goes, we on the West Coast are going to be cut off for months, all major infrastructure will be down and rescue teams may take a long time to get here. I have 4 kids, and I am often working somewhere between Haast and Punakaiki, all sorts of things go through my mind like will I be cut off from my family? will my house stay standing? will people I love be killed?
Then the local paper tells us that the town centre will be destroyed and possibly the hospital as well.
It has been a stressful time down here of late!.
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I live in Wellington and we face being cut off too, though I expect aid might get here more quickly regardless. What can we do? Either accept the risk of living in these otherwise wonderful places and prepare as best we can, or shift to Auckland? We all have a choice. I’m staying put for now.
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I wouldn’t be so sure that Auckland is any safer. I guess that uncertainty is the price we pay for living in Gods own. Fear is a very dangerous thing though and can lead to many worse situations than what caused that fear in the first place. Personally I like living on the coast, the fear of a tsunami will probably not make me move either.
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Except that those dates are completely inaccurate and have been for hundreds of years. At the present, the transfer from Aquarius to Pisces occurs on March 11, and the transfer from Pisces to Aries occurs on April 18.
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If you want to take that seriously in what hemisphere – north or south?
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The Bank of England readies itself to take over banking regulation, with a warning to banks, and about the banks behaviour to the rest of us.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12655035
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My understanding (and I haven’t read much of this) was that it was never an astrological prediction, that it was purely a gravity based prediction and the lunar position and proximity does create a moving gravitational anomaly and miniscule change in the shape of the earth. Tidal forces are most certainly felt in the lithosphere. They are indeed quite small.
That means that they can theoretically affect the probable timing of quakes. Not magnitudes.
BJ
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Facebook comment hiding works now (click the refresh button on your browser to ensure you have the latest changes). Sorry about the sloppy testing during deployment.
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No probs frog
I really do hope the Government is listening:
http://www.voxy.co.nz/national/health-inequalities-quotnational-shamequot-preventable-pha/5/84652
The Public Health Association (PHA) says today’s call by The New Zealand Medical Association (NZMA) for the Government and Health Sector urgently to address inequalities is further endorsement that we’ve had the wrong health focus for too long.
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Thomas Friedman in today’s NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/06/opinion/06friedman.html?_r=1&smid=tw-NYTimesFriedman&seid=auto
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Good question. It would also seem that many of the right-wing blogs are starting to show signs of dissent today.
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breaking news..!..rabid rightwinger says something funny..!
..it was redbaiter…
..and he said:..
‘..keywiblog..’..
geddit..?..geddit…?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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They’re on fire today.
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yeah..farrar is fast losing it…
he is on such a high spin-cycle..fears are held for brain-damage from centrifugal-forces…
..he tried a post telling us all we haven’t had it so good..as under national/key…
..and the general guffawing/scoffing this has generated is causing him to lose his rag…
“..you are very wrong unless you are making over 100 grand a year. Is that how much Key is paying you to spin on your blog?
[DPF: 20 demerits for the last sentence. Everything I blog is my honest opinion and I effectively lose money blogging…”
brilliant compartmentalisation there..eh..?
farrar/his polling company … gets no financial-rewards for spinning for key/national..
..right ho..!
..fly..!..make up another name…
..and go and see if you can beat yr previous record for a life-ban…
..this penguin is ripe for poking…
..he is positively truculent..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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The best one I read today was some turkey baster saying Shonkey “actually understood the plight of the needy because he had worked for Merrill Lynch.” WTF! They must have upped whatever they’re putting in their water lately.
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I don’t know of any country successfully predicting earthquakes. I would guess that GNS would have an even harder job trying to predict earthquakes in New Zealand because there is much less historical data to go on and New Zealand is a young country. To make matters worse, in the Canterbury region (and probably other), many of the fault lines have been covered over with shingle, making them harder to discover.
However GNS have been making predictions. I haven’t tried searching for them but there is one prediction or forecast that states that there is a 50% probability of the main Alpine Fault moving in the next 50 years, causing an earthquake of around magnitude 8, and a 75% probability of that in the next 100 years. (I may have the actual percentages wrong.) They also predicted a good chance of a magnitude 6.1 quake as an aftershock of the 7.1, and commentators thought the Boxing Day quake was that quake, which may indicate a misunderstanding of the prediction.
I believe that we have been led into a false sense of security because of the lack of seismic activity over the past few decades.
Trevor.
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I believe that we have been led into a false sense of security because of the lack of seismic activity over the past few decades.
I think that is the real issue trevor, the period of “quiet” since 1968 was probably far more unusual than what is happening now.
It would be interesting to see the probabilities for the Alpine fault recalculated after the events since 2003 and particularly the subduction thrust event (7.8) in Fiordland in 2009.
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This website appears to be blocked from your country = The Jackal
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I am wondering what to make of the armed offenders patrolling Chch with their sidearms. Saw it on the news last night and the the story went that they are ‘supporting their brethren by pitching in and helping with patrolling’. Cool but why do they need their sidearms? Can anybody shed some light on this?
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A look at the official information papers regarding the increase in the minimum wage.
http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2011/03/choosing-worse-option.html#links
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(question-time:..we saw some of the worst..and the best..from turei…)
http://whoar.co.nz/2011/new-zealand-parliament-list-of-questions-for-oral-answertuesday-8-march-2011/
party leaders are giving earthquake speeches..
..key’s effort was perfunctory..
…(and english was giving key some bilious looks from the side..what is that all about..?)
( i wonder if he has rung letterman and oprah yet…that key…eh..?..remember?..like he said he would..?..)
..and goff surprised me with perhaps the best speech i’ve ever seen him give…
..it was positively statesman-like…
..and as it went on..it only emphasised just how perfunctory was the effort from key..
..and i was pleased to see goff acknowledging something most others seem not to comment on..
..namely that the high number of the fatalities from the earthquake…who were young…who were foreign…
..and how that grief is international..” (cont..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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Asshole of the Week Award: David Farrar
http://thejackalman.blogspot.com/2011/03/asshole-of-week-award_08.html
Recently Parliament had its second reading of Nationals Foreshore and Seabed bill MK2, which has been highly controversial. Now Independent MP Hone Harawira strongly opposed the bill and the toll of trying to uphold the mandate given to him by his people is one he is undertaking with dignity…
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Dobbie asks “:Cool but why do they need their sidearms? Can anybody shed some light on this?”
Yes – they are very effective for shooting looters.
And even more effective at getting looters to not loot in the first place.
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Photonz – “they are very effective for shooting looters’\
….like autistic guys taking light fittings? It is my understanding that cops on patrol in NZ do not carry firearms. Hence if the armed offenders want to ‘support their brothers’ shouldn’t they be doing it sans sidearms?
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