Ultra fast broadband – $1.5 billion thrown on the fire

by frog

I’m somewhat surprised that pretty much no one has spoken up about this already, because the mistakes being made should be obvious to anyone with a slightly technical background.  There are four points at which National’s fibre-to-the-home initiative falls over, any one of which is fatal:

1. There is no need for such fast speeds. The speed of our existing internet connections is already far more than adequate – most people’s connections rarely get fully utilised. Take my home – I have a 10 Mb connection, capable of transferring ~1000 kilobytes per second. 1000! Audio-only skype uses around 5 – 12 kilobytes. Skype with video maybe about 50 kilobytes. Youtube uses around 30 kilobytes. Bittorrent uses anything from 5 to 200 kilobytes, depending on the torrent. But hardly anyone uses bittorrent (legally). Web browsing is fine with even a 256k connection. Most computer games use only a couple of dozen kb per second. A couple of years ago I hosted a 12 person skype conference which used ~100 kilobytes per second.

All of these are so far below the maximum speed of my connection that it’s laughable. If there is ever any slowness, it’s because of something maxing out further upstream like a web server with many people using it or a technical problem. A faster connection from the cabinet to my computer won’t help that.

Are there any must-have applications or uses for ultra fast connections that are on the horizon? None that I can think of, and none which won’t blow my measly 10 gig data cap in a day (I’ll come back to the caps).

2. People who really need basic broadband exist. There are plenty of people still stuck on dialup or on the practically-dialup of 256k. You only need to go a few kilometres out of most small towns and access drops away quickly. Rural broadband just doesn’t exist, and most of those rural homes are also productive businesses not just passive consumers in the suburbs. We’d get more return on our investment by shifting the broadband-starved up to broadband than shifting the already broadband-rich into the stratosphere.

3. Uncertain economic benefits. There have been studies done which demonstrate economic benefits from upgrading from dial-up to broadband. Anecdotal evidence from my own life certainly backs that up. With basic broadband, you get: it’s always on so no connection delays, web pages that appear instantly, skype, streaming video, large file downloads, etc Fantastic stuff! But the benefits of upgrading from basic broadband (2Mb) to modern broadband (20Mb+) are far less obvious and unproven. The large gains are in the initial leap out of dial-up hell, any further speed improvements offer incremental gains only. Remember that the big push is to get fibre to the home, not to businesses which already have it and need it to share between many staff. So what if you can download porn lolcats faster, you were doing that when you had ADSL 1 anyway.

4. International bandwidth is the bottleneck. For many years Telstraclear would count national traffic at one tenth the rate of international traffic, for the purposes of computing how much of your cap you had used that month. Local traffic is so cheap that it’s almost not worth measuring – what you’re paying for is to get data from across the sea.

New Zealand is a bit unique among developed countries in that we have data caps (and think it’s normal!). Un-metered broadband is the norm in the USA. The reason that we have data caps is because of geography – we are stuck ages away from the rest of the world, far across the ocean. Only a cable or two connects the country to the rest of the world, and that is what is strangling NZ’s internet. It doesn’t matter how fast the connection from your ISP to your home is, the data cap will remain (small) as long as international bandwidth is expensive.

A different way ahead

If we want to boost the economy by improving internet access, then faster cheaper connections across the Tasman would lift data caps and allow us to make full use of the already fast internet we have. Improvements to rural and semi-rural connections would make more difference than fibre to the (suburban) home. Reducing the cost of cellphone data plans would revolutionise how people use their mobile phones. There are better uses for that $1.5 billion than digging ditches down every street and burying a lot of plastic.

The big picture

We tend to think that more of a good thing is better and that the things which worked well for us in the past will continue to work well in the future. I see ‘ultra fast broadband’ as a small part of that pattern, along with SUVs, iPads (with $30/mo 3G connection!) transmission gully and Airbus A320s. I see blindness about infinite economic growth on a finite planet (with it’s side effects of climate change and peak oil) as part of that too.

Sometimes, more is just not necessary and simply becomes an extra burden to carry.

frog says

Published in Economy, Work, & Welfare by frog on Tue, February 16th, 2010   

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