Comments on: OPEC struggles to control peak oil fluctuations http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/ hopping along the corridors of power Thu, 18 Mar 2010 11:46:52 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Kevyn http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-62174 Kevyn Sat, 25 Oct 2008 16:19:27 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-62174 Optimist, You need to understand how elasticity affects the behaviour of the supply and demand curves to appreciate how peak oil will cause the same dramatic prices booms and crashes that housing has experienced in areas with limits on subdivisions. A simple explanation of the latter effects can be found here http://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=527 Optimist, You need to understand how elasticity affects the behaviour of the supply and demand curves to appreciate how peak oil will cause the same dramatic prices booms and crashes that housing has experienced in areas with limits on subdivisions.

A simple explanation of the latter effects can be found here
http://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=527

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]]> By: The Optimist http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-62071 The Optimist Fri, 24 Oct 2008 22:22:36 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-62071 > As I’ve noted previously the dramatic falls and rises in price are indication that we are hitting peak oil. Can you please provide a link to your musing on this subject? Surely you are not suggesting that falls in price are also due to peak oil? If OPEC succeeds in cutting production without making Iran and Venezuale going bust, will this mean that peak oil will be stopped? What exactly causes peak oil in your mind - the increase in production or the reduction in production? > As I’ve noted previously the dramatic falls and rises in price are indication that we are hitting peak oil.

Can you please provide a link to your musing on this subject? Surely you are not suggesting that falls in price are also due to peak oil?

If OPEC succeeds in cutting production without making Iran and Venezuale going bust, will this mean that peak oil will be stopped? What exactly causes peak oil in your mind – the increase in production or the reduction in production?

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]]> By: dbuckley http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61942 dbuckley Thu, 23 Oct 2008 21:03:42 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61942 OPEC must be over the moon. I've previously described them as a "spent force", given that oil was being produced at full tilt just about everywhere it could be, and OPEC, despite much mouthing off, couldn't actually deliver sufficent additional oil to reduce price. So it just didnt matter any more what OPEC thought they could do. Now look where we are. Demand has dropped significantly so there is no longer a day-on-day shortage, and oil prices have tanked (oops - bad pun). So once again, OPEC gets its hands on the price of oil. Amazing. The global economy falling to bits ahead of peak oil is an event I certainly hadn't considered a little way back, I'd expected it the other way round. But here we are. Of course if the price of oil stays too low, then many sources of supply will be mothballed as too expensive. You can do things when oil sells for $120 that you cant do when its $50. So this could be the start of a continuous bumpy ride... OPEC must be over the moon.

I’ve previously described them as a “spent force”, given that oil was being produced at full tilt just about everywhere it could be, and OPEC, despite much mouthing off, couldn’t actually deliver sufficent additional oil to reduce price. So it just didnt matter any more what OPEC thought they could do.

Now look where we are. Demand has dropped significantly so there is no longer a day-on-day shortage, and oil prices have tanked (oops – bad pun). So once again, OPEC gets its hands on the price of oil.

Amazing. The global economy falling to bits ahead of peak oil is an event I certainly hadn’t considered a little way back, I’d expected it the other way round. But here we are.

Of course if the price of oil stays too low, then many sources of supply will be mothballed as too expensive. You can do things when oil sells for $120 that you cant do when its $50. So this could be the start of a continuous bumpy ride…

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]]> By: Kevyn http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61918 Kevyn Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:12:54 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61918 "A graph that looks like a gentle arc, rather than an jagged mountain range…" For oil? Must've been for Extra Virgin Olive Oil. Perhaps Frog can report the weekly or monthly average price for the last twenty years. Ten years of gentle arc - downwards, followed by ten years of jagged mountain range upwards. She get's real steep past Candy's Bend, mate. “A graph that looks like a gentle arc, rather than an jagged mountain range…”

For oil? Must’ve been for Extra Virgin Olive Oil. Perhaps Frog can report the weekly or monthly average price for the last twenty years. Ten years of gentle arc – downwards, followed by ten years of jagged mountain range upwards. She get’s real steep past Candy’s Bend, mate.

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]]> By: Strings http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61861 Strings Thu, 23 Oct 2008 02:39:54 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61861 If I owned the oil I'd be looking for a price increase too! After all, the buggers who use the stuff just wrecked my investment portfolio, by insisting that people who couldn't afford them be allowed to buy houses on the never never. Now I need to top up my resources again for my great grand children, who will need the money when the oil runs out. You see, the earth's strata is multi-layered, and right now we can only get out the energy that's within twelve miles of the surface, but the GGKids will be able to buy better technology if we keep the money flowing now, and sell heat-pump energy from magma. After all, there's no NIH syndrome in the desert! If I owned the oil I’d be looking for a price increase too! After all, the buggers who use the stuff just wrecked my investment portfolio, by insisting that people who couldn’t afford them be allowed to buy houses on the never never. Now I need to top up my resources again for my great grand children, who will need the money when the oil runs out.

You see, the earth’s strata is multi-layered, and right now we can only get out the energy that’s within twelve miles of the surface, but the GGKids will be able to buy better technology if we keep the money flowing now, and sell heat-pump energy from magma. After all, there’s no NIH syndrome in the desert!

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]]> By: bjchip http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61850 bjchip Thu, 23 Oct 2008 02:16:17 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61850 Greater variability or a steadily rising price on the back of decreased supply is an indication but I am sure I still don't understand how you came to agree <i>"We is doomed! Doomed I tells yah!"</i> with us :-) Peak Oil is not about price. Price reflects the demand as well as the ability to supply. Peak Oil is about the ability to supply, and we aren't doomed to anything but change. The only way it becomes a bad certain fate as opposed to a certain fate is if we don't accept it and then do nothing to compensate for it. respectfully BJ Greater variability or a steadily rising price on the back of decreased supply is an indication but I am sure I still don’t understand how you came to agree “We is doomed! Doomed I tells yah!” with us :-)

Peak Oil is not about price. Price reflects the demand as well as the ability to supply. Peak Oil is about the ability to supply, and we aren’t doomed to anything but change. The only way it becomes a bad certain fate as opposed to a certain fate is if we don’t accept it and then do nothing to compensate for it.

respectfully
BJ

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]]> By: BluePeter http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61833 BluePeter Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:44:03 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61833 Lack of rapid fluctuations, BJ.... A graph that looks like a gentle arc, rather than an jagged mountain range... Lack of rapid fluctuations, BJ….

A graph that looks like a gentle arc, rather than an jagged mountain range…

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]]> By: bjchip http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61829 bjchip Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:32:40 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61829 BP Where does anyone but you say that? And if the price is steadily rising as the supply decreases then it isn't actually steady. I think you overreached here. BJ BP

Where does anyone but you say that? And if the price is steadily rising as the supply decreases then it isn’t actually steady.

I think you overreached here.

BJ

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]]> By: BluePeter http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61824 BluePeter Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:26:59 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61824 Steady rising as supply decreases.... We is doomed! Doomed I tells yah! Steady rising as supply decreases….

We is doomed! Doomed I tells yah!

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]]> By: Valis http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61817 Valis Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:11:58 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61817 "No. It seems a steady price also points to peak oil. " Who's made that claim? Not any of the peak oil people I've read. “No. It seems a steady price also points to peak oil. ”

Who’s made that claim? Not any of the peak oil people I’ve read.

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]]> By: BluePeter http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61816 BluePeter Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:03:34 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61816 "As I’ve noted previously the dramatic falls and rises in price are indication that we are hitting peak oil. " And if the price didn't fluctuate wildly, the opposite would be true? ;) No. It seems a steady price also points to peak oil. Kind of like temperate rising AND falling are indications that AGW is a big problem.... ;) Nice to have a bet each way, eh.... “As I’ve noted previously the dramatic falls and rises in price are indication that we are hitting peak oil. ”

And if the price didn’t fluctuate wildly, the opposite would be true? ;) No. It seems a steady price also points to peak oil.

Kind of like temperate rising AND falling are indications that AGW is a big problem…. ;)

Nice to have a bet each way, eh….

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]]> By: dangermoose http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61810 dangermoose Thu, 23 Oct 2008 00:53:22 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/10/23/opec-struggles-to-control-peak-oil-fluctuations/#comment-61810 freaky. freaky.

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