Nelson goes Green

Spotted in Nelson this morning:

Polar bear in Nelson

Russel was also in Nelson this morning. Is that him under all that fur, taking a break from being the face of the campaign?  It looks like his satchel to the left of the photo, but I suspect he’s more likely in the caravan having a cuppa tea.

Meanwhile the Greens are polling over 10 percent in Nelson according to the Nelson Mail, much to Labour Party candidate Maryan Street’s chagrin:

nelson mail poll

She expressed concern that the Green Party was “cannibalising” some of Labour’s party support, saying that while she wanted to see the Greens get over the 5 percent threshold, too much support for them risked Labour not getting enough votes to form a government.

That’s a false explanation of MMP from Street.  Voters know the only way to get a strong Green voice in government (or more Green MPs into Parliament) is to party vote Green. If Labour are prepared to take on enough of Green policies then we will consider helping them form a government. We won’t form a government with National

On current polling Labour won’t be able to govern without us.  That means voters have the choice of Labour-NZ First or Labour-Greens.  Given Labour’s current relationship with NZ First a party vote for Labour is more likely to lead to the first option and party vote for the Greens is the best way to get the second option. No wonder then the Green vote is growing. 

Green candidate Diana Mellor was “absolutely delighted” with her party’s showing and was optimistic of it finishing well above the 7.7 percent it won in Nelson in 2005. She said that at over 10 percent, it would return some excellent candidates, including West Coast-Tasman’s Kevin Hague and possibly former Nelson-based MP Mike Ward, number 14 on the party list.

She made “no apologies” for trying to boost party votes, even at the expense of Labour, saying it would be “even more crucial to get Green people into Parliament if National becomes the government”, to keep the environmental flag flying.

8 Comments Posted

  1. I’ll make a diary entry to remind myself. In the meantime, I’ll see if I can get some info (also after the election) on what the undecideds were in the week before the election. I always find it interesting that they are NEVER included in the main survey findings.

  2. Oh, Dave S, I can’t be bothered going into it now and dredging up the statistics from previous elections. Would take me an hour or so, and right now my focus is on campaigning to improve the Green vote.

    The Greens also have direct evidence of this through our own market research, but I have that information confidentially, so am not at liberty to post the research supporting it here.

    So ask me again after the election, when I might have time (and even might have permission to release the Green market research information, although that is also up to the research company, not just us in the Greens).

  3. Toad

    re “The “undecideds” 2 weeks out from the election (the exact polling period wasn’t disclosed by the Nelson Mail, but presumably that is close) traditionally vote disproportionately in favour of the Greens.”

    Evidence please, this is a big claim!

  4. kahikatea
    my apologies, you are quite correct – I read 2 instead of 5, maybe I am catching oldfartitus after all, (only in the eyes though – where it makes things look smaller than they are!) 🙂

  5. The “undecideds” 2 weeks out from the election (the exact polling period wasn’t disclosed by the Nelson Mail, but presumably that is close) traditionally vote disproportionately in favour of the Greens.

    So this is looking good – I predict the Greens in the Nelson electorate will exceed the 10.1% Green support revealed by the poll. If this is reflected in nationwide polling, it could just get Mike Ward back into Parliament (the Roy Morgan poll last Friday would also have him back), despite his having dropped 6 places on the Green Party list since the 2005 election.

    Many artists and sportspeople would love to see him there again, and if the Greens are in Government, Mike’s presence would be a real bonus for arts and sports interests.

  6. wow! 36% undecided! Leaves BIIIIIG room for a swing! I wonder which way it will go? THis should be one for the blog on November 10th!

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