Aristophanes,

If you’re not prepared to defend yourself, then you live at the sufferance of the powerful. That goes for your democratic rights here in NZ, as well as defence against a foreign enemy. Would you give up your rights, just because you can’t beat the police in a fight?

As for the racial dimension, I bring up China because it’s the biggest kid on our block. I’d be just as concerned by a million Californian refugees as I would be by a million Chinese ones.

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jingyang, ta, yeah i’m not up with politics in your area of the world, I just based those comments on the US’s willingness to rattle sabres/aircraft carriers in the Formosa Strait. Don’t know nuthin’ about ‘selling out’.

I think a formal attack is more likely than armed pirates/refugees since there isn’t really anywhere for them to base themselves, NZ being the most isolated country in the world, without a maze of islands for people like that to base themselves, like is the case around Indonesia. I still think a formal attack is pretty damn unlikely going on how far away we away we are, the length and resulting cost of a long supply line etc…if someone really had a greivance with us, some sort of enforced military barrier would probably be the best bet.

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Bloated dairy cows perhaps?

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But our defence policy is only limited, right? What about if you subject yourself to surgical procedures like plastic surgery and the reason for going under the knife is because of a freak accident or specifically, you need to take off a few pounds so you can be slimmer and prevent heart attacks or something like that? That’s why, I settle for diet programs instead of surgery but I do prefer surgery to get rid of fats! I’m a lazy person, too lazy to even go jogging! In my opinion, they should try to reconsider or amend these defence policies.

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Ah, but we’re even running down our sheep numbers. All hope is lost!

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With apologies to BigBro..
We need ‘attack sheep’ genetically modified to explode when the filthy hoards happen by.

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>>What are you afraid of?

It’s interesting to entertain the effects of forces such as AGW, Peak Oil, etc, doncha think? Personally, I doubt it will come to any of this, as energy is not a difficult problem to solve.

Food is an interesting one….

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Dear oh dear boys

You should be ashamed of yourselves squabbling over sticks like this!

What are you afraid of? The yellow peril again is it?

‘if the Chinese do keep it together, and do come this way, then we are in trouble’

That’s quite right – and we should accept that as a fait accompli. We can only hope that they will be enlightened enough to sign a treaty with us that amounts to the same meaning in both languages, and that they subsequently hold to their side of the bargain.

Attempting to build some kind of home-grown war machine, or resorting to a complex and outdated global alliance of Anglophonic countries, to hold sway over the most numerous populace in the world, is frankly madness.

at the Risk of sounding flippant, this is not about war games people, but about the evolution of people.

See you at the bar.

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Correction: worst case scenario – a together, hostile China – as Tane describes, for which there is no viable defense.

Interesting stuff. Anyone got any further reading on these possible future geopolitical scenarios?

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No matter how much we tool up, we’re not going to prevent an invasion. Too much coast, too little money.

Our protection lies with our allies, a patrolling navy, and ground forces. Leave the air capability to Australia. Stay close with Australia. Supply Australias food. If the worst case scenario pans out, and Asia splinters into factional warlords, then this may provide suitable protection.

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stephenR,

US committment to Taiwan is a rather dubious proposition and wouldn’t matter a rats arse if the current KMT government there manage to successfully sell out their country to China anyway. If China does annex/make a deal with Taiwan, then their power projection capacity would increase since they would have much easier access to the open Pacific Ocean and be able to put a serious squeeze upon Japan. As you say though, this depends upon China holding together through their increasingly serious social and environmental problem.

http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/ is a good English language starting point for following Taiwanese politics.

Another unconcious assumption that shouldn’t be made is assuming that any threat to NZ would necessarily be a “formal” military attack by a nation state. I think a somewhat more likely scenario is an increase in heavily armed pirates/refugees, which at the very least would make our overseas trading increasingly difficult.

Ironically the idea of NZ having a Swiss-style territorial army was the policy of the New Zealand Party in 1984, and I still think that it is an option worth pursuing.

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Tane, it is possible that we have large quantities of oil off our south coast, unfortunately it is difficult to access due to heavy seas such as in the North Sea of the Atlantic. We also have excellent agricultural land, ideal for an overpopulated country wishing to ensure security of food supply. A large nation such as China could look in our direction instead of the Middle East, rather than afterwards.

We don’t have the resources for a massive military. But we should at least have decent surface-to-air missiles to defend against aerial attack, and some reasonable sized weaponry on our ships rather than the piddly stuff at present. We could probably afford some small submarines.

Being an island we need to focus on the air force and navy. There are plenty of private guns in this country, if you wanted to pull together a large home guard you could do so easily. The issue would be heavy firepower, which is why the military needs to have enough of this. Infantry aren’t the issue, you can pull them together at short notice if need be. You can’t make ships or planes at short notice.

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BluePeter,

That depends on whether there is a ‘China’ rather than say ‘Mass of Warring States’. They’ve done this before in their history, and under the massive pressures of Peak Oil, Cliimate Change and their own overpopulation, I think that China is going to fly to bits (and sadly, it’s going to be bloody awful when they do).

Some of them might turn their attention our way. But a coherent China striding our way is unlikely I think. It could only happen if the Chinese can gain almost sole access to the oil in the Middle East, pushing the Yanks aside. And I don’t see that happening (the Yanks still control the oceans, and if push comes to shove, will likely nuke the oil fields rather than surrender access).

Mind you, if the Chinese do keep it together, and do come this way, then we are in trouble. I guess we’ll see how it pans out.

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China being able to project power that far away is a loooong way off, but never the less, the US seems very willing to put it on the line to defend Taiwan, so for those purposes, what would enable us to get in a similar position to Taiwan?

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Wow, I agree with Tane about something. Well said.

Yes, we need to be part of ANZUS. Mind you, I do wonder who could possibly defend NZ from, say, China, if it ever came to that.

I strongly suspect we’d just have to roll over.

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Kahikatea and StephenR are right, we will be at the end of a long supply chain, and combat aircraft will be scarce. So fortunately for us, we don’t need a hyper-modern military, with stealth bombers, cruise missiles and helicopter gunships.

I think we could defend ourselves against all likely threats with a large Territorial Force of light infantry, supported by a small Regular Army for training, development and peacekeeping/peacemaking/low scale warfighting (and warfighting is likely to become more probable over time).

The Navy is unable to fend off modern taskforces, but should still be able to participate in combined operations with other navies (especially Australia’s) if this is in the national interest. Capable patrol vessels are a necessity. Some decent armament on them will likely be necessary.

Not having combat aircraft isn’t such a worry to me, as I think that a generation from now, a squadron of Cessnas with rockets and machine guns could be a major force. Transport, fisheries protection and maritime patrol are the main tasks for the Air Force in my view.

I have a feeling we’re going to end up with something like this anyway. Unless we’re completely wrong about Peak Oil of course…….

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I haven’t heard the Greens say we should completely disarm and I do think the priorities are around the wrong way, much like the roading vs public transport funding debate where the amount of funding available and where it comes from grossly favours roading projects over PT at a time when a strategic view requires us to flip things the other way.

Likewise, for me the question is not whether we have a defence force or not, but what else we do that so greatly impacts the amount of strife in the world. By “we”, I don’t just mean NZ and we should resist buying into the US/Oz model as it is not about defence anymore, if it ever was. The US has nearly 800 military bases in foreign countries. These are not to defend the realm, but to ensure control of strategic assets.

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Well said Tane.

To sit there and say “oh well, its alright no one will want to invade us” is short sighted and naieve in the extreme, given how much the world will change in the next 20 or 30 years.

Multilateral defence agreements, modernising military equipment and increasing the pool of reservists would be a good start.

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Absolutely john-ston. What are they spending all that money on? This may well just reflect wage increases for the top brass and the higher price of fuel (higher operating costs), with no actual increase in capacity.

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Tane, those are great posts. It is good to see a leftie who isn’t fooled by the “let’s be nice and have a group hug” approach. You do need a “dirty big stick” sometimes, unfortunately. And in practice that stick must include a good working relationship at least with Australia, the USA, and the UK, because like it or not we can only afford a little stick ourselves. And if we are to expect them to defend us, we must be equipped to do our bit defending them should the need arise, we can’t do all we can to annoy Uncle Sam then expect him to jump to our aid when we get into difficulty.

If you want some good ideas on how NZ could really defend ourselves, check out The Strategist blog:
http://kotare.typepad.com/thestrategist/

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