Comments on: An update on climate change, from the UN http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/ hopping along the corridors of power Tue, 16 Mar 2010 11:30:27 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Tom Taylor http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-94259 Tom Taylor Mon, 26 Oct 2009 07:14:25 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-94259 Hi All, You have to drill down into "Ecoworld" to find the facts - the headline is an op-ed saying the Right thing about "alarmists". http://www.scienceonline.org/cgi/content/abstract/315/5818/1529 gives a more balanced view, though the review dates from March 2007. It also states the range in the estimates and covers factors that affect the accuracy of measurements and the assumptions made (something you don't get from people banging their particular drums - they just use "facts" that suit their opinions). Hi All,

You have to drill down into “Ecoworld” to find the facts – the headline is an op-ed saying the Right thing about “alarmists”.

http://www.scienceonline.org/cgi/content/abstract/315/5818/1529 gives a more balanced view, though the review dates from March 2007. It also states the range in the estimates and covers factors that affect the accuracy of measurements and the assumptions made (something you don’t get from people banging their particular drums – they just use “facts” that suit their opinions).

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]]> By: Trevor29 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-94009 Trevor29 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 09:31:22 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-94009 But we are standing on a lofty hill top because that is the best place to put our wind turbines. Trevor. But we are standing on a lofty hill top because that is the best place to put our wind turbines.

Trevor.

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]]> By: sofistek http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-94004 sofistek Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:30:17 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-94004 <blockquote cite="Shunda Barunda">So call me what you like but while you are standing on your lofty hill top I will be in the valley planting trees, I am acting regardless of where the truth on this issue lies. </blockquote>I'll call you a denier then, but I'm not standing on a lofty hilltop; I'm just getting very concerned at what world my kids will inhabit. You might be doing something yourself but why? And why advocate that governments wait for certainty before addressing what most climate scientists think is a very serious situation? If there is ever going to be time for action, it is now. There is an abundance of evidence, mostly pointing to very serious problems if we go on as we are, and suggesting that we need to plan for adaptation too, because the climate will worsen whatever we do. The ETS is not going to address the problem and neither are targets on reductions that are woefully inadequate.

So call me what you like but while you are standing on your lofty hill top I will be in the valley planting trees, I am acting regardless of where the truth on this issue lies.

I’ll call you a denier then, but I’m not standing on a lofty hilltop; I’m just getting very concerned at what world my kids will inhabit. You might be doing something yourself but why? And why advocate that governments wait for certainty before addressing what most climate scientists think is a very serious situation? If there is ever going to be time for action, it is now.

There is an abundance of evidence, mostly pointing to very serious problems if we go on as we are, and suggesting that we need to plan for adaptation too, because the climate will worsen whatever we do. The ETS is not going to address the problem and neither are targets on reductions that are woefully inadequate.

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]]> By: bjchip http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93874 bjchip Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:43:08 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93874 Shunda There is NO way to address it without political risk...or financial risk. Neither the politicians nor the financiers have any comprehension of the ACTUAL risk, so both regard it as just another issue to profit from. This is unfortunate, but addressing it remains necessary. If we delay until the effects become undeniable and the population as a whole finds that it is actually interfering with the Footy, it won't matter whether financiers have profited or political hacks have ridden it into power. It will at that point be too late. Simply stated, I accept that there are people who will ride this issue. That does not make the science less accurate or the issue go away. We've dropped a CO2 bomb and the explosion is only just beginning to be felt. People make the mistake of thinking that problems will come on as fast as the CO2 was released. THAT cannot happen... the oceans mitigate the changes... but they also reduce our ability to quickly correct the problem. http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/09/04/urgent/ As for the glaciers.... Tamino had an excellent take on this: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/08/06/graph-jam/ Just saying... :-) respectfully BJ Shunda

There is NO way to address it without political risk…or financial risk. Neither the politicians nor the financiers have any comprehension of the ACTUAL risk, so both regard it as just another issue to profit from.

This is unfortunate, but addressing it remains necessary. If we delay until the effects become undeniable and the population as a whole finds that it is actually interfering with the Footy, it won’t matter whether financiers have profited or political hacks have ridden it into power.

It will at that point be too late.

Simply stated, I accept that there are people who will ride this issue. That does not make the science less accurate or the issue go away. We’ve dropped a CO2 bomb and the explosion is only just beginning to be felt. People make the mistake of thinking that problems will come on as fast as the CO2 was released. THAT cannot happen… the oceans mitigate the changes… but they also reduce our ability to quickly correct the problem.

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/09/04/urgent/

As for the glaciers….

Tamino had an excellent take on this:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/08/06/graph-jam/

Just saying… :-)

respectfully
BJ

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]]> By: greenfly http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93859 greenfly Tue, 20 Oct 2009 22:47:12 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93859 Will the quill put paid to the spade? Will the quill put paid to the spade?

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]]> By: kjuv http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93853 kjuv Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:59:44 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93853 >>wipe them with the stroke of a pen. That Mighty Pen rears its head again :). Yay it's even mightier than the spade! >>wipe them with the stroke of a pen.

That Mighty Pen rears its head again :) . Yay it’s even mightier than the spade!

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]]> By: greenfly http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93851 greenfly Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:46:38 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93851 Shunda - in my opinion...an individual (you or I for example) needs to be involved with 'saving the planet' on a number of levels, tempting as it may be to busy ourselves with the straightfoward task of growing and planting trees. If you've got the smarts to do that (re-tree the land), then you must contribute to the political arm as well. Just because it's more complicated doesn't mean you should abdicate your responsibility. If every good tree-planter kept their head down and didn't fight the broader fight, those who don't see the value in that act (planting), will overwhelm in their field - politics. Tree planters can put in forests, but politicians can wipe them with the stroke of a pen. Shunda – in my opinion…an individual (you or I for example) needs to be involved with ’saving the planet’ on a number of levels, tempting as it may be to busy ourselves with the straightfoward task of growing and planting trees. If you’ve got the smarts to do that (re-tree the land), then you must contribute to the political arm as well. Just because it’s more complicated doesn’t mean you should abdicate your responsibility. If every good tree-planter kept their head down and didn’t fight the broader fight, those who don’t see the value in that act (planting), will overwhelm in their field – politics. Tree planters can put in forests, but politicians can wipe them with the stroke of a pen.

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]]> By: Valis http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93847 Valis Tue, 20 Oct 2009 20:23:58 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93847 I really can't imagine what I have said to make you think I have so much faith in human nature. My expectations of Copenhagen are as pessimistic as anyone's I think. The point is that you are actively arguing that governments <i>shouldn't</i> be part of the solution despite the need for urgent action, and worse that they and the scientists are involved in conspiracy to defraud us at best anyway. You've argued neither convincingly and when that's pointed out, you shift to even mushier arguments, all it seems in an attempt to deny the magnitude of the problem so you don't have to think about another solution. I really can’t imagine what I have said to make you think I have so much faith in human nature. My expectations of Copenhagen are as pessimistic as anyone’s I think. The point is that you are actively arguing that governments shouldn’t be part of the solution despite the need for urgent action, and worse that they and the scientists are involved in conspiracy to defraud us at best anyway. You’ve argued neither convincingly and when that’s pointed out, you shift to even mushier arguments, all it seems in an attempt to deny the magnitude of the problem so you don’t have to think about another solution.

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]]> By: Gerrit http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93842 Gerrit Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:26:37 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93842 Tom Taylor you may want to start here http://www.ecoworld.com/climate/the-real-facts-on-increasing-antarctic-ice.html or google "antartic ice growth 2009" The problem is the growth of ice in the eastern antartic and the melting of the WAIS. All that weight tranfer COULD have an devastating effect on the earth axis. Not to alarm you or anything, but something else to consider Tom Taylor

you may want to start here

http://www.ecoworld.com/climate/the-real-facts-on-increasing-antarctic -ice.html

or google “antartic ice growth 2009″

The problem is the growth of ice in the eastern antartic and the melting of the WAIS.

All that weight tranfer COULD have an devastating effect on the earth axis.

Not to alarm you or anything, but something else to consider

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]]> By: Shunda barunda http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93840 Shunda barunda Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:17:46 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93840 "Governments must be part of the solution. That may suck, but we’re going down unless they act" Valis I just think you are putting far too much faith in human nature. I can accept that in regarding the environment the likes of yourself and others in the green movement really do want to help, but you will be out numbered, you will not be able to steer the political forces that develop. The dual agendas that could come out of Copenhagen will be just too irresistible to resist and they are being given them on a platter. I guess the more extreme left wing environmentalists will be happy with this but I am sure people that have a more genuine concern for the environment will eventually deeply regret the way this could ultimately develop. I just think the chances of the environment benefiting out of this process will be slim. There must be another way to address the environmental issues we have with out the political risk. “Governments must be part of the solution. That may suck, but we’re going down unless they act”

Valis I just think you are putting far too much faith in human nature.
I can accept that in regarding the environment the likes of yourself and others in the green movement really do want to help, but you will be out numbered, you will not be able to steer the political forces that develop.
The dual agendas that could come out of Copenhagen will be just too irresistible to resist and they are being given them on a platter.
I guess the more extreme left wing environmentalists will be happy with this but I am sure people that have a more genuine concern for the environment will eventually deeply regret the way this could ultimately develop.
I just think the chances of the environment benefiting out of this process will be slim.
There must be another way to address the environmental issues we have with out the political risk.

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]]> By: Tom Taylor http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93839 Tom Taylor Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:38:08 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93839 Hi Shunda, Re glaciers - I gave you a link to the global picture which I suggest you read. As regards NZ - the link is a NIWA media release at http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/news/all/2008-09-15. This is the latest on their website so it's a year out of date. Would you give us links to research showing that ice volumes in the Antarctic are increasing as papers I've read show the opposite. Hi Shunda,

Re glaciers – I gave you a link to the global picture which I suggest you read. As regards NZ – the link is a NIWA media release at http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/news/all/2008-09-15. This is the latest on their website so it’s a year out of date.

Would you give us links to research showing that ice volumes in the Antarctic are increasing as papers I’ve read show the opposite.

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]]> By: Valis http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93838 Valis Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:33:57 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93838 But you are putting all your eggs in one basket, the one that's labeled "This problem can be solved entirely by individual action alone". What you're doing is great, but it is not enough and does not absolve you from responsibility, as an environmentalist, to think about the global context and the time frame within which we have to succeed. Governments must be part of the solution. That may suck, but we're going down unless they act. But you are putting all your eggs in one basket, the one that’s labeled “This problem can be solved entirely by individual action alone”. What you’re doing is great, but it is not enough and does not absolve you from responsibility, as an environmentalist, to think about the global context and the time frame within which we have to succeed. Governments must be part of the solution. That may suck, but we’re going down unless they act.

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]]> By: Shunda barunda http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93834 Shunda barunda Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:31:21 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93834 Speak for yourself sofistek, while certain elements of the green movement are running around promoting ideas that have more to do with Karl Marx than the environment, I have been growing and planting trees. For all the pontificating and scaremongering of the AGW crowd, what have they achieved for the environment? absolutely squat. The only thing so far is a negative effect as far as getting rid of carbon goes ie the forestry industry ground to a halt. So call me what you like but while you are standing on your lofty hill top I will be in the valley planting trees, I am acting regardless of where the truth on this issue lies. Speak for yourself sofistek, while certain elements of the green movement are running around promoting ideas that have more to do with Karl Marx than the environment, I have been growing and planting trees.
For all the pontificating and scaremongering of the AGW crowd, what have they achieved for the environment? absolutely squat.
The only thing so far is a negative effect as far as getting rid of carbon goes ie the forestry industry ground to a halt.
So call me what you like but while you are standing on your lofty hill top I will be in the valley planting trees, I am acting regardless of where the truth on this issue lies.

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]]> By: wat dabney http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93833 wat dabney Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:26:42 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93833 samiuela, "Observations show that the sea level is rising" The best piece about sea level I've seen recently is this: http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2009/07/22/sea-level-rise-an-update-shows-a-slowdown It seems like pretty comprehensive hard evidence that there is nothing to be concerned about. samiuela,

“Observations show that the sea level is rising”

The best piece about sea level I’ve seen recently is this:

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2009/07/22/sea-level-rise- an-update-shows-a-slowdown

It seems like pretty comprehensive hard evidence that there is nothing to be concerned about.

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]]> By: sofistek http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93824 sofistek Tue, 20 Oct 2009 07:17:29 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93824 The science keeps piling up in favour of doing something significant, and soon, to have any hope of leaving a half habitable planet to our kids and still we get the denialists who clutch at the odd uncertainty to support doing nothing (equivalent to what National is planning). It's just incredible how many people are quite prepared to let our only habitat crumble before our eyes, in the hope that someone got it wrong. Aside from this compendium, the Hadley Centre issued <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17864-no-rainforest-no-monsoon-get-ready-for-a-warmer-world.html" rel="nofollow">another report</a>, which is also gloomy reading. The science keeps piling up in favour of doing something significant, and soon, to have any hope of leaving a half habitable planet to our kids and still we get the denialists who clutch at the odd uncertainty to support doing nothing (equivalent to what National is planning). It’s just incredible how many people are quite prepared to let our only habitat crumble before our eyes, in the hope that someone got it wrong.

Aside from this compendium, the Hadley Centre issued another report, which is also gloomy reading.

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]]> By: samiuela http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93822 samiuela Tue, 20 Oct 2009 06:42:29 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93822 Shunda, You are clutching at straws. Observations show that the sea level is rising, so if precipitation over Antarctica is increasing, it still isn't enough to counter all the other mechanisms currently at work which lead to a rising sea level. All you have done is describe one mechanism which reduces sea level, but you have failed to quantify how important it is compared to all other mechanisms that affect sea level. Shunda,

You are clutching at straws. Observations show that the sea level is rising, so if precipitation over Antarctica is increasing, it still isn’t enough to counter all the other mechanisms currently at work which lead to a rising sea level.

All you have done is describe one mechanism which reduces sea level, but you have failed to quantify how important it is compared to all other mechanisms that affect sea level.

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]]> By: Shunda barunda http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93820 Shunda barunda Tue, 20 Oct 2009 06:29:43 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93820 Tom are you including east coast glaciers? if so your argument does nothing to dispel what I have said. And while western Antarctica has lost ice, satellite measurements show the interior has GAINED ice overall due to more precipitation from the same ocean currents that warmed the peninsula. I am not clutching at straws Valis, more like not putting all my eggs in one basket. Cause unlike you guys I want to know what is really happening to our planet, I am not interested in politically correct environmentalism. Tom are you including east coast glaciers? if so your argument does nothing to dispel what I have said. And while western Antarctica has lost ice, satellite measurements show the interior has GAINED ice overall due to more precipitation from the same ocean currents that warmed the peninsula.
I am not clutching at straws Valis, more like not putting all my eggs in one basket. Cause unlike you guys I want to know what is really happening to our planet, I am not interested in politically correct environmentalism.

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]]> By: greenfly http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93814 greenfly Tue, 20 Oct 2009 05:11:54 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93814 Shunda! Hold tight to those straws! Shunda! Hold tight to those straws!

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]]> By: Tom Taylor http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93813 Tom Taylor Tue, 20 Oct 2009 05:09:24 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93813 Hi Shunda, According to the latest report on NIWA's website the total volume of the glaciers was 44.9 cubic km in 2007/8 which is the lowest since their records started in 1972. While noisy the overall trend in volume is down. Globally it's the same (see http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/pdfs/5.pdf ). Also, overall from satellite measurements the Antarctic is losing ice mass and the glaciers both there and in Greenland are showing thinning which is evident for 100+km inland from the ice margin (laser altimetry from ICESat which has almost pole to pole coverage). Hi Shunda,

According to the latest report on NIWA’s website the total volume of the glaciers was 44.9 cubic km in 2007/8 which is the lowest since their records started in 1972. While noisy the overall trend in volume is down. Globally it’s the same (see http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/pdfs/5.pdf ).

Also, overall from satellite measurements the Antarctic is losing ice mass and the glaciers both there and in Greenland are showing thinning which is evident for 100+km inland from the ice margin (laser altimetry from ICESat which has almost pole to pole coverage).

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]]> By: Valis http://blog.greens.org.nz/2009/10/19/an-update-on-climate-change-from-the-un/#comment-93810 Valis Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:52:38 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/?p=7060#comment-93810 You are grabbing at straws, Shunda. You offer two arguments here. First that a <i>large degree</i> of uncertainty (as no one is arguing it is zero) is somehow illustrated by your example. I don't know if that is true, but would observer that as Antarctica is the driest continent, it isn't obvious that 2.4 degrees will change the level of precipitation at all, let alone enough to have an ameliorating effect on sea level rise. Second, and worse, that Bush's scaremongering re terrorism is at all comparable to a scientific community coming to the view that warming is man made and likely to be catastrophic. This is absurd, particularly given that only the most tame and un-alarming assessments are allowed out of a committee of over a hundred nations, which included the Bush administration and every other climate denying nation (if not this latest report, then the previous several upon which it builds). Far from being overly alarmist, IPCC reports must be seen almost certainly underestimating the concern the scientists have based on the evidence. You have never made a credible argument that AGW is just a conspiracy being perpetrated by the world's scientists. You are grabbing at straws, Shunda. You offer two arguments here. First that a large degree of uncertainty (as no one is arguing it is zero) is somehow illustrated by your example. I don’t know if that is true, but would observer that as Antarctica is the driest continent, it isn’t obvious that 2.4 degrees will change the level of precipitation at all, let alone enough to have an ameliorating effect on sea level rise.

Second, and worse, that Bush’s scaremongering re terrorism is at all comparable to a scientific community coming to the view that warming is man made and likely to be catastrophic. This is absurd, particularly given that only the most tame and un-alarming assessments are allowed out of a committee of over a hundred nations, which included the Bush administration and every other climate denying nation (if not this latest report, then the previous several upon which it builds). Far from being overly alarmist, IPCC reports must be seen almost certainly underestimating the concern the scientists have based on the evidence.

You have never made a credible argument that AGW is just a conspiracy being perpetrated by the world’s scientists.

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