With oil forecasts, green is still better than red
Well here it is, as promised, the updated version of my chart from last November. I’ve said so much about all of this in other posts, so I’ll just recycle many of the excellent links that were put up by readers last November. Simon Tegg’s excellent in-depth look at MED’s assumptions. Plus MED’s original workshop and discussion documents relating to the same. As I said in my post on Saturday, I applaud rather than criticise the authors of the MED work for having the courage to include this ‘minority’ forecast at a time when peak oil was still being ridiculed. Which view would you consider ‘mainstream’ just five months later?
Remember that this chart is of monthly averages, so our recent spike to US$117 doesn’t show up on the graph. April’s monthly average is sitting at US$109.47 and will very likely eclipse US$110 if the price holds out this week.
So yes, Dr Cullen, green is still better than red, and your bean counters would do well to pay attention to the real trends.
April 21st, 2008 at 4:19 pm
every day fwog, I go into the garage and look at the 350 chev,
sometimes i start her up just to hear the sound and the power,
what do you think i do with her fwog,
April 21st, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Looks scary that graph! And now let the US economy stabilise and bounce back a little. That graph will then go ballistic. We’ll have massive increases of NZ$ per barrel even if the US$ barrel price stays stable.
Maybe do a graph that includes the NZ$ xchange rate too.
@peterquixote: Pull out the MadMax tape….
April 21st, 2008 at 6:22 pm
peterquixote - convert her to run on pure ethanol and have a ball! I must admit, I occasionally miss the V8 of my youth. Now I don’t even own a car. I don’t miss the little boxes I drove for many years. I especially don’t miss the petrol stations anymore…
April 21st, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Oil running out as prime energy source
Apr 21, 2008 9:00 AM
Most people believe oil is running out and governments need to find another fuel, but Americans are alone in thinking their leaders are out of touch with reality on this issue, an international poll said.
On average, 70% of respondents in 15 countries and the Palestinian territories said they thought oil supplies had peaked. Only 22% of the nearly 15,000 respondents in nations ranging from China to Mexico believed enough new oil would be found to keep it a primary fuel source.
“What’s most striking is there’s such a widespread consensus around the world that oil is running out and governments need to make a real effort to find new sources of energy,” said Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org, a global research organization that conducted the poll.
Concerns over climate change, which is spurred by emissions from fossil fuels including oil, also were a factor among respondents, Kull said.
The current tightening of the oil market is not temporary but will continue and the price of oil will rise substantially, most respondents said.
“They think it’s just going to keep going higher and a fundamental adaptation is necessary,” Kull said in a telephone interview.
In the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer and among the biggest emitters of climate-warming pollution from fossil fuel use, 76% of respondents said oil is running out, but most believed the US government mistakenly assumes there would be enough to keep oil a main source of fuel.
US government ‘not facing reality’
“Americans perceive that the government is not facing reality,” Kull said.
http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/411366/1729241
It shows Joe Public have more common sence than our economist wonks.
April 21st, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Erosion of Support for Free Market System: Global Poll
Supporters of Free Market Look for Strong Government Regulation
Free_Markets_April08_img.jpgMajorities in most countries continue to support the free market system, but over the last two years support has eroded in 10 of 18 countries regularly polled by GlobeScan. In several countries this drop in support has been quite sharp.
http://worldpublicopinion.org/
April 21st, 2008 at 6:28 pm
olivernz - I do have some data on US/NZ $/barrel. I’ll see what I can knock up. It won’t be quick though.
April 21st, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Someone needs to take a peak (excuse the pun) under Colorado. It may surprise you what can be found down there
April 21st, 2008 at 7:12 pm
The Illusive Bonanza: Oil Shale in Colorado
by James R. Udall, Steven B Andrews
“Pulling the Sword from the Stone�
A History of Hope
Buried beneath the ground, in Colorado and Utah, are a trillion tons of oil shale. Throughout the 20th century, men have tried and tried again to unlock the energy contained in these rocks. To date, all efforts have failed. But every twenty or thirty years, when energy prices spike, a new attempt is mounted. The persistence is understandable: whoever unlocks this resource would capture a trillion dollar prize. But oil shale’s track record is not encouraging. The rocks are stubborn, an illusive bonanza, promising much, delivering little. Despite a century of trying and $10 billion in investment, oil shale currently provides an infinitesimal 0.0001 (or one ten-thousandth) of world energy. This paper explains why oil shale is so difficult to unlock, and why the “rock that burns� may never provide more than one percent of U.S. energy.
http://www.energybulletin.net/11707.html
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:21 pm
@frog:
Thanks! Tht would be great. What would make it interesting is to take an educated guess into the future with changeing US/NZ$ exchange rate.
April 23rd, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Redbaiter:
“Cut taxes on petrol entirely. Cut taxes on the petroleum industry. Free up the exploration industry. These are the solutions a National Party member should be advocating.”
[From Farrar]