Budget choices

by frog

John Armstrong is calling Cullen’s budget in a few weeks a potential circuit breaker to restore Labour’s fortunes after a string of bad polls. I think Labour probably has three strategic choices if it is going to break any circuits:

  1. It can entrench its legacy with a ‘steady as she goes’ lead in to the election that takes the opportunity to bed down any important social programmes that it is worried National might try to cut. Labour clearly wants to campaign on its longstanding record and its history to contrast that to the unknown and apparently unknowable quantity that John Key and his team might bring to government. Such a budget would be an opportunity to highlight Labour’s past achievements and its longevity, while also investing in them some more so as to protect against their being cut in the future if the polls should continue as they are currently.
  2. It can ‘shoot for the moon’ with a spendarama budget designed to show that it still has exciting new ideas and a vision for New Zealand that extends beyond just managing the economy it has created. A vote-buying budget might take much of the last minute vote buying that occurred last election off the table this election and would freshen Labour’s image significantly. But whose votes would it attempt to buy and would it use tax cuts or social spending?
  3. Or it can take its last opportunity to do those things that people expect a traditional Labour government to do; things like ending child poverty, restoring fair living incomes to those on benefits and rebuilding our local community infrastructures. If it is facing potential obliteration in the next election it may well be considering whether its legacy is what it hoped it would be when it was first elected in 1999. Occasionally ageing governments faced with their mortality ‘find their mojo’ again by returning to their roots and making up for lost time.

frog says

Published in Campaign | Economy, Work, & Welfare by frog on Wed, April 30th, 2008   

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