by frog
I’ve always been a bit wary of the Roy Morgan poll since the 2005 election where it proved itself to be a bit of an outlier, especially in relation to the Greens. Nevertheless its consistency of support for ‘third’ parties seems easier to believe than the up again, down again fluctuation that other polls often show.
And of course it’s hard to look unfavourably on a poll that puts the Greens at 8 percent. In fact toad’s enthusiasm for the elect Mojo Mathers cause becomes infectious.
Like the Standard has previously I tend to disagree with Roy Morgan’s analysis of it’s own poll. Gary Morgan attributes the shifts in support between National and Labour to ‘a personal tragedy on a camping trip taken by Helen Clark’ and ‘a clear policy direction from the opposition National Party’. I’m more inclined to think it shows that Labour’s negative campaigning might be beginning to weigh down on National and it’s struggling to shrug off attacks as easily as it was earlier this year.
Published in Environment & Resource Management by frog on Fri, September 5th, 2008
Tags: Mojo Mathers, poll, Roy Morgan
on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
Notice Nationals immigration policy; described by Labour as “check book” immigration. Notice also that the property market is in a downer with more subdivisions than people to fill them ( Bayleys are “extending their efforts overseas” http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/2038185 ).
So who backs National an what do they want? And which party gives a hoot (apart from NZ First)?
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Gee wiz NZ economy is short of skills so National is going to fix that and (on another planet) Auckland could have a population the size of Christchurch added in 25 years….. “we are going to need hospitals, schools…” and more schools….. Sure lets you see who runs the place don’t it…
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So it seems that Kiwi’s are happy to see their politicians telling lies, being deeply involved in NZ’s very own Watergate, running a negative “politics of envy campaign” and being downright corrupt.
We really are a small minded nation with a real loser mentality and a media that is terrified of dear leader.
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big bro is ‘hurting’..because the perception/understanding that national/key are lying through their teeth..
..is getting well bedded in..
..(a recent poll showing 50% of punters believe/key/national are just telling us what they think/their focus groups have told them..
..what we want to hear..
the emphasis on such facts as key is the most inexperienced..by a country mile..of all those who have stood for pm..
..is also hurting him..
..(especially as the economic storms offshore build..
..clark/cullen are looking more and more ‘a safe pair of hands’..
..and key more and more ‘the gambler’/wide-boy..
..and the ashcroft visit wouldn’t have helped assuage those fears about the real agendae of key/national..
..and just looping back to america for a moment..
..sarah palin is having her ‘early-key’ days..
..eh..?
..whereas key has now sai;led into more choppy waters..
..and of course..clark will demolish key during the campaign debates..
..and likewise cullen will monster english..
..it’d have to be ‘worry-bead-time’..down at natty hq..
wouldn’tyathink..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
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The elephant in the room is why Auckland needs to grow the size of Christchurch over the next 25 years (“it’s what we do stupid”).
I See RAM is going nationwide.
I don’t see why communist types can’t (at times) put their energys into something positive.
http://newzeal.blogspot.com/
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The elephant in the room is why Auckland needs to grow the size of Christchurch over the next 25 years (“it’s what we do stupid”).
I See RAM is going nationwide.
I don’t see why communist types can’t (at times) put their energys into something positive.
http://tinyurl.com/3729jj
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>>wouldn’tyathink..?
It’s way simpler than that.
When it comes to the voting booth, people will vote with their wallets. Lange talked the cost of bread, Muldoon talked high concept. Lange won.
You vote with your wallet, don’t you Phil.
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Heres the plan:
John Key speech to Contractors Federation ["by the way: Thank$!"]
We face a golden opportunity to become a more prosperous country. The Internet is bringing New Zealand businesses closer to international markets. Demand is booming for the commodities we produce, especially dairy products. The world wants to buy protein and we are one of its biggest exporters. Countries are willing to pay good money for the food we produce, and we have a natural advantage in producing it.
What is more, some of those countries – particularly China and India – are getting wealthier all the time. They have a growing middle class, which more and more will want to buy high-quality foods. They want to travel. They want to educate their children. They will want safe places to locate their businesses.
[note he's carefull not to mention filling subdivisions, but the inference is obvious. he will be ok in his apartment in Hawaii ]
They will look to New Zealand for these things . And they will do this on a scale that is almost unimaginable.
[imagine adding Christchurch's population to Aucklands in 25 years ....and for whose benefit?]
http://www.johnkey.co.nz/index.php?/archives/221-NEWSLETTER-Key-Notes-No.-17.html
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BB said: …Kiwi’s are happy to see their politicians telling lies…
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“Glass houses and stones” is the saying that comes to mind Toad.
Remember the way that the Greens cynically manipulated the electoral system to get Red Russ into the house and then claimed that it was the democratic choice of Green member?
Remember the way that the Greens pretended to take public opinion into consideration when deciding to support the ETS.
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Here we go again. You are simply wrong on both accounts. After Green members put Russel at no 2 on the list and Mike Ward at 13 just a few months out from an election you expect people to believe that they’d rather have Mike in for a few months instead of Russel. Its just ridiculous. And Greens in Parliament are reporting to other Greens that the ETS feedback was very useful in at least two ways. First was that no new issues were raised that hadn’t been thought of already. Second was learning that environmental NGOs and their members were overwhelmingly in support of the ETS. This was previously an area of uncertainty because some NGOs had been talking against the ETS in months past, just as the Greens were.
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phil u
Excellent post!
I’m interested in the negative feedback.
I’ve been forcing myself to watch National’s “Election Strategy”.
So far it is incredibly transparent …
1. Their going to a non Kiwi advertising company was a risk in itself.
(It is OK for buying toothpaste, but “this is OUR Election.”)
2. Advertising in general is aimed at “Low-Average IQ of approx 80+” and the National ads that I have seen seem to be on target there.
3. The questions I would ask are:
a. Have they targeted the ads at the MAJORITY group that will actually get out and vote?
b. Have they factored in the Kiwi dislike of inappropriately imported stuff.
Time will tell !
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eredwen
“Have they factored in the Kiwi dislike of inappropriately imported stuff.”
Are you talking about Dr Norman?
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Eredwen said: Advertising in general is aimed at “Low-Average IQ of approx 80+? and the National ads that I have seen seem to be on target there.
Like this one, eredwen???
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i’ve just seen the campaign posters on the telly..
..and they are really good..!
(knock me over with a feather..!..)
crisp/clean/simple/futurist/urgent/potent..
..they have it all..!
..well done..!..to whoever..
..phil(whoar.co.nz)
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as opposed to the confusing dreck being pumped out by national..
..heh..!
..phil(whoar.co.nz)
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Hate to say this, but I said “yes” when Roy Morgan asked if I wanted to keep a week long media diary. When it turned up in the post it was over 100 pages long, and packed with so much detail about my ever bead of sweat, my every gastric function, my minutest transaction, financial, emotional, social, environmental, that I took one look and binned it.
Correction: I spent half an hour filling in the first few pages and then thought bugger this and then binned it.
I know two other people who’ve done exactly the same thing, and never met anyone who said they proceeded through the entire excercise.
I think their survey is so bad that it doesn’t warrant any discussion by anyone, other than dismissal.
Meanwhile: the Greens have two-and-a-bit months to remind the electorate that they understand more than how to hug a tree.
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What the latest polls say is clear.
Labour has been faced with a public looking for an alternative government – first it was one sharing out the surplus in personal tax cuts. Then it was one helping them through the economic recession pain with tax cuts. So once Labour gave its tax plan – it was dismissed as too little too late, but Labour’s claim that one could not afford more and sustain public services has left the public perhaps wondering, if they could trust National to be able to deliver.
For months National has enjoyed the poll lead, but not the public’s trust. Of the last month or so evidence of reason for this lack of trust has come to light and this combined with wonder at National and its right wing partner working together to take out the centrist NZ First (aided and abetted by a compliant media and FPP fans like Mike Moore) has given voters pause.
If people don’t trust National – and centrist parties which block extremes on the left and right are being removed by the right – they might conclude that Labour might be the safer (more transparent) pair of hands once more. In a referendum between a FPP (National are pushing SM) National-ACT government or a Labour led MMP coalition this race will close.
I still suspect National with ACT and United will go close to getting half the seats – then the question is whether the Maori Party or Greens would give them confidence and supply or form a joint negotiation team and do so collectively (supporting subsequent legislation in return for concessions to both parties). The could of course alternatively support a 4th term Labour government. If they do this, the right will regret NZF not being there to prevent it. As someone who once advised a Green-Maori arrangement (before the MP was formed – in the Fox days of 2002), I sometimes wonder at the hubris of those who try and have it all.
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SPC…I think the re-emergence of Roger Douglas has scared a lot of voters away from National.
Add to that the outcome of ACTs attempts to destroy NZ First…ie the likelihood of most NZF voters switching to Labour and Greens.
Those two factors have chopped National at the knees.
I didn’t see it coming and I think it has changed the face of the election quite a bit.
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