Study: As petrol prices rise, auto deaths fall
Today’s high gasoline prices could cut auto deaths by nearly a third as driving decreases, particularly among price-sensitive teenage drivers, the authors of a new study say. Professors Michael Morrisey of the University of Alabama and David Grabowski of Harvard Medical School found that for every 10% increase in gas prices there was a 2.3% decline in auto deaths. For drivers ages 15 to 17 the decline was 6% and for ages 18 to 21 it was 3.2%
That’s a pretty stunning correlation, and one that likely applies to the Ne Zealand context as well. The article in USA Today did have one caveat though:
I think there is some silver lining here in higher gas taxes in that we will see a public health gain,” Grabowski said. But he cautioned that their estimate of a decline of 1,000 deaths a month could be offset somewhat by the shift underway to smaller, lighter, more fuel-efficient cars and the increase in motorcycle and scooter driving.
It is interesting that the article focusses on deaths rather than injuries. I think the positive impact on public health savings would be far greater if one considered the avoided costs of healthcare and rehabilitation for those who survive rather than those who die in auto accidents. But then, it is the US, where all health is privatised and you’re completely on your own in that regard.
Personally, I will always prefer a chronically underfunded, groaning public health service to a hyper expensive, exclusive and private one.
July 17th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Does that mean poor people are worse drivers?
July 17th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Ahhh…so the drop in road deaths is of interest to you now is it?
If this concern is genuine then you should be 100% behind Transmission Gully.
July 17th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Studies have found more people in New Zealand die from the toxic fumes that cars emit than die in vehicle accidents. A reduction in the kilometres traveled will hopeful impact on this significantly.
July 17th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Hey frog- you left a couple minor errors in this one. It should be New Zealand, and focus
ses.July 17th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
But he cautioned that their estimate of a decline of 1,000 deaths a month could be offset somewhat by the shift underway to smaller, lighter, more fuel-efficient cars and the increase in motorcycle and scooter driving.
Which in turn could be offset by people being unable to drive these unsafe and rather thirsty horrors.
(It’s worth reading for Bryan’s tale… in June, after a couple of years of oil prices going through the roof, he decides to get an extra-sized SUV. One week later, he’s complaining about the cost of filling it up.)
(Also Colleen’s story. She had a Sherman tank derivative that cost US$160 to fill. Now she borrows her friend’s Land Cruiser. Quoth Colleen: “I don’t know if it gets better gas mileage, but I like her car because it costs $100 to fill it.â€? The frequency of refuelling isn’t a consideration, apparently.)
July 18th, 2008 at 3:21 am
Frog, It’s heartening to see that two professors have uncovered the same effect in the US stats that I identified in NZ stats. The NZ stats don’t show that precise per cent relationship but the overall effect is the same.
They are correct to add that caution. The road toll graph from the NZ transport strategy doc shows the effect quite clearly for both of the upward lurches prior to this year.
http://www.petroltax.org.nz/PDF/Pages%20from%20MOT13188-UNZTS-Doc-v6a. pdf
The NZ age stats can be disaggregated by travel mode. The four major petrol price shocks - 73, 79, 01, 06 - all resulted in passenger falling by twice the percentage of driver deaths. But for 15-19 year olds there were two modes of travel where deaths increased by more than 50% - cycling and motorcycling. In the first oil shock that actually resulted in an overall increase in deaths (comparing 71/72 with 74/75). The reason for not using 1973 is given in the MoTs study of the 50mph speed limit, which couldn’t identify a reason for the drop in the road toll.
http://www.petroltax.org.nz/PDF/50MPH.PDF
Compare these professor’s explanation of the drop in the road toll with Minister of Transport’s included in the transport strategy discussion docs:
“We are bringing down the road toll. Last year’s road toll of 391 was the lowest in 46 years thanks to our focus on key risks, enforcement, education and better road engineering.”
July 18th, 2008 at 3:29 am
“It is interesting that the article focusses on deaths rather than injuries.” Interesting only because all fatal crashes must be reported to the police but that is not the case for injury crashes. There is a standard definition of a “traffic fatality” used in all OECD countries. There is no common definition of serious injury. The USA has two crash databases, one for all reported crashes and another for fatal crashes. The latter has much more detail and reliability than the former so it is the one used for this type of study. The Uk is the only OECD country that routinely reports killed and seriously injured along with the fatal road toll.
July 18th, 2008 at 11:13 am
On a related note, from Time’s 10 Things You Can Like About $4 Gas:
About 2,220 [US] lives have already been saved over the past year because of higher gas prices and less pollution, according to an estimate calculated for TIME by J. Paul Leigh, a University of California at Davis health-economics professor who co-wrote a study on the topic in the March 2008 Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine. If prices remain high, we can expect some 2,000 people to avoid dying from pollution in the next 12 months.
July 21st, 2008 at 2:28 am
Here’s an interview with one of the study’s authors:
http://www.soph.uab.edu/pubs/gasincrease
July 22nd, 2008 at 4:37 am
The caveat is all too real. Every petro price shock in the past 40 years has doubled the number of teenage cyclists and motorcyclists killed on our roads. In the 70s that actually overwhelmed the reduction in teenage car occupant deaths. Fortunately today’s teenagers can afford cars instead of being restricted to motorbikes - easier credit, mcjobs, richer parents, JUCs, whatever the cause lets just be grateful that somethings caused the decline in motorcycle registrations in the 90s.