Comments on: The Emissions Trading Scheme: time for your thoughts http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/ hopping along the corridors of power Sat, 10 Jan 2009 00:23:05 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: kahikatea http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54473 kahikatea Sun, 24 Aug 2008 05:45:53 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54473 Owen McShane Says: August 23rd, 2008 at 9:31 am > relax Toad, the latest and most reliable data shows no sign of sea levels rising around Kiribati. I wouldn't expect there to be yet. The only way you're going to get enough extra water into the sea quickly to raise the sea level a noticeable amount is by a massive speed-up in the flow or melting of glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland. That can only happen once the sea ice at the mouths of these glaciers is gone. Some of that ice has been breaking up, but the sea level rise doesn't start until the sea ice is gone, exposing the glacier mouths. We know that this massive speed-up does occur - it has already happened with a few glaciers on the antarctic peninsula - but that's not enough glaciers to make a difference. Of course what's happened now is more than a drop in the ocean - it's some massive icebergs in the ocean - but a massive iceberg falling into the world's oceans is still largely comparable to emptying a glass of water into a duckpond. Owen McShane Says:
August 23rd, 2008 at 9:31 am

> relax Toad, the latest and most reliable data shows no sign of sea levels rising around Kiribati.

I wouldn’t expect there to be yet. The only way you’re going to get enough extra water into the sea quickly to raise the sea level a noticeable amount is by a massive speed-up in the flow or melting of glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland. That can only happen once the sea ice at the mouths of these glaciers is gone. Some of that ice has been breaking up, but the sea level rise doesn’t start until the sea ice is gone, exposing the glacier mouths.

We know that this massive speed-up does occur - it has already happened with a few glaciers on the antarctic peninsula - but that’s not enough glaciers to make a difference. Of course what’s happened now is more than a drop in the ocean - it’s some massive icebergs in the ocean - but a massive iceberg falling into the world’s oceans is still largely comparable to emptying a glass of water into a duckpond.

]]> By: E-prophet http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54404 E-prophet Sat, 23 Aug 2008 20:34:40 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54404 "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the opposite direction." A.Einstein Regards the ETS (and other issues) there is an employment opportunity for one genius, or more. “Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius — and a lot of courage — to move in the opposite direction.” A.Einstein

Regards the ETS (and other issues) there is an employment opportunity for one genius, or more.

]]> By: Owen McShane http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54319 Owen McShane Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:31:34 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54319 I understand the Maori party is against it too. Otherwise it would fly through. relax Toad, the latest and most reliable data shows no sign of sea levels rising around Kiribati. I would post the data/graph but cannot do so on here. I understand the Maori party is against it too. Otherwise it would fly through.

relax Toad, the latest and most reliable data shows no sign of sea levels rising around Kiribati.
I would post the data/graph but cannot do so on here.

]]> By: phil u http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54316 phil u Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:19:39 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54316 "..(I haven’t fully crunched the numbers, but I think we can do 20% by 2020 without it being a problem).." really ..!..idiot/savant.. and that'll be 'enough'..y'reckon..? (go and stand in the corner with the other incrementalists/apologists..!.. i thought better of you..) phil(whoar.co.nz) “..(I haven’t fully crunched the numbers, but I think we can do 20% by 2020 without it being a problem)..”

really ..!..idiot/savant..

and that’ll be ‘enough’..y’reckon..?

(go and stand in the corner with the other incrementalists/apologists..!..

i thought better of you..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)

]]> By: Mr Dennis http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54314 Mr Dennis Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:11:08 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54314 Mark Hubbard: Pretty well every political party is supporting an ETS now, even National is promising to put one in within 9 months. Even if the Greens reject this, it will only delay rather than halt an ETS. The only way to actually stop an ETS is to put parties in parliament after the election that will ensure one does not go ahead. The only parties promising that are the Family Party primarily, and Act appears to be leaning in that direction too (but is still proposing a carbon tax). http://www.familyparty.org.nz/policy/environment Mark Hubbard:
Pretty well every political party is supporting an ETS now, even National is promising to put one in within 9 months. Even if the Greens reject this, it will only delay rather than halt an ETS.

The only way to actually stop an ETS is to put parties in parliament after the election that will ensure one does not go ahead. The only parties promising that are the Family Party primarily, and Act appears to be leaning in that direction too (but is still proposing a carbon tax).
http://www.familyparty.org.nz/policy/environment

]]> By: Owen McShane http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54242 Owen McShane Fri, 22 Aug 2008 04:10:42 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54242 I was not making a point about weather or climate. I was just pointing out that sapients assertion about the great Asimov computer was wrong. And I am sorry if you believe that climate modelling does not have to deal with deterministic chaos then you are misguided. After all chaos theory effectively destroyed the idea of economic modelling and yet the IPCC scenarios all have to model the world economy. IT requires a huge leap of faith to say "I know I cannot predict the weather more than one week ahead but I can predict what the climate and sea levels will be doing in ninety years time. Monkton was at Bali and he of course is an expert on modelling and developed some powerful economic models in his earlier life. He had just been talking to, and exchanging views with many of the modellers (because he was analysing the modelling methods they were using and he was shocked that some of the younger ones in particular had not read the Lorenz paper. You may think he was lying but I have no reason to believe so. It was a private conversation over a glass of malt. I was not making a point about weather or climate.
I was just pointing out that sapients assertion about the great Asimov computer was wrong.
And I am sorry if you believe that climate modelling does not have to deal with deterministic chaos then you are misguided.
After all chaos theory effectively destroyed the idea of economic modelling and yet the IPCC scenarios all have to model the world economy.
IT requires a huge leap of faith to say “I know I cannot predict the weather more than one week ahead but I can predict what the climate and sea levels will be doing in ninety years time.
Monkton was at Bali and he of course is an expert on modelling and developed some powerful economic models in his earlier life. He had just been talking to, and exchanging views with many of the modellers (because he was analysing the modelling methods they were using and he was shocked that some of the younger ones in particular had not read the Lorenz paper. You may think he was lying but I have no reason to believe so. It was a private conversation over a glass of malt.

]]> By: idiot/savant http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54219 idiot/savant Fri, 22 Aug 2008 00:17:56 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54219 <i>I’m not confident they can, actually, at least without a huge uproar. The problem is that an emissions trading scheme confers property rights, and it is very difficult politically for a subsequent Government to legislate to interfere with those property rights.</i> Sure, it confers property rights - but what's important to note is that those property rights have a limited lifespan, and will usually be purchased from the goverment at auction. The government can quite happily choose to sell fewer permits than it did in previous years - its basically a cabinet decision, requiring no additional legislation. Though policywise, its best to announce such changes well in advance, in order to get emitters to respond early. Having handed out so many free permits to polluters complicates this somewhat. But its not an overwhelming number, and is compatible with most short-term goals (I haven't fully crunched the numbers, but I think we can do 20% by 2020 without it being a problem). And there is a review clause which provides cover for a future policy change. The biggest effect of the grandparenting is distributional, effectively funnelling funds to the chosen polluting industries. Its unfair and inequitable, but it doesn't actually compromise the effectiveness of the scheme unless we're trying to set a target below the fre allocation. I’m not confident they can, actually, at least without a huge uproar. The problem is that an emissions trading scheme confers property rights, and it is very difficult politically for a subsequent Government to legislate to interfere with those property rights.

Sure, it confers property rights - but what’s important to note is that those property rights have a limited lifespan, and will usually be purchased from the goverment at auction. The government can quite happily choose to sell fewer permits than it did in previous years - its basically a cabinet decision, requiring no additional legislation. Though policywise, its best to announce such changes well in advance, in order to get emitters to respond early.

Having handed out so many free permits to polluters complicates this somewhat. But its not an overwhelming number, and is compatible with most short-term goals (I haven’t fully crunched the numbers, but I think we can do 20% by 2020 without it being a problem). And there is a review clause which provides cover for a future policy change. The biggest effect of the grandparenting is distributional, effectively funnelling funds to the chosen polluting industries. Its unfair and inequitable, but it doesn’t actually compromise the effectiveness of the scheme unless we’re trying to set a target below the fre allocation.

]]> By: greenfly http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54208 greenfly Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:53:37 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54208 sifting and weighing ...idiot/savant makes the best call. Whatever Bill English might say, disregard. sifting and weighing …idiot/savant makes the best call. Whatever Bill English might say, disregard.

]]> By: Bucolic Old Sir Henry http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54207 Bucolic Old Sir Henry Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:49:20 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54207 Owen, You are simply showing that you don't understand the difference between weather and climate modelling. Modelling weather is basically an "initial conditions" problem, where multiplying uncertainties make it impossible to be accurate over long periods. Climate modelling deals with "boundary conditions" like GHG forcings, and is concerned with developing the statistics of climate over decadal timescales. And I wouldn't take Monckton's word on what climate modellers have or haven't read. Why not talk to some real ones (we have them in NZ), rather than one of your wacky crank friends? Owen,

You are simply showing that you don’t understand the difference between weather and climate modelling. Modelling weather is basically an “initial conditions” problem, where multiplying uncertainties make it impossible to be accurate over long periods. Climate modelling deals with “boundary conditions” like GHG forcings, and is concerned with developing the statistics of climate over decadal timescales.

And I wouldn’t take Monckton’s word on what climate modellers have or haven’t read. Why not talk to some real ones (we have them in NZ), rather than one of your wacky crank friends?

]]> By: Mr Dennis http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54203 Mr Dennis Thu, 21 Aug 2008 22:30:42 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/the-emissions-trading-scheme-time-for-your-thoughts/#comment-54203 Great posts turnip and BP Toad: "Ah, the “adapt, because it is too late to mitigate� argument. I’d be interested to hear just how you propose we adapt, Turnip, apart from everyone who lives in coastal regions heading to the mountains, and all that entails. And what about the people of Kiribati - where have they got to go?" If global warming is correct, we'll probably have to adapt anyway. How will we do this if we've already blown our budget on a futile gesture? More here, no point in duplicating myself on the same blog: http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/focussing-on-what-matters/#comment-54201 Great posts turnip and BP

Toad:
“Ah, the “adapt, because it is too late to mitigateâ€? argument. I’d be interested to hear just how you propose we adapt, Turnip, apart from everyone who lives in coastal regions heading to the mountains, and all that entails. And what about the people of Kiribati - where have they got to go?”

If global warming is correct, we’ll probably have to adapt anyway. How will we do this if we’ve already blown our budget on a futile gesture?
More here, no point in duplicating myself on the same blog:
http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/08/21/focussing-on-what-matters/#commen t-54201

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