by frog
The conjecture that the feel good factor of the All Blacks winning the World Cup would translate to significant wins for John Key and MMP doesn’t measure up to a close reading of the research.
Brian Rudman in New Zealand Herald today ran a story that Professors’ Healy, Malhotra and Mo had found a correlation between successes or failure in political contests in direct proportion to a local sports team success or failure. The study covered a forty year period in the United States.
Rudman drew attention to Sandra Grey’s (Campaign for MMP) comment to the Electoral Legislation Select Committee about the timing of the public information process and the Rugby World Cup.
Healy et al said the ‘euphoria’ effect was true especially in low-information settings, where emotions take precedence over actual analysis and knowledge of policies.
Consequently, this theory does not apply to large-scale or national politics, where a greater percentage of the population would be more well-informed about politics.
Sandra is right about the footie and MMP – one is a possible distracter for the other – but Rudman is wrong to conclude from research coming from the USA that political fortune turns on the end of Daniel Carter’s boot.
Published in Justice & Democracy by frog on Wed, July 28th, 2010
Tags: 2011 election, Brian Rudman, Daniel Carter, MMP referendum, Sandra Grey
on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
I think that you’ll be disappointed Frog. It WILL turn on his boot’cos over half the electorate are All Black from ear to ear.
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Yeah, and if the French beat us, or we don’t win the Cup (minimum expectation) then the plan looks shoddy.
Whilst I’ve seen plenty of Governments use this tactic successfully – I also saw Jeff Kennett get booted out of Office in Melbourne for running the cruddiest right-wing Govt. since Muldoon’s Gin blossoms.
Obviously the fans figured they could participate in at least one win.
Why isn’t the Maori team playing in the Cup?
Pita? Hone? anyone?
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Thought the real deal is the the gNats won’t wait to see if the feel good factor is true or not but will go for a July election. After all who wants to campaign through the middle of the World Cup.
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One of the great electoral/Sporting events for me is the Dipton Dasher’s Boxing Match.
Who you got lined up this time Bill?
Say, that David Tua’s lookin’ soft….I reckon you could take him Bill – I’ll buy tickets – go for it Kiwi!
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Watch Bill dodge and weave, dip Bill and dip again!
First he’s in one corner, then another – no-one can pin down quite where that man is!
(Not the face!! Don’t worry about any cuts or blood – Mary’s a Doctor!)
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Mr Guyton makes me laugh!
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Happy to be of some use Mark!
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