Well here it is, as promised, the updated version of my chart from last November. I’ve said so much about all of this in other posts, so I’ll just recycle many of the excellent links that were put up by readers last November. Simon Tegg’s excellent in-depth look at MED’s assumptions. Plus MED’s original workshop and discussion documents relating to the same. As I said in my post on Saturday, I applaud rather than criticise the authors of the MED work for having the courage to include this ‘minority’ forecast at a time when peak oil was still being ridiculed. Which view would you consider ‘mainstream’ just five months later?
Remember that this chart is of monthly averages, so our recent spike to US$117 doesn’t show up on the graph. April’s monthly average is sitting at US$109.47 and will very likely eclipse US$110 if the price holds out this week.
So yes, Dr Cullen, green is still better than red, and your bean counters would do well to pay attention to the real trends.