Roy Morgan poll
Last night’s Roy Morgan poll paints a more of the same picture; a twenty point gap between National and Labour, the Greens safely above the threshold but still with room to grow, NZ First close, and no other party really really making a significant party vote impact at the moment.
The interesting detail for me is the difference the Roy Morgan poll is telling about what is happening to the Green vote in Auckland, compared to the Herald’s poll story. The Herald has always recorded the Green vote as low in Auckland (which accorded with last election’s result). Roy Morgan has it relatively healthy at present, at 7 percent. My anecdotal sense from the successful work Green Party campaigners in Auckland have been doing is that the Roy Morgan poll may be closer than the Herald on this point, which could be significant for the Greens.
Also of interest is Therese Arseneau’s comment for TVNZ a couple of days ago about the accuracy or other wise of opinion polls (in relation to the Prime Minister’s rather wistful challenge of the veracity of the polls). I like Aresneau’s final aside:
[P]olls should be used sparingly. Elections are too often treated as horse races, and polls used by the impatient to predict the winner before the race is even run. The focus now should be on the campaign itself and on providing voters with the information they need to make an informed decision.
With up to 5 polls coming out every month at present the news coverage is far too much on the race rather than the reason for the race. This balance is likely to get worse as the election gets closer.
July 5th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Yeah, I’d like to see more coverage of the issues and less of the polls, especially as the margin of error on polls usually makes them useless for anything except getting a rough trend of how National and Labour are doing.
I wonder if they cover polls just to avoid hiring salient and balanced political reporters.
July 5th, 2008 at 9:42 am
Amongst the smoke and confusion people want common sense.
July 5th, 2008 at 11:41 am
To get issues we need an election date.
Instead of harassing the nats for policy the media need to be harassing Helen for the date.
Then harass everyone for policy.
July 5th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Indeed. National are insulting the public by hiding their policies, Labour are insulting the public by hiding the election date.
A pox on both their houses.
July 5th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Oh, and Frog, I hope you’re hopping about and telling everyone about the social policies the Greens have, and the achievements Sue B and others have had in the last few years. They’ll get the attention of those who don’t just vote for rivers and safe food (which we need to break beyond 7%).
Talk about warm houses and water heating bills - I’m sure there are a lot people shivering right now who would love to hear about insulation and lower electricity bills, and having these legislated on landlords (who have been pitiful in their uptake).
July 5th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Sue Bradford is abysmal as the housing spoke person, it’s just not her thing. Her solution to everything is more state houses.
July 5th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
jh,
Whats your solution? So far you’ve complained about the greed of private landlords and property developers and now about Sue Bradfords suggestion that it can be solved by State Housing… So whats the alternative? Who else has the capital require to invest in decent housing?
I like the look of this concept, but unfortunately as other social projects its chronically underfunded.
http://www.converge.org.nz/chaanz/index.html
July 5th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Solution; Zero population growth and a positive balance of payments.
July 6th, 2008 at 1:07 am
“Oh, and Frog, I hope you’re hopping about and telling everyone about the social policies the Greens have, and the achievements Sue B and others have had in the last few years. They’ll get the attention of those who don’t just vote for rivers and safe food (which we need to break beyond 7%).”
They will simply see the average voter going for the option which will avoid getting the Green Party anywhere near power. The average New Zealander didn’t want smacking made illegal, and the average New Zealander doesn’t want pot made legal either.
July 6th, 2008 at 6:17 am
john-ston - I hardly think a person with your biased view could come near deciphering what the ‘average’ NZ vote may think. May my God help me if you were even close to being correct!
July 6th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
“Solution; Zero population growth and a positive balance of payments.”
You’re funny, I like you.
Though it has left me wondering which of those two is *further* outside the govt’s control.
July 7th, 2008 at 12:32 am
“I hardly think a person with your biased view could come near deciphering what the ‘average’ NZ vote may think. May my God help me if you were even close to being correct!”
Why do you think Peter Dunne’s crowd did so well back in ‘02? It was all part of a move by voters to do what they could to keep the Greens out of the treasury benches.
I do think that you guys will probably benefit from the implosion of the Labour Party though; similar to how NZ First, ACT and United Future benefitted in 2002.