Kevin Hague asks John Key to show leadership, however it must be acknowledged that our society has evolved around the use of fossil fuels and the size of our population is directly related to the energy we use. Redistribution of wealth can only go so far but reducing co2 has a long way to go. A low carbon future will (presumably) see more vegetable gardens but you are pro migration? I.e. there’s an element of BS in your policy mix.

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You don’t think the vote is consistent around 5-7% for the far left?

BP,

Oh alas! I have failed!

My cunning rhetorical trick above has failed! I pointed out that I’d been naive to think “the right” was a single political position in NZ by pointing out the NZ First/Grey Power vote is different than the ACT vote. It was supposed to craftily lead you to realise that your characterisation of a single “far left” vote is likewise an oversimplification. Woe for my attempts and subtle and clever argument.

I know the Greens are leftish. But they’re a lot else as well. I’m okay with the leftish-ness, but I support them for the something else. So I think your question is flawed because I think your assumption that “the Green/Values vote” is “the far left vote” is wrong.

But beyond that: the non-mainstream parties will only ever get a small share of the vote, because either they will be too extreme and die or what is “mainstream” will shift to take over their positions. Labour and National’s environmental policies as at 2009 would have been radical extremism in 1974.

I honestly think that the Greens exist largely to shift the political mainstream their way, and that every time their party policies are stolen or co-opted that’s a success.

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Sorites Fallacy

Depends on the context. Lets say we agree to 40% reductions, and China and the US continue as usual.

Lets say you agree to not eat this chocolate, but otherwise completely ignore your low-fat diet. That demonstrates that eating this chocolate is not really going to make a difference is it? And that precise same argument can be applied to every single chocolate in the box, every day.

People in every group of 4 million people on the planet can make the same argument about their group that you are making. And they do.

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Only under MMP did it recover.

OK, but I’d argue the base used to switch in and out of Labour. Now they don’t need to, they simply pull Labour to the left by voting Green.

You don’t think the vote is consistent around 5-7% for the far left?

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more interested in their personal welfare than in the planet’s

Thing is, if people believed it was true, then they would act. Many people do not, and many of those who do think it’s just about turning off lightbulbs and paying 10c for a shopping bag.

we are never going to be “center-right”

Whatever those definitions mean. I see you’re increasingly favouring market based solutions, for starters. Re-read Adam Smith, perhaps?

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Icehawk, they achieved 5.20% in 75

BP,

But that does not make true your claim that “The Greens vote has barely moved since the days of the Values Party”. It moved from 5.2% to 2.4%, then to 0.19%, then to 0.

Only under MMP did it recover.

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BP

Depends on the context. Lets say we agree to 40% reductions, and China and the US continue as usual.

We’ve been around this one a few times now. Haven’t we? I should like to see what the US will propose finally, as 3% isn’t a heckuva good look, and the Chinese haven’t actually provided a target for emissions, just intensity. Well that isn’t going to cut it either. I have heard (among other things) that the negotiators are going to agree to a target temperature but not to specific target emissions at this round. I suspect we’re going to have a lot of to-and-fro over the next year. I also suspect strongly that we (as a planet) will miss the train (as Jeanette describes it). Due in no small part to people who are more interested in their personal welfare than in the planet’s. On both sides of the “left-right” spectrum.

Also… we are never going to be “center-right”. Center-left is all you are going to get. A natural consequence of having the principles we have.

respectfully
BJ

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Sorites Fallacy

Depends on the context. Lets say we agree to 40% reductions, and China and the US continue as usual.

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Yes. How do you intend to pay for welfare, health, and education, given the fact we’re borrowing $250m per week as it is.

See what happens in Greece when you get a credit rating downgrade….

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To reduce total emmissions from cows, reduce the number of cows.
Please send my cut of that $45 million, Mr Key, and have you any other questions?

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“low emission cow products” – cool! What would they be then?

No idea, and it doesn’t much matter to the customer.

It’s all about perception, you see.

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Ironic, really. We seem to have swapped positions.

Indeed.

I think FPP allowed for more “courageous” decisions, because a party could make hard calls early in the electoral cycle. These days, they need to battle with their partners, and everything gets watered down and compromised. Result: a muddling, middle, indecisive grey. Big calls are hard to make in such an environment.

That doesn’t mean to say FPP is a good idea.

Jury is still out for me. I’m not actually concerned about the system itself, I look at the outcomes achieved. I can see why minor party supporters must support MMP, because without it, they cannot exist as a political force.

I don’t think MMP has resulted in decisive government. I can’t see it ever doing so. It requires too much compromise. A party needs to campaign on a clear mandate and be voted on that mandate, and then measured on that mandate, not have that mandate traded away with the likes of Winston Peters after the votes are in.

Politicians sacrifice policy for power.

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Icehawk, they achieved 5.20% in 75. Given MMP makes it possible for a minor party to participate, one could assume that percentage would have been higher had MMP been in place.

Say around 7%?

I’d argue that the Green vote has never managed to shift outside the base. The reason for that is that most people vote safe, a trait both Clark and Key recognise.

One can hardly blame them for playing to that base, as you do yourselves. I think the Green Party do recognise this, as is evidenced by Bradford’s failed leadership bid and the positioning of the party more towards the pragamatic center-right than ideological old left.

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I get now

No, you don’t.

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I was interested, Icehawk, as I am in all of your comments (I wish they were more frequent) and now I know something of the “fallacy of the heap” and hope against hope that BP was sufficiently interested to follow your suggestion.
Cheers

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BP,

“PS: I was one of those suckers who fell for the “trial of MMP” meme way back then, and have not trusted the left ever since.”

Ironic, really. We seem to have swapped positions.

I opposed MMP way back when. I thought it would result in a Grey Power Party and ACT Party (though I didn’t know it would be called ACT) holding a balance of power and running things. As a naive young Icehawk I thought parties fell more into a more neat left-to-right spectrum, and that they would both be “right-wing”. I hadn’t realised that the anti-immigrant social conservatives of the Grey Power Party (which emerged as NZ First) would actually yearn for the good old-fashioned govt-managed economy of the 70s and of course hate ACT’s desire to reduce superannuation payments – far from co-operating as a bloc they turned out to have little in common.

I now support MMP, because I don’t think a FPP system, which inevitably leads to centre-left party and a centre-right party, covers enough ground since there’s a lot more to politics than a simple linear continuum and you need more parties in parliament to better represent many different political views NZers have.

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“That still doesn’t mean I agree that NZ makes any difference to global tempertaure,”

BP,

As someone who used to teach logic I must ask you:
Are you familiar with the logical fallacy known as the Sorites Fallacy?

Why I ask is left as an exercise for the reader.

Icehawk

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“low emission cow products” – cool! What would they be then?
Yet to be revealed, I suppose…

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Blue Peter – I get now… a ‘defensive marketing opportunity’ is otherwise known in soccer speak as ‘an own goal’.

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