by frog
Some economists have come up with a map of global risks. The size of the circle is the likelihood of the risk, while the thickness of the connection indicates the degree to which the risk relates to others. The thickness of the border indicates the cost of the risk. The colours are categories.
Most of it makes good sense.
- Oil price spikes relate strongly to Iran, Iraq and the price of food.
- Fiscal crises are tied up with asset price collapses (subprime in 2008, Alt-A in 2010 – 2011, most likely) and the US dollar.
- Climate change is the green cluster on the right, and those are all inter-related and prey heavily on food price and health.
- Underinvestment in infrastructure has weak links to nearly everything
- The Chinese economy is recognised as a big factor
To a great extent it reflects the attitudes of it’s creators (‘retrenchment from globalization’?! oh noooes, ‘burden of regulation’, aaarrrgh!!), but it’s an interesting mind game anyway.
The original version of this map on the World Economic Forum web site is clickable and you can zoom in to each circle and whatnot, which is fun for a while. But in the end I found the broad overview most useful.
Published in Economy, Work, & Welfare | Environment & Resource Management | Health & Wellbeing | Society & Culture by frog on Tue, February 9th, 2010
on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
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Big bro – your comment was unnecessary.
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No point in a rational discussion is there BB – You should stay off the left wing Blogs and we can stay off right wing Bolgs.
Or is the problem, that people that agree with your ideas turn out to be nutters who’s blogs are just boring rants
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That risk map thingy has to be the coolest thing I have seen in ages.
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ROFLMAO,
‘What would Chicago School of Economics say?’, lol.
American 20th Century Capitalism = big fail
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Big de-stabilizing change always comes from left field… when and where your least expect it…. EXPECT IT!
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Katie are you implying by your post that Hayek belonged to the Chicago School of economic thought?
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Interesting tool but when I saw the likelihood of an oil price spike was only 10%, I took the rest of it with a pinch of salt. Surely, it must be close to 100%? If they thought actions would be taken to avoid a spike, I’d be interested to know what those actions might be and what impact they would have on other areas (for example, strict rationing might prevent a spike but how would that affect asset prices, the US$, globalization, infrastructure investment, oil producer reactions, terrorism, etc.).
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There is only one certain thing left out of this map and that is the time scale over which it is assessing the risks. There are clearly some faulty underlying assumptions and/or bits of information where they are reckoning the environmental risks… or they are discounting future events more heavily than they should.
I have found that economists often do that latter bit aggressively and without much understanding of the physical limitations on some of their assumptions.
Well done for all that.
BJ
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BB
There was no con exposed. The science is still there waiting to bite you on the backside if you ignore it. Working group 2 made some assertions not backed by any science about a couple of potential effects. Some scientists got a bit stroppy in their private e-mails. You are aware that Mann was basically cleared of wrongdoing? I may not like him but he did not muck with his data. NIWA did what any good “user pays” organization will do with data that nobody is paying to maintain, and ditched it. Shame about that. A lot of good data is not usable anymore. Without the station records it is not really data at all. All NZ will be represented by the Wellington station and perhaps one or two others where the station information might have been preserved.
We can’t afford “user-pays” science. I know it is a popular model hereabouts but it purely sncks when it comes to actual scientific openness.
Do be more careful about your assumptions.
BJ
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They left off (besides the time factor) the issue of solar storms. Which could (in our current technological dependent state) cause damage exceeding the worst of their economic collapse scenarios.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mystery_monday_031027.html
http://www.space.com/common/media/video/player.php?videoRef=sun_storm
We’d best be prepared for the primitive lifestyle, as it would take the best part of a decade or two to get back the little things we rely on so heavily now, like GPS for navigation…
Do we have enough equipment, in particular wire, on hand to do anything useful?
Only good thing is that it is unlikely that it would damage the Cook-Straight cables. Undersea is pretty well isolated.
Just pointing out one of the “externalities”, and unlike the invasions of little green men, this one has happened before, recently
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solar_flare_031028.html
and we know about it, and we have no way to predict when it will happen so strongly again.
BJ
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hello bj..
..(belated) seasons greetings..
how are they hanging..?
(i’ll bet that ’s the first time that question’s been asked on frogblog..eh..?..
..not a very ‘green’ greeting..eh..?)
have you yet been able to break free from your carnivorous opressors’ chains..
..and go vegan..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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I get a choice of pizza, and salads at Micky D’s but that’s about the extent of it for now. It is less than it was.
Had my own mom to visit (From Virginia) over January and that will probably be the last time I or any of my brood get to see her again. She turns 80 this year.
OTOH, she went Sailboarding on her LAST Birthday. So we may be surprised.
She got to see her grandchildren, and they got to see her. It is probably as good as it gets. No way I could afford to fly the family there… and I pointed out that these days are unusual in the history of the world. Traveling so far to see one’s kids or sibs is likely to not continue to be common practice much longer.
Seasoned greetings to you as well
Pleased to see you are back.
Begging the question of where you’ve been yourself and how you are….
BJ
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i’ve been staying with some friends who have a vegan community..up north..
..so i wd do whoar early in the morning..and then live/talk/laugh/work..
..and not go near the computer until the next morning..
..no tv..no radio..
(and you really don’t miss it/them..eh..?)
(mainly homegrown)vegan feasts..!..every night..!
woo..hoo..!
(i wanna start a vegan community..modelled on that one..
..got any ideas where i can get land/funding..?
it will be a model of how we will have to learn to live..)
..everone has their own ’space’..and a communal house/eating place..
..all chores are shared by all..
..no religous/or other ‘dictates’..just vegan..
i am fit/well..
and have added yoga to my list of addictions..
(and i have cajoled the 15 yr old ‘boy’ to go with me..(6.30 am..schooldays..)
..and he is liking it/feeling/articulating the benifits….
..and for that i am well pleased..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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Well, you could get a job and save. Wild and crazy talk….
How about starting a commercial market garden. Use a kibbutz model for labour and living.
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“got any ideas where i can get land/funding..”
“Use a kibbutz model…”
hmm
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