by frog
The news last night described this as the Greens ‘cannibalising’ Labour’s vote. Well, it was more of a nibble than a large bite – there’s a lot more that we could bite off yet I think of Labour’s voters that know they now have a choice between Labour-NZ First and Labour-Green.
Actually in the last month Labour’s vote finally seems to have stabilised from its steady downward fall over the last year. National’s vote has softened slightly – So it’s not strictly true to say the Greens are taking our vote directly from Labour. The Greens seem to be picking up votes from those who now see us as the alternative way to really change the Labour government without getting John Key. So my guess is that we are taking soft votes off both National and Labour.
EDIT – I’ve just spotted the Herald Digipoll has not such a good number for us (5.4 percent) but still shows our vote tracking up according to the general trend. This is good and the Herald poll is traditionally the one the Greens seem to perform worst in, so our overall average result should continue to rise.
on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
You can feel it in the air! Last night at a candidate meeting in Invercargill Metiria Turei clean-swept the debate on education. What a confident and capable woman she is. Eric Roy took a hammering over National’s ‘Fire at Will’ bill ( it affects schools where there are fewer than 20 employees!) and looked flummoxed. Are there ructions in the Nat camp at present? Curious atmosphere emminating from there at the moment. Could be the polls
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To be expected this close to the election, and if a climate branding party can’t get traction when global warming and “being green” is this trendy, then when?
I hope National lose this election to an MMP style overhang.
Why?
The economy is a basket case, and the messy coalition will not hold together under an economic downturn. The public will be angry with MMP and with smaller parties.
It might be the end of the left for over a decade.
The Nats should play the long game….
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That’s the sort of reporting I like to hear two weeks out from an election!
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Interesting how many right wing revolutionaries are around these days!
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Given Nationals pollling, the mood is clearly for change and a slight swing to the right.
Remember why MMP was brought in in the first place. It was mainly because Labour got more votes than National, but lost the election due to peculiarities of the seats system.
If MMP produces a result that against the mood due to peculiarities of the system, then how legitimate will the government be in the eyes of the electorate? Especially if you have small parties seeming to undermine the will of the most people by insisting on fringe agenda.
May we live in interesting times. We most certainly do
I hope National lose, and the Labour First Green axis are left to confront the economic reality. Hint: raising taxes ‘aint going to achieve squat.
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Without taking weird Maori seat stuff into account (can I?) then a (*sigh*) Labour-NZF-Green coalition or ‘parliamentary majority’ would be totally legitimate, wouldn’t it – ‘mood for change’ or not.
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Not really. Very few people – i.e. those who understand the minutiae of MMP and strategic voting – vote with the post-arrangements in mind. Nobody even knows what they’ll be. Under MMP, we all get “surprised”.
And yes, the overhang is important. And racist. And unfair. And undemocratic.
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BP you acknowledge that both FFP and MMP produce “peculiarities”. Your preferred voting system then?
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I really hope the greens don’t think that a 4 or 5 headed political monster is a good thing for NZ. Seriously it will not work.
Either way this election is going to be very interesting, in a strange (sick?) way it would be interesting what would happen with labour in for a 4th term.
May be thats what NZers need to wake them up and get over this love affair with socialism once and for all, it would certainly be a mess!!
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BP is echoing a sentiment that a growing number of Republicans in the USA are voicing, given that it seems likely that Obama will get the ticket – let the Dems have a go make a mess of it, and then ride in four years later as the saviour.
And they are right, or at least in part – the chances are whoever gets the reigns for the next term in the ‘States is in for a rough ride, and will probably end up not getting a second term…
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Yes I suppose people vote for their party of choice’s representation in Parliament, rather than taking into account post-election arrangements.
“Under MMP, we all get “surprised”. ”
Well, unless they declare their hand before the election a la the Greens, although unfortunately this is seen as a ‘bad tactical move’!
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Interesting scenario with the Maori seats. Now that the Maori Party and Labour are “joined at the hip” according to Pita Sharples.
The Maori seats will never be abolished, meaning that the Maori sovereignty idea must be a dead duck.
For to get Maori sovereingty and set up their own parliament, they will need to divorce themselves completely (give up the Maori seat) from the westminister parliamant as used by the rest of the people of New Zealand.
I agree with PB in regards the economic condition that New Zealand is in, will not be conducive for minor political parties wishing to form a coalition government with either Labour or National to get their wish list (Auckland and Wellington passenger rail options for example) implemented.
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Dunno bout that dbuckley, there seem to be quite a few American conservatives voting for Obama on the basis that a) he is not McCain/Palin; and b) he seems generally competent and intelligent. I’ve never seen anything on ‘letting the Dems screw everything up’ – more that the Republicans have messed themselves up so bad that it’ll take them years to recover after they lose this ( Republicans are saying this!). I digress.
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You can say what you will about the expected longevity of multi party coalitions, but it is ridiculous to say that a government without the biggest party included is not legitimate. Nor would NZ be at all unique in this. Just because the conservative vote is less fractionalised than the progressive vote doesn’t mean a thing. The vast majority of Green and Maori Party supporters would prefer a Labour led govt. If we end up with an LPGM govt that can claim over 50% of the vote, then that outcome would in no way be “against the mood”, particularly as the preference has been signaled beforehand. This is precicesly why the Greens announced before the election. The wrong outcome, not to mention even more unstable, would be if one of these parties went with the Nats.
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>>The vast majority of Green and Maori Party supporters would prefer a Labour led govt.
Which means around 8% of the vote.
The other 92% call that a tail.
And therein lies your problem.
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Be an interesting scenario if Maori interests say, wanted to log native forest on their own land.
Would the Greens protest?
Would they pull out of the axis of the willing?
What other scenarios can one foresee that the Labour party would need to handle?
Coal exports from Maori owned mines?
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>>axis of the willing
Axis of irrelevance.
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After the 8th of November and the Maori party is in a position to kng make either labour or National, constitutionally how long have they got to make up their minds?
Holding huie’s up and down the country to ask the people for a mandate could take months if not a year.
Who governs?
Labour carries on as though it is a bloodless coup?
Or parliament is called together and the biggest party tries to form a government?
What mandate does the Governor General have to call another election if noone can form a government?
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“Which means around 8% of the vote.
The other 92% call that a tail. ”
no what it means is that a majority of new zealanders who would prefer a labour-led coalition to national plunder will get their way.
“The Nats should play the long game….”
yes the longer the better. 9 years in opposition is nowhere near enough. they should try for 90…
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The Labour people I know are voting Labour becuase they want Labour. They don’t care for you, or the Maori Party for that matter.
Hence the reason they are voting for Labour, and not the Greens.
How many times has it been said on here that a vote for the Greens is a vote for the Greens? Ergo, a vote for Labour is a vote for Labour, not the Greens.
>>yes the longer the better. 9 years in opposition is nowhere near enough. they should try for 90…
That’s so witty. Really, I’m laughing. Ho-ho. You slay me. Oh, thank the lord for the gift of laughter….
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“The Labour people I know are voting Labour becuase they want Labour.”
are you really misreading what I wrote? the labour people you know would prefer labour to be in government and hence must support a coalition arrangement that delivers this. the minor parties generally have influence pretty proportional to the votes they recieve.
“That’s so witty. Really, I’m laughing. Ho-ho. You slay me. Oh, thank the lord for the gift of laughter….”
better a wit than a half…
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“>>The vast majority of Green and Maori Party supporters would prefer a Labour led govt.
Which means around 8% of the vote.
The other 92% call that a tail.
And therein lies your problem.”
Only because you changed the question. What’s that got to do with National? We were dicsussing whether its “against the mood” if the largest party doesn’t end up in govt. So long as a majority prefers that the largest party is *not* in government, there isn’t a problem.
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>>hence must support a coalition arrangement that delivers this.
No, they don’t like the Greens. I think it’s only true to say they don’t want National.
>>better a wit than a half…
No…please….stop….sides aching…..laughter…almost…unbearable….
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>>So long as a majority prefers that the largest party is *not* in government
I don’t think a lot of people see it that way. Confirms my suspicion, though. The Greens are largely about keeping National out.
So much for “working with anyone”. Best change that to “enabling Labour”.
Which is the truth, Ruth.
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“No, they don’t like the Greens. I think it’s only true to say they don’t want National.”
then they’ll get what they want. if they hate the greens more than national they should vote strategically.
“So long as a majority prefers that the largest party is *not* in government, there isn’t a problem.”
precisely, V
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“The Greens are largely about keeping National out.”
given that the nats are largely about reversing the positive work the greens have done and pushing policies in the opposite direction from the greens this is a perfectly valid position for them.
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>>then they’ll get what they want.
What part of “they hate the Greens” don’t you understand?
They want Labour, sans third parties. Quite frankly, even I’d settle for Labour sans third parties.
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“What part of “they hate the Greens” don’t you understand?”
what part of living in a MMP democracy don’t you understand? everyone gets one vote. they get counted, the majority form a government. have you got a suggestion for a fairer method? america perhaps where if you are in the minority in your state your vote does not count?
“They want Labour, sans third parties”
I want frogblog sans bluepeter but you can’t always get what you want.
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“better a wit than a half…”
That is actually pretty good.
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>>you can’t always get what you want.
But if you try sometimes, you get what you need….
>>have you got a suggestion for a fairer method?
STV.
Get rid of the Maori seats.
If we’re to keep MMP, then raise the threshold to prevent unrepresentative tail wagging. Perhaps insist that a party must win at least one electorate seat, regardless of percentage. More accountability.
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I agree that STV is good, but MMP is a lot better than FPP which brings me to:
“insist that a party must win at least one electorate seat” which would essentially reintroduce FPP meaning that the good 30% or so of NZers who aren’t ‘mainstream’ would once again be unrepresented. what you call tail wagging the dog is actually just negotiation which is a fact of life.
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BTW, DPF puts it well:
” The kids (the minor parties) are getting excited over what their post-election pocket money will be, but they do not seem to have realised that Mum and Dad have run out of money just paying for their own treats.
Parties such as the Greens, Maori Party and NZ First have scores of high spending policies, and don’t seem to realise that they are unlikely to get any of them. The cupboard is now just bare.”
This is why I hoping for a LabourGreenFirstMaori axis.
It will be a total clownfest…..before violently imploding under the weight of titantic fiscal pressures…not to mention bruised egos….
Here’s how it will go. Labour will promise the Greens absolutely nothing, except “together, we’ll all keep National out!”. It will give Winston what Winston always wants. Baubles. The Maori Party will get whatever they want, so long as it isn’t expensive.
And that will be that.
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>>would once again be unrepresented. what you call tail wagging
The people who are least represented are the ones paying for the whole show. The top 10%…..
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“It will give Winston what Winston always wants.”
You seem to presume he’ll get back in?!
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“The people who are least represented are the ones paying for the whole show. The top 10%…..”
yes that 10% can do without the rest of us. are you suggesting you should get votes proportional to your wealth? you should move to the usa…
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I would mind *some* representation….
Mind you, tax away! The last time they did that (39%), we bought property. I don’t think it has done the country any good, but until the left gets a clue about taxation, they’ll be forever slicing from a diminishing pie.
Accountants always move faster than the government can….
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wouldn’t ….I wouldn’t mind *some* representation….
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“>>So long as a majority prefers that the largest party is *not* in government
I don’t think a lot of people see it that way.”
For you to be right, you have to assume that Green/MP/Prog voters would vote Nats if they couldn’t vote their preferred party.
“Confirms my suspicion, though. The Greens are largely about keeping National out.
So much for “working with anyone”. Best change that to “enabling Labour”.
That’s just your spin. “Working with anyone” has never meant forming a coalition with anyone. We’ve been very clear about that, no need to have suspicions. But if the Nats really want to do something credible on the environment (going against all indications in the campaign so far), they will find us very keen to assist.
“Which is the truth, Ruth.”
Again your spin. We’ll be trying to further our policy goals. The fantasy is to pretend we’d be just as likely to do that with the Nats as Labour.
Why is it no one ever demands that Rodney pretend he could go with Labour?
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“I wouldn’t mind *some* representation….”
start a rich person’s party, I’m sure you’ll do well. oh wait that would be National and ACT.
your arguments are mental: the tail shouldn’t wag the dog but the 10% at the top of the economic tree should somehow wag whatever they want. you do have *some* representation. that of whoever you vote for.
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>>start a rich person’s party,
What would be the point? Still, so long as Labour consist mostly of rich pr**ks, it can’t go too pear shaped….
>>should somehow wag whatever they want
No. I think think the best ideas for the country should win.
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“What would be the point?”
what is your point?
“No. I think think the best ideas for the country should win.”
perfectly consistent with your statement upthread that you hope national lose. that’s a first for you BP
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I don’t think the best ideas do win, because most people are incapable of understanding them even when they are spelled out to them. That’s democracy.
Kinda like trying to explain economics to greenies….
You know, if something costs X and you only have “less than X”, then you can’t have X.
Complicated stuff, I know….
I guess you’ll find out more if Labour does return to office….
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“You know, if something costs X and you only have “less than X”, then you can’t have X.
Complicated stuff, I know….”
You better go talk to the Nats before they borrow for all those tax cuts then. I’m sure they’ll appreciate your simple wisdom.
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No…please….stop….sides aching…..laughter…almost…unbearable….
you’re awesome BP
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“simple wisdom.” …yes, …or wise simpleton?
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BP do you really think that most people vote without considering potential coalitions?
It might be that I am young enough to have been taught about mmp at school (was at high school when the referendum was held) but I have always voted for a minor party so that they could sway a major party in the direction i thought they should go.
I also notice in areas like epsom national voters voting for Rodney so that ACT get back in.
I fell most of the public understand this and it may even be the reason the greens are doing well in the polls as many New Zealanders want a left wing government with a green influence as opposed to the centralist influence we got last time.
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BP,
you seem to be missing out on one important fact; if you dont have X the government will more than make up the difference, and if not, you can always strike until your boss gives you more
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New Morgan poll. Labour down, greens up seriously to 11.5%, NZF flirting with 5%. Using the MMP calculator gives N 55, ACT 4, UF 1 (=60) / L 41, G 15, JAP 1 (=57), and the Maori Party holding the balance of power no matter how many seats it wins (but only able to make Labour the government if it wins at least 5).
Standard caveats about Morgan polls (overestimate Greens, underestimate National, 2-week polling period) apply.
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Now if the Greens had only kept their powder dry, they could be in the position to play puppet master, instead of the racist party..
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You mean the Greens should have lied about what sort of government we’d support?
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the Greens, pulling the strings of the big parties, making them dance to their merry socialist tunes … he he he! Yes, that would win us across-the-board support samiam!
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Hey! John Key stole my 5 headed monster comment!!!
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The greens could have told the truth about which environmental policies it would prioritise and leave the negotiation open till after the election, where’s the dishonesty in that?
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shunda – there’s personal proof for you that he can’t be trusted
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1. Can’t trust the Nats to go against their instincts. Its not like they are even making the slightest noise that they will do anything positive for the environment.
2. What about the other seven policy areas?
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tell you what Valis, give your party vote to national, and I will personally make sure they sort out the environment stuff, deal?
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Sure, just go to bed and dream anything you want.
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Can’t go to bed, keep having nightmares about a 5 headed monster
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Boo
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ahhhhh stop that!
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