by frog
Published in THE GAME by frog on Mon, January 11th, 2010
Tags: general debate
General debate, 11 January, 2010
Published: January 11, 2010
Comment via Facebook
79 Comments
Hide comments with a score of
or less
Hide comments with a score of or less
Leave a Reply
Please use 
on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
“Deep freeze Britain was as cold as the South Pole as temperatures plummeted to a staggering minus 21c.
Amid increasing fears of an energy crisis, the country is locked in the biggest chill for nearly 30 years…”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1241060/Severe-weather-warning-Snowstorms-cost-economy-14-5bn-millions-stay-home-did-make-work-face-nightmare-journey.html
“As we all know, this isn’t about truth at all; it’s about plausibly deniable accusations.”
Mike Mann, ‘inventor’ of the Hockey Stick
http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/
Tyranny!! Brain washing!! Charlatans!! Politics!!
Survival of the un-fittest? Is there a greater cosmic test in play?
Like or Dislike:
3 
6 (-3)
even says:
“Deep freeze Britain was as cold as the South Pole as temperatures plummeted to a staggering minus 21c.
Amid increasing fears of an energy crisis, the country is locked in the biggest chill for nearly 30 years…”
……..
as the BBC pointed out this is the weather which is the variability within the climate. It is the climate that is changing.
Like or Dislike:
3 
1 (+2)
JH,
One place having a thirty year record cold weather event says nothing about the climate, just as one place having the hottest day on record says nothing about the climate, as I’m sure you are well aware.
For every record cold weather event you supply, I am quite confident I could find at least one other record hot weather event somewhere else in the world. What matters for the climate is what the average is doing, and also things like how frequent extremes are (but not the individual extremes).
Whilst on this topic of records, Australia has just had the warmest ten years on record. This says a lot more about the regional climate of Australia than a single cold weather event in Britain says about the regional climate of Britain.
Like or Dislike:
1 
1 (0)
Climate and Weather.
We are used to the claims that weather is not climate and that any cold spell is just weather while any hot spell is climate etc.
But I would have thought that weather and climate would be differentiated in two dimensions – both space and time.
In other words a spell of cold weather or a spell of hot weather in a single location is indeed likely to be “just weather”
But a cold spell or a hot spell over a whole hemisphere is surely likely to be climate as much as a spell of thirty years is likely to be climate.
The present cold spell looks to me like climate because it is hitting North America, Europe, the Indian subcontinent and Asia/China ie the whole Northern Hemisphere.
The MWP and the LIA simlarly hit whole areas of the globe for long periods of time.
Isn’t this “whole hemisphere of cold weather” a reasonable indicator that we may be looking at a genuine climatic cooling rather than just a spell of cold weather?
When it snows in Houston, and Bangladesh children are dying from cold and the UK is suffering Antarctic temperatures then it is not unreasonable to suspect that this is a signal of a cooling of the climate rather than just another spell of cold weather.
I am not saying it is or isn’t – I am just suggesting that we need to have regard to both space and time in reaching decisions.
No doubt someone will now call be a liar – but one gets used to that.
?
Like or Dislike:
3 
2 (+1)
In winter the sun is much lower in the sky and it’s warmth doesn’t penetrate the gloom as well as in summer. Pollution in the northern hemisphere is way way worse than in NZ. NZ is so far away from any other land mass we enjoy weather and climate that is unique. Trouble is for us is to convince sceptics here of climate change when all you can see is blue skies. I believe higher tides and storm surges will convince NZers. When it happens. And yes it is going to happen.
Like or Dislike:
2 
2 (0)
Owen McShane – not so, the problem is that the Artic is very warm yet cold flows are coming from this area southward. It’s a weather event but if it is a consequence of climate change it may occur more often.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The current big chill is a result of high pressure over the polar region, which has pushed cold air out of the Arctic towards much of northern Europe, parts of Asia and the US. Winds from the north and north east, rather than the south and south west, have brought freezing temperatures to the UK.
The cause of what one weather service refers to as these “upside down” conditions is an extreme of the Arctic Oscillation (AO).
Essentially, air pressure is measured at various places across the Arctic and at the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere – about 45 degrees north, roughly the latitude of Milan, Montreal or Vladivostok.
The difference between the average readings for the two latitudes gives the state of the Arctic Oscillation index.
A “positive” state is defined as relatively high pressure in mid-latitudes and relatively low pressure over the polar region. “Negative” conditions are the reverse.
And what we have at the moment is an unusually extreme negative state.
Despite the name “Arctic Oscillation”, there’s little discernible pattern to how the pressure difference varies, or what causes it – perhaps “Arctic Random Fluctuation” would be a better name.
Some researchers have linked an apparent increase in the average state of the index from the 1960s to the 1990s to man-made global warming, but you would have to say the jury is definitely still out.
(The AO is linked to another naturally varying phenomenon, by the way – the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the variability in the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores – in fact, some hold that the NAO is just a sub-set of the AO.)
So the question of how long the unusually wintry UK conditions will last is really a question of how long the Arctic Oscillation will remain in its extreme negative state – and a week to 10 days seems to be the favoured timescale.
However, while parts of the world suffer freezing temperatures, the seesaw patterns mean other areas are warmer than usual, including Alaska, northern Canada and the Mediterranean. Met Office figures for the end of 2009 show some places dropped 10C below the average, while others were 10C above
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/
===========================================
Apparently this sort of weather pattern was more common when the Earth was warmer than it is now.
Of some concern is that there could be a sudden jump in global temperatures.
Thaw of permafrost to release huge amounts of methane.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8437703.stm
Like or Dislike:
2 
2 (0)
I too predict a sudden jump in global temperatures.
Britain is between a rock and a hard place. With below zero temperatures more coal is being burnt to meet a huge demand for heating because of the cold weather. Like a dog chasing it’s tail emissions will esculate.
And I see Australia is running out of gas. Will that entail burning more coal? It’s seems no one want’s to change their lifestyles. Only me.
Like or Dislike:
1 
1 (0)
So I presume that if there was an exceptional heat wave stretching across North America, Europe and Asia and China that two would be just “weather” and no indicator of what might be happening to the climate.
Something like this though (warming in the Arctic) is obviously a sign of climate change is it not?
US Weather Bureau Report:
“The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. ”
>
Sorry, I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2, 1922 as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post.
Like or Dislike:
2 
0 (+2)
Owen,
The global warming scientists are predicting is not a short term phenomenon; it is something which is expected to continue for many decades (or longer), and affect the whole globe.
There are plenty of phenomena which can cause changes in temperatures in both the atmosphere and ocean over very large areas but which are of “short” duration. ENSO is one example, where huge areas of ocean and atmosphere can warm for a few months to a year or two, but then return to normal temperatures. Another example is that volcanic eruptions can cause cooling over very large areas for months. Whilst these phenomena affect the climate, it is of an entirely different time scale than the predicted global warming caused by greenhouse gases.
I believe you are well aware of the points I am making, and are deliberately trying to confuse the issue with the examples you put forward.
Like or Dislike:
4 
2 (+2)
Todays good news story
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/3218881/Killer-Marsh-dies-in-prison
Like or Dislike:
4 
6 (-2)
wonder what his childhood was like Bro? – oops – asking the wrong man there…
Like or Dislike:
2 
4 (-2)
Mark
Should I care what his childhood was like?
I wonder how the families of the people he murdered are getting on? – opps- asking the wrong man there…..
Like or Dislike:
6 
13 (-7)
Why should we care about any child or the abuse they may have had to withstand, Bro and Mark?
All that’s important, surely, is that as adults, they pay their taxes!
Like or Dislike:
1 
3 (-2)
It’s like puppies that are beaten, tortured and brutalised. We can’t blame the abuser, when the animal gets older and vicious. The animal must be punished further.
Like or Dislike:
3 
3 (0)
Fly
Your last comment shows that you know nothing about rehabilitating dogs or puppies that have been abused.
I saddens me that once again you show more concern for a murderer than his victims.
Like or Dislike:
4 
10 (-6)
On a related note, then:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/3218952/Learning-difficult-for-most-offenders
That’s one reason childhood is relevant. Hardly a new discovery, but who doesn’t like fresh data. Not a mitigating factor at all, but a significant one, surely.
Like or Dislike:
1 
1 (0)
Bro
Your last comment shows that you know nothing about rehabilitating adults or children that have been abused and become criminal as a result.
I saddens me that once again you show no concern for a criminal whose behaviour may be the result of childhood abuse.
Tell me, Bro, what you think about rehabilitating criminals.
Like or Dislike:
2 
4 (-2)
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Like or Dislike:
2 
17 (-15)
If these large scale warmings and coolings are to be ignored why did so many AGW promoters argue that the Medieval Warm Period never happened and nor did the Little Ice Age.
If they were of no consequence what was the problem.
And what test do you propose that would tell us that we have entered another LIA and that global warming is no longer the “current crisis”.
These are legitimate questions being asked all around the world and unless you are prepared to address them rather than accusing people who raise them as “trying to confuse the issue” or “lying” or being “deniers” you will lose all credibility.
The models have not forecast any of this current cold spell and also no one has an explanation – as yet. There is no obvious candidate such as another Pinotabo.
This is reasonable evidence that the models are weak and are by no means of sufficient standing to justify the imposition of massive costs on our economies and massive interventions into our personal lives.
Like or Dislike:
3 
2 (+1)
Bro – firstly, I’d like to express my sincere sympathy to all victims of crime, including those poor children who have been brutalised to the extent that they become chained to a criminal lifestyle.
Do you ever wonder why so many criminals, especially those who are violent, have back grounds that were brutal? Pure chance, you think? They should simply choose to be law-abiding, like everyone else? You don’t have any pause at all to wonder why so many spring from those conditions? Curious and faintly disturbing that you have so little sympathy and empathy for abused children when you pretend to have it for animals.
You’ve not answered my question about your views on the value of rehabilitation for criminals, Bro.
Like or Dislike:
4 
3 (+1)
I have just been looking at the raw data from the other measuring stations in New Zealand such as Taumarunui and Thames.
Thames shows no discernible trend since the forties –which were a low temp decade – and a possible slight cooling over the last decade. Overthe whole period – no trend outside the noise.
Taumarunui, a small inland town with no heat island effect shows a slight downward trend over the same period but still within the margin of error.
Similarly there has been no acceleration of sea level rising in the southern oceans during the same period and indeed in the last few decades there has been no sea level rising in places like Vanuatu and Tuvalu.
Where is your evidence for this long term trend?
Like or Dislike:
2 
0 (+2)
Btw Bro – is it standard practice, when rehabilitating traumatised puppies and dogs, to lock them in a cell with other traumatised dogs and wait for years for them to be cured? That is the process you favour for humans, isn’t it Bro?
Like or Dislike:
3 
4 (-1)
Fly
“Bro – firstly, I’d like to express my sincere sympathy to all victims of crime, including those poor children who have been brutalised to the extent that they become chained to a criminal lifestyle.”
Yep, proof that you care more about scum than victims.
“Do you ever wonder why so many criminals, especially those who are violent, have back grounds that were brutal? Pure chance, you think? They should simply choose to be law-abiding, like everyone else? You don’t have any pause at all to wonder why so many spring from those conditions?”
Nope, I never wonder, I know why they do it Fly.
“when you pretend to have it for animals.”
Pathetic attempt at a wind up Fly, unlike you I walk the walk, unlike you I do something about it on a daily basis, right now I have three abused dogs with me who are coming along nicely thanks, they assimilate well into our pack of three dogs and within two weeks should be ready to go to new homes.
“You’ve not answered my question about your views on the value of rehabilitation for criminals, Bro”
Given that you almost never answer my questions in an adult way I find your demand hilarious, however, I do not believe it is my job to rehabilitate criminal scum, lock the vermin up and forget about them, they very worst examples (Burton, Bell, Marsh, Bain etc) should be executed.
“Btw Bro – is it standard practice, when rehabilitating traumatised puppies and dogs, to lock them in a cell with other traumatised dogs and wait for years for them to be cured? That is the process you favour for humans, isn’t it Bro?”
Again you show that your ‘concern’ for animals is false, given the choice (the same choice humans have) and the right surroundings dogs will never choose to fight or be aggressive.
Like or Dislike:
5 
5 (0)
Bro – I hadn’t realised you were a reknowned criminologist, with a deep understanding of all reasons for crime!
“I know why they do it”
Will you share your findings of years and years your study at the highest levels, with us Bro?
Why do they do it?
You mention that, given the ‘right conditions’, dogs will not choose to fight.
Do you regard prison as ‘the right conditions’ for humans to learn appropriate behaviour?
Like or Dislike:
3 
5 (-2)
Fly
Prison should not be a place to learn anything, criminal scum should be locked up for as long as possible to keep the rest of us safe.
I note you refuse to admit that humans make the choice to commit crime, unlike all other animals we know the difference between right and wrong.
Are you suggesting that we should let criminal scum out of prison because it is not a very nice place?
What happens when they rape, murder, rob or steal again? (because they will) do you hold your hand up and say “opps, sorry about that”
Like or Dislike:
4 
9 (-5)
Bro – choice is everything.
Are children capable of choice?
Like or Dislike:
3 
5 (-2)
Fly
Yes.
Interesting that you feel kids are not capable of making the right choice, this seems at odds with the Green’s desire to see kids have the vote don’t you think?
Like or Dislike:
3 
9 (-6)
During the Biosphere2 experiment in the 1990′s in Arizona, it was discovered that increased CO2 levels caused the proliferation of robust pest insects and the destruction of delicate pollinators.
Oh joy!
Like or Dislike:
1 
4 (-3)
Children should have had a say over the smacking issue then, shouldn’t they Bro.
Bet they’d support Sue Bradford position.
“No” to smacking.
Would you respect their voice Bro?
Like or Dislike:
3 
5 (-2)
So why do greenhouse operators increase the concentration of carbon dioxide three fold so as to increase productivity, reduce water use, and get healthier produce?
They do this every day, every year – so what was different in the biosphere?
Like or Dislike:
3 
0 (+3)
Fly
Make up your mind!
You have told me that kids cannot decide for themselves, now you tell me that they can.
Is this another example of Green party hypocrisy?
Like or Dislike:
5 
9 (-4)
Nope. It’s a simple question Bro.
Here it is again, in bold.
“Children should have had a say over the smacking issue then, shouldn’t they Bro.
Bet they’d support Sue Bradford position.
“No” to smacking.
Would you respect their voice Bro?
Take a deep breath and answer it Bro, or face being derided for your slipperyness.
Like or Dislike:
3 
5 (-2)
This summary of BIosphere opens by pointing out that “hundreds of things went wrong”. Later it says:
“But comfort was short-lived, and the experiment ended early in failure: atmospheric oxygen concentration had dropped to 14 percent (a level typical of elevations of 17,500 feet); carbon dioxide spiked erratically; nitrous-oxide concentrations rose to levels that can impair brain function; nineteen of twenty-five vertebrate species went extinct; all pollinators went extinct, thereby dooming to eventual extinction most of the plant species; aggressive vines and algal mats overgrew other vegetation and polluted the water; crazy ants, cockroaches, and katydids ran rampant. Not even heroic efforts on the part of the system’s desperate inhabitants could suffice to make the system viable.”
Greenfly you have chosen to blame these problems on carbon dioxide alone. How come you did not notice the drop in oxygen or the nitrous oxide levels?
Like or Dislike:
1 
0 (+1)
Traditionally, the purposes of imprisonment were seen as fourfold:
1. While imprisoned, a convict would not be able to commit other crimes.
2. The experience of imprisonment would be a disincentive for the convict to reoffend once released.
3. The example of the imprisonment would be a disincentive for other individuals to commit crimes.
4. The imprisonment would satisfy the desire of victims and of society for retribution.
However, it turns out that imprisonment does a poor job of disincentivising crime: recidivism rates are very high, and increasing imprisonment rates and terms appears to, at best, do nothing to reduce crime.
That leaves societies with a choice between more and longer imprisonment, in pursuit of objectives 1 and 4 (the US model) or trying to do something with people who have committed crimes that will be effective in reducing their likelihood of reoffending.
Big Bro prefers the former. Greens typically prefer to maximise our attempts at rehabilitation, effective Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment, effective mental health and intellectual disability services, numeracy, literacy and other skills training etc. This is about maximising the opportunity for rehabilitation. Currently NZ is worse than half-hearted at this. These services are only available for a small fraction of those who need them, and often don’t even become available until late in a prisoner’s sentence, by which time the likelihood of success has been minimised.
Greens go further, of course, and say that restorative justice is possible and should be explored. Retribution or revenge never heals the original wound. Restorative justice requires great bravery on the parts of both offenders and victims, but offers for both the opportunity of a genuine way forward. It offers victims the possibility of some genuine healing and by requiring offenders to share in the pain their offending has caused, provides a genuine disincentive for further offending.
Like or Dislike:
5 
4 (+1)
Owen – the Biosphere was sealed and had humans living in there – much like the planet
Glasshouses use chemical controls to manage the problems I described. I’m hoping that significantly higher CO2 levels in our atmosphere will not create similar issues. I’d not like to see another threat to our pollinators (endocrine disrupting chemical, colony collapse etc is quite enough for now), nor would I like to see an increase in pest insects (the mosquito issue is already beginning to humm in the consciousness of the general population).
Like or Dislike:
3 
3 (0)
Fly
There is nothing slippery about it, you of all people should know what being slippery is all about.
Have you made 2010 the year you are going to debate issues or will you continue to avoid the issues when you are cornered?
Either kids can decide what is right or wrong or that cannot, which one is it Fly?
Like or Dislike:
3 
6 (-3)
No answer. Slippery as a greased pig!
Try again. The derision only gets worse.
Like or Dislike:
3 
5 (-2)
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Like or Dislike:
3 
18 (-15)
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Like or Dislike:
4 
15 (-11)
Capital punishment, Bro?
For those who abuse pigs?
Roger and Out.
Like or Dislike:
2 
5 (-3)
Kevin
Can you please tell where restorative justice is practised?
Like or Dislike:
5 
12 (-7)
Still avoiding the question Fly, I really have you on the ropes this morning.
Don’t get angry, just take a deep breath and answer the question.
You will feel good when you have done so Fly, it’s what us adults do all the time.
Like or Dislike:
5 
13 (-8)
I don’t know Bro. If a child has been severly traumatised, I think their judgement would be seriously compromised and I’d take that trauma into account when judging their actions and the decisions they make.
You say they can.
Your turn.
Would you respect their voice on the smacking issue, Bro?
Like or Dislike:
3 
6 (-3)
Not good enough Fly, you are desperately trying to slip out of answering this one.
Either they can decide for themselves or not Fly, if they cannot then it makes no sense to let them have the vote, if they can then it must follow that they all know the difference between right and wrong.
Like or Dislike:
4 
9 (-5)
Black and white, that world of yours Bro.
Okay – I concede. I can’t answer your question.
Please answer mine.
I have to go now, but will be back this afternoon.
Looking foward to your honest answer.
Like or Dislike:
4 
6 (-2)
Of course you can answer it Fly, all you have to do is admit that you are wrong about giving kids the vote or wrong about kids not being able to decide right from wrong.
It really is not that hard.
Like or Dislike:
4 
12 (-8)
imitation may be the sincerest form of flattery – because We Create Them Bro – that’s Right – you too – and you don’t even know it.
Where is the celebration in Three Dead People?
Like or Dislike:
2 
3 (-1)
Mark
What the hell are you on about?
Like or Dislike:
2 
5 (-3)
BB – restorative justice isn’t “forced” on victims of crime, and nobody tells them how to feel. The process is about what can be done by the offender to put right the harm that has been done to victims. That harm is defined by the victims themselves. Those victims I know who have been through the process have found it hard, not always successful but generally better than the alternative. Those offenders I know who have been through the process have mostly found it much harder than the alternative, as for it to work they must face up to the harm they have caused and connect with their victims at a very exposing human level.
With regard to your big question, for me it has to be twinned with the question: “what are you going to do to rehabilitate prisoners and prevent reoffending?”.
You see your approach (people know the difference between right and wrong, therefore punish crime as hard as you can and don’t bother with rehab, no second chances) has a logical conclusion of natural life imprisonment for any offence. After all the person made their choice when they chose wrong from right. And if you give second chances by releasing after a first long sentence, then the evicence is that reoffending is very likely, so society will be best off if they’re just kept inside.
On the other hand (and I’m assuming you and I have both done all we can to prevent that first crime in the first place) my approach is to try to figure out what has made the person offend, and how those circumstances or the person’s response to them might be changed to prevent a next offence. Pretty much everything I would do is geared to that intention, and to reconnect the offender into the social fabric.
So the person released from prison under your regime (because you haven’t yet reached the logical conclusion of your approach) is more likely to re-offend, and no doubt your approach would then be an even longer sentence (did you know there are more than 300 people in the US serving life imprisonment for shoplifting under the 3 strikes policy? Actually that number is probably out of date by now) or execution, or something like that.
Under my approach the focus (on my smaller group of recidivists) would be to continue to focus on remedying causes. I guess there is a point where all rehabilitative measures possible have been tried with a repeat offender, and in a situation of an unavoidable and serious risk to others I would favour continued imprisonment. But this is so far removed from real life, where we use a tiny fraction of the prevention, restoration and rehabilitation measures possible – rather than all of them – that the question is essentially hypothetical.
Like or Dislike:
2 
3 (-1)
Owen
What appears to be happening is arctic warming, greenland warming, habitable areas of the planet cooling in a large deviation from the norm by the jet-stream.
I would not be surprised to find increased problems for us as a result of changes to climate, but as with any weather event like this, I have no way to hang it on warming, cooling or curling of the climate. Climate takes time AND space and is not clearly related to widespread-shortlived events.
Just saying. This isn’t part of anything in particular… yet. The weather was IIRC very “benign” (not so variable) for some decades, and we are due for more “weather” just based on reversion to the statistical norm for such variability. That’s my opinion. Subject to new information as always.
respectfully
BJ
Like or Dislike:
0 
1 (-1)
Kevin
So how many rapes, robberies or assaults would a criminal have to commit before you decided that he was not fit to be a member of our society?
As for the three strikes rule, I note that you highlight the 300 odd who are locked up for shoplifting, of course you deliberately refuse to tell us what their first two crimes might have been.
I am all for giving people one chance (apart from those who commit violent crime) but one chance is all they should get, any more than that and they can rot for all I care.
Like so many Greens you seem determined to make excuses for criminals, these people choose to continue to commit crime Kevin, nobody forces them to break the law, you are telling me that they have no control over themselves, this is clearly illogical.
Like or Dislike:
4 
11 (-7)
Should have said “RECENT norms”
Like or Dislike:
0 
2 (-2)
Kevin
Can you clear up one thing for me, would restorative justice be an option to our current system or the only system.
Like or Dislike:
2 
6 (-4)
you are telling me that they have no control over themselves, this is clearly illogical
Applying logic to human behaviour is an occupation fraught with peril BB.
I can accept that if they were sane by my standards, they would have control over themselves. However, that is not a bar they are likely to be able to jump.
That doesn’t argue either side of what we should do with/for them, but you ARE making a mistake in applying that standard as you do. They may well not have any real choices left once they reach the penal system. One would have to teach them an entirely different and new way of living and thinking, and we are quite certainly NOT doing that by simply locking them up.
Which does leave the question of what to do with them. On which point I reserve my opinion as it is not an argument I care for and I have little time to spare for the next week or so.
Good luck to all this year.
BJ
Like or Dislike:
0 
2 (-2)
While I do support a form of restorative justice, BB would appear to have the right of it in relation to this particular killer.
In the first instance there is some room for debate as to if he simply lost control or if he did so for the joy of inflicting pain, but in the second instance he appears to have killed deliberately and expressly for the joy of killing; there is no rehabilitating that. There should be no chance of him getting out of prison and he should be confined to a 1x2x2 concrete cell with no windows. It could do him psychological damage but that matters not given he will never be let out and this is one of the few cases where the death penalty is justified.
It does not matter what happened in his childhood, that should not be a mitigating factor in sentencing and nor should intellect; it remains the truth that he made the choice to do such and is likely to make that choice many times over. His childhood matters only for the purposes of rehabilitation.
Like or Dislike:
2 
1 (+1)
Denial is not a river in Egypt Bro – keep learning!
Like or Dislike:
2 
2 (0)
BB – you are clearly pretty angry about this issue, and I hesitate before responding to your questions and arguments, because I have no wish to see you angrier still. My interest is in participating in a dialogue and appraising others’ views with as open a mind as I can. Angry doesn’t help.
Nonetheless, here we go:
Restorative justice is already offered in a limited way in some courts (e.g. the youth court) and in a number of overseas jurisdictions. I can’t see any reason why it shouldn’t be an alternative offered for all offending. As it requires victims to agree to the process it can’t be a replacement for the Court system, but is rather an augmentation of it. I think what happens now is that a report on any restorative justice process that has been used is taken into account by the Court in passing sentence.
I don’t think it is possible, consistent with a rehabilitative focus, to determine a specific number of crimes beyond which preventive detention should be used. Rather I advocate doing all that is possible to prevent further offending (by understanding and modifying what is driving the offending) and then making decisions based on risk assessment.
I don’t know what the first two offences were for those now indefinitely imprisoned after a shoplifting conviction under the three strikes rule. In a way that’s kind of the point: it doesn’t matter what they were or whether they were related to the third offence. It’s all just right or wrong, isn’t it? (rhetorical question)
More broadly you seem to see life as a series of rational choices, and don’t seem to accept that for some people little or no choice is available. I worked for many years in the area of sexual health. People knew what was safe or unsafe, and yet continued to get infected with HIV i.e. a rational choice model failed to explain the observed behaviour. The “rational” chooser clearly wouldn’t take up or continue smoking cigarettes. So rationality has a place in some of the decisions we make, but not others, and in other cases still people are not aware that effectively they have made a decision – they were just going with the flow, or doing what they know or always have.
In relation to the issue of constrained choice, a model that posits that every person has the same choices available to them also fails to explain what we actually observe in outcomes – unless we were to adopt the nonsensical view that every individual is entirely responsible for her or his own life circumstances (and even this thought experiment quickly fails if you run it through a few generations). You get a much better fit for the outcomes we observe if we hypothesise that the choices available, and actual behaviour, are largely functions of the biological, social, physical and economic pressures applied.
That’s not to say that there is no place for individual choice. It’s important and almost everyone can make some choices to improve their own lives, and those of others. But it is to say that if we are interested in improving the overall outcomes for a society (and Greens are) then we will get a much better return by working to modify those forces than by encouraging individuals to make better decisions.
Like or Dislike:
3 
3 (0)
A man (or woman) needs to work. Work gives a sense of mana. Why don’t prisoners have to work? BB would be happy that the ‘scum’ are made to do work instead of getting a free ride. The gov’t is happy cos they get free labour. And the prisoner gets into the habit of work and may develop a sense of pride of achievement at the end of his day.
Like or Dislike:
1 
2 (-1)
Kevin
There are many things I can get angry about, restorative justice is not one of them, it has no chance of really taking off in NZ therefore I would rather direct my ‘anger’ toward animal abusers and those who use the cause of animal welfare to steal votes every three years (does that sound familiar Kevin?)
“Restorative justice is already offered in a limited way in some courts (e.g. the youth court”
I know all about this, a few years ago I was forced to attend a restorative justice meeting with a low life gang prospect who had caused considerable damage to a business that I was involved in, this piece of human waste sat there the whole time trying to show how ‘staunch and tough’ he was.
At no stage was I allowed to tell him what I thought of him, I was supposed to sit there and listen to his crap and the crap of the raft of social workers and fanau he dragged along, needless to say the meeting did not last long.
“I don’t think it is possible, consistent with a rehabilitative focus, to determine a specific number of crimes beyond which preventive detention should be used. Rather I advocate doing all that is possible to prevent further offending (by understanding and modifying what is driving the offending) and then making decisions based on risk assessment.
Three criminal convictions (that are punishable by a term of imprisonment) should be enough to see anybody locked away for a very long time, once can be a mistake, twice a coincidence but three times is deliberate, if the third time is for shoplifting then tough luck.
“More broadly you seem to see life as a series of rational choices”
Damn right I do, everybody knows the difference between right and wrong, you people seem determined to make excuses for the very worst type of criminal scum.
“then we will get a much better return by working to modify those forces than by encouraging individuals to make better decisions.”
So at what stage do you admit that the last generation of liberal policies have failed?, we have tried the softly softly approach for years now and it has failed miserably, you seem to be suggesting that we modify this approach by being even more lenient with criminal scum.
It is time to try something else, it is time to get really tough with these people, your way has not and will not work.
Like or Dislike:
5 
12 (-7)
Mark
I really would like to debate the issue with you however, it is somewhat difficult when I don’t know what the hell you are on about.
Like or Dislike:
2 
3 (-1)
I’m sorry Bro – the fault is entirely mine.
I used to go through the Minutae of Psychological Profiling in order to help the Families of Victims.
It’s Volunteer work I had to give up – those facts are so sorry.
The last time someone asked me to take on a Case I said -”for $5k maybe.”
I am on about the interrelationships that create such monstrosities – NZ’s culture of abuse is quite stunning!
I don’t know about this case – I already know a thousand others too well.
Congratulations on making it thru the Chamber of Thumbs.
Keep up the good work!
Like or Dislike:
2 
2 (0)
You what????
Sometimes, Bro, I wonder at the clarity of your thinking. In this instance, I don’t wonder at all.
Like or Dislike:
2 
5 (-3)
Oh no! Owen has some anecdotal evidence! And some more from 1922!
So the statistical analysis of huge and vast datasets that shows global warming must all be wrong!!!!
Thank god we’ve got scientists like Owen!
Like or Dislike:
0 
1 (-1)
bro,
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard in a very long time.
Don’t pretend we’re about to lock up every criminal forever. You know we’re not. So talk about the real world.
The aim is to prevent crime. So the aim of prison is to stop criminals from being criminals. So we should try to make our prisons places that turn criminals into non-criminals. Not for *their* sake. For the sake of the rest of us.
Like or Dislike:
3 
3 (0)
Big bro
You seem to think it appropriate that shoplifting be seen as a prison sentence offence and on mention that 300 American shoplifters are in prison for life (on the basis this was their third offence) merely quibble about whether their two earlier sentences might have been more serious. “Given it’s three strike law” – it might have been receiving a stolen pair of shoes, or tagging a wall, or being in possession of a marijuana smoke.
All three are offences where police have discretion over laying charges. And where good lawyers would get people off. So guess who in society goes to prison on their three strikes policy … which means it perpetuates the injustice some have received all their lives.
On three strikes, it’s only natural justice that where this is policy, each of the three sentences must have been for offences for which a prison sentence was due before the three strikes law was enforced.
PS
1. We really need a comparative trial where prisoners with similar backgrounds and convictions receive the tough punitive sentencing some prefer or rehabiliation and a quicker return into society. Then policy could be guided with some idea as to the relative consequences.
2. The appropriate sentence for continued repeat offending is loss of early release on parole, or release limited to completion of the full term in a bracelet home circumstance. A lower level form of preventative detention. Preferably an attempt at rehabilitation should be made first.
Like or Dislike:
3 
2 (+1)
In addition to the other factors already mentioned, a lot of the people being locked up in prisons have had a poor diet, and probably continue to as well. Poor diet has been linked to reduction in IQ, difficulty in concentrating, and behavioural issues.
The lack of reading and communication skills would also tend to drive these people into criminal behaviour because they would be less aware of alternatives and less able to negotiate the hurdles that WINZ and other organisations put up. They are probably not aware of some of the benefits that they would be entitled to, increasing the pressure to find money by whatever means they can.
If prisoners are going to be released back into society, then it is in everyone’s interests to solve some of these basic issues.
Trevor.
Like or Dislike:
2 
2 (0)
Owen,
You asked for information about sea level at Vanuatu and Tuvalu. Here is a recent report which includes data on sea level at these places (and a number of other islands) since the early 1990s.
http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60101/IDO60101.200911.pdf
To date, the sea level trend at Vanuatu is +6.5 mm/year and at Tuvalu is +5.2 mm/year. Indeed all 12 sites reported on show a positive sea level trend since they were opened. Figure 13 is a useful one, it shows that the length of the data records are becoming long enough that short term variations in the sea level don’t affect the longer term trend by much.
Like or Dislike:
1 
1 (0)
samiula
Thanks for the info on the recent report. There is a puzzlement. I have that report and two others and they present conflicting results. None show any increase in the rate of sea level rising, but only the BOM one you refer to presents a long term trend of 5+ mm a year.
I believe there is some dispute about the corrections made because of anamolies in baroametric pressure, water temp and air temp etc. It may take some time to work out.
I shall keep you advised of what I can find.
I must say I am annoyed at the absence of a unit label on the vertical axis of graphs 12 and 13. I assumed they were One mm units but I presume they are 25 mm units from the ocean summary row at the very bottom.
But leaving labels off would have been a “fail” in my fifth form science classes.
Like or Dislike:
1 
0 (+1)
This item “Pachauri: money laundering?” – by Richard of “EUReferendum” should be a matter for concern to all Kiwis if it stacks up under investigation.
“A British government department, DEFRA, has paid taxpayers’ money to a
British University which in turn paid it to the British subsidiary of an
Indian research organisation, which in turn seems to have paid it to a
New Zealand university scientist so that he could work for an
international organisation based in Geneva – the IPCC.”
Go to: http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/
After all, our reputation for being “Clean and Green” implies two meanings to the word “Clean”.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0 (0)
I’ve worked in law enforcement my entire adult life (almost 10 years now) and what we are doing regarding drug prohibition and longer and longer sentences is making things worse, far worse, not better and at the cost of more and more taxpayer money…
One thing BB you need to grasp is in my experience tougher sentences DO NOT deter crime in anyway… It is human nature to think I’m not going to get caught… Do you really think when a drug dealer has a death sentence hanging over his head everyday from; manufacturing drugs (namely P) and other dealers/gangs, that increasing the minimum parole period for class A from 15 years to say 20 years would make a blind bit of difference to his lifestyle..?
Having read though the thread you seem to have no idea how the justice system works in the real world…
Like or Dislike:
2 
0 (+2)
Cleaning the Green?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0 (0)
samiuela
I have figured it out.
Have a look at table 11 in the same report. I have it isolated here for others to examine;
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/climatescience/attachments/folder/317981048/item/1657087123/view
Vincent Gray explains:
Dear Owen
I fell for this and explained the reasons in my paper.
The graphs they put in the summary reports are not actual records at all. They are “trends” which are what you get by drawing a linear regression line from the beginning to that point, in order to be able to take advantage of the instrumental inaccuracies and the influence of the 1988 cyclone at the beginning. When I did my report you had to download each and every island report separately to find the actual measurements. Now they have put them all together (attached table 11) which shows clearly that none of the sealevels is rising.”
For others, it is best to go to the actual report because table 11 is much bigger in the pdf and easier to read.
Table eleven tells the real story but we have diverted from it by tables 12 and 13 which are a trend line from a fixed beginning point. We used to call it cooking the books.
Like or Dislike:
0 
2 (-2)
Just translated Whale Oils binary to English.
He suggests the same person I had guessed from the article.
All I can say is “frack”, “frack”, and “frack”.
I wonder if this post gets censored.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0 (0)
Owen,
There are multiple problems with what Vincent Gray has told you.
1) The trend lines are not anchored at some arbitrary point. They are derived using linear regression. There is no requirement that the line of best fit will go through the point at the beginning of the time series. What will happen in practise is this: If the sea level at year one is low, then the line of best slope will have a larger slope (i.e. trend) for a few years until later data “drag” the slope of the line back to a smaller value. Similarly, if the sea level at year one is high, the line of best fit will have a smaller (or negative) slope until later data “drag” the slope back to a larger value. As the time series gets longer, outlier values have less effect on the slope of the line. This is why Figure 13 in the report is important. It shows that the change in the sea level trend is now rather insensitive to high or low sea level values for individual years. In other words, the 16 or 17 years of data are enough to get reasonably reliable estimates of the sea level trend.
So Gray’s claim that the time series was started at a time when the sea level was lower than usual is not valid; there are now enough data that the effect of low values at the beginning of the time series does not have much effect on the trend.
2) Gray claims that the linear regression line starts in 1988 (which he implies had lower than usual sea level values). This is pure fantasy. The data do not start until 1992-1994 (and 2001 at the FSM site). I don’t have a clue where he gets 1988 from.
3) Not withstanding point (2), Gray claims 1988 was influenced by a cyclone. Presumably he means a cyclone caused low sea levels (otherwise there is another flaw in his argument). There are numerous problems with this claim:
a) Cyclones only affect the sea level in their vicinity, not over the whole South West Pacific.
b) Cyclones only affect the sea level for a few days or week or two at most.
c) Cyclones raise the sea level (the so called storm surge) as a result of the effect of winds and low pressure acting on the ocean surface.
d) Cyclones are not rare events restricted to one or two years. Every year there are several cyclones in the South West Pacific; the 1988-89 season was not particularly unusual.
4) Gray claims Figure 11 shows no increase in sea level. Have a look carefully at the figure. Each horizontal grid line represents 0.1 m of sea level (100 mm). The sea level trend at Tuvalu (for instance) is 5.2 mm/year. Over the gauge’s 16 year life this represents a sea level rise of less than the distance between one horizontal grid line. Its hard to see this rise by looking at the little graph in Figure 11, but if you look carefully I think it looks reasonable. At some sites (such as Tonga), the sea level rise is very easy to see. If you don’t trust the figures, you can request the sea level data from the Bureau of Meteorology’s National Tidal Centre and compute the trends yourself. Their address is on page 14 of the report; as an individual you will only be charged a data handling fee.
So in conclusion, I think you can see the report is not “cooking the books”; the sea level rise measured at the twelve sites is indeed real. Furthermore, the mistakes in Gray’s interpretation of these data raises serious concerns about his credibility.
Finally, in case you were wondering if all the islands are sinking. the SeaFrame gauges have GPS devices installed in them which are designed to detect such motions, and allow the data to be corrected accordingly.
Like or Dislike:
1 
0 (+1)
Samiuela
Grey wrote his paper on the base data they supplied him and I understand this went back to 19888.
“3) Not withstanding point (2), Gray claims 1988 was influenced by a cyclone. Presumably he means a cyclone caused low sea levels (otherwise there is another flaw in his argument). There are numerous problems with this claim:
a) Cyclones only affect the sea level in their vicinity, not over the whole South West Pacific.
b) Cyclones only affect the sea level for a few days or week or two at most.
c) Cyclones raise the sea level (the so called storm surge) as a result of the effect of winds and low pressure acting on the ocean surface.
d) Cyclones are not rare events restricted to one or two years. Every year there are several cyclones in the South West Pacific; the 1988-89 season was not particularly unusual.”
Yes, a rushed typo. He has corrected that to the El Nino
“So in conclusion, I think you can see the report is not “cooking the books”; the sea level rise measured at the twelve sites is indeed real. Furthermore, the mistakes in Gray’s interpretation of these data raises serious concerns about his credibility.”
It’s a matter of how much you trust trend lines with this sort of data.
It is probably better and simpler to cut to the chase and ask “Do you see any indication of acceleration of any rising?
Almost all of the stations are located in the Western Pacific Warm Pool. Main control on absolute sea level is ENSO state, where El Nino lowers sea level as water flows eastward towards South America. La Nina results in sea level rise as the thermocline and warm pool is re-established. Recent rapid “increases” in sea level are due to normal to La Nina conditions over last 17 years.
Global warming will have little effect in this region as most sea level increase is attributed to thermal expansion. All observational and modelling data indicate that this area will experience no increase in ocean temperature above the thermocline (the area of the warm pool is projected to increase, leading to a larger area affected by tropical cyclones). No warming indicates no sea level rise. This is illustrated in IPCC AR4 where the global sea level rise is minimal at the equator (and due to glacial melt) and increases towards temperate latitudes, before decreasing towards the poles.
Apart from a couple of dubious studies (that unfortunately featured in IPCC AR4 and Copenhagen discussion document), all studies indicate that the long-term rate of sea level rise is either static or decreasing. De Lange’s work on Auckland data show the rate is decreasing, but there is underlying step-like behaviour that I associate with the IPO.
Do you see any sign of accelerated sea level rising in any of these tables?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0 (0)
samuiela
ON the other hand Vincent points out that there was a major cyclone in the Pacific in 1998. It is mentioned in every one of the Pacific island Reports and there are many reports of the damage that was done.
See, for example
http://weather.about.com/od/imagegallery/ig/Hurricane-Tracking-Maps/1998-Pacific-Cyclone-Paths.htm
It is the relative impact of cyclones and El Nino events which make “adjustments” such a problem.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0 (0)
Owen,
Personally I can’t see signs of accelerating sea level rise in the BOM data, but I can see clear signs of sea level rise. The BOM report was very cautious and mentioned that decades of sea level data are required to detect long term sea level trends. On the other hand, it also shows that the current data record (about 16 or 17 years at most sites) is looking like it might be sufficient to detect longer term trends (thats the point of Figure 13).
Which 1998 cyclone are you referring to? Those shown in the map you link to are for the Eastern Pacific, not the SWP. When there is a cyclone in the region a large number of countries will be alerted, because the uncertainties in its forecast track mean that they might possibly be affected. This does not mean that every country is affected.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0 (0)
samiuela,
I cannot find in the research references any measurement of the variable called sinking island.
is there research on this? and where?
Because without that variable (measured againts a big land mass like Australia) the sea level readings are completely misleading.
Any studies done on the effect of over population on the islands and the effect on the fresh water table causing sinking of the islands?
For one to claim rising sea levels are solely to blame is to espouse one leg of the equation. That research needs to be read in conjunction with the other parts of the equation.
Add the fact that most of the islands are volcanic in origin, the rise and fall of those islands could be attributed to seismic activity. Just to add another variable into the equation.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0 (0)
Gerrit,
The data presented in the report cited above ( http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60101/IDO60101.200911.pdf ) have been corrected for vertical movement of the tide gauge site. To make the required vertical height measurements, Continuous GPS instruments are installed with the SEAFRAME gauges. You can read about the leveling of the gauges in Hall (2006; http://www.bom.gov.au/pacificsealevel/presentations/briefing_paper_spslcmp_nov_2006.pdf )
It turns out that some sites are subsiding and some are rising. For example, the site at Samoa is subsiding at 1.1 mm/year, while the Cook Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji gauges are rising at 0.3 mm/year (Hall, p. 6).
Read the reports; you’ll see what has been done, what needs to be interpreted carefully and so on. The evidence of sea level rise in the South West Pacific is very strong. If you are interested in the global sea level “picture”, you might be interested in this site: http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html
Like or Dislike:
1 
0 (+1)