by frog
That’s the title of an interesting article over at CarbonPositive. Prices are rising as news of a modest increase in the EU’s emissions in 2007, (just 1%), bump up against the declining cap on emissions for 2008.
The price of the most-traded carbon contract, for forward delivery of EUAs in December 2008, closed at €23.82 on the European Climate Exchange on Monday April 7. This is up €3.15 from a low point on March 4 and continues a recovery after a downturn to below €19 early in the year driven by global financial market instability. EUA contracts further forward have risen around €2, Dec 09s closing at €24.48, Dec 10s at €25.15 and Dec 12s at €26.85
Forecasts for price levels in coming years of €30 to €35 have certainly contributed to bullish trade of late.
That forward Euro 23.82 price at current exchange rates is a whopping NZD 47.50 !! It seems that $50 per tonne carbon prices may come sooner than Treasury wants to admit. They still calculate on a $15 per tonne basis while most punters have been doing their analysis base on a $25 per tonne price. Fun times lie ahead for those willing to play in our budding carbon market! I suspect some bright sparks are about to make a packet of cash in the coming 18 months.
This will no doubt put pressure on the Select Committee hearing submissions to water down the bill. I reckon it would be a waste of time if the world’s marginal carbon price got legislated out of the NZ ETS Bill. Well, we called for a carbon tax to give business certainty, but they wouldn’t have a bar of it and insisted on a cap and trade. Now they are going to have to dig deep and pay the piper for their carbon loving ways. (This means we will have to dig deeper too.)
Published in Campaign | Economy, Work, & Welfare | Environment & Resource Management | Parliament by frog on Sat, April 12th, 2008
Tags: Carbon, ETS, EUA, Frog, frogblog, green, new zealand, NZ, party, select committee, trading
on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
fwog,
acknowledged leader Jeanette say that carbon traded is just another western game, and sad, yet you intellectualise here, and you need to get away from the computer mebe come with me to arizona have a good time, look at the world from a new perspective,
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peterquixote – thanks for the offer. I’ve never been to Arizona and it would indeed give me a different perspective on the world. I would have to agree that carbon traded for trading’s sake is a waste of time, but how else would you introduce a price on carbon, given our culture’s obsession with markets? We suggested a tax but the business lobby didn’t like that, at least while we were suggesting it!
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Given that the people making the money are probably going to be well off and the people digging deeper (or stopping digging cause there resources are exhausted, to push it further) I think is a strong argument for taking another approach. I am all to aware of the pressing need for strong coherent action (yesterday) on emissions reduction. I do not think that giving more to those who have more by taking from those that have less is a good way to continue New Zealand’s egalitarian tradition.
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Word from my friend in Treasury is that apparently the constraints on the EU carbon scheme push up the price a bit more than we should see here, although they did say that this was very interesting.
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# peterquixote Says:
April 12th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
fwog,
acknowledged leader Jeanette say that carbon traded is just another western game, and sad, yet you intellectualise here, and you need to get away from the computer mebe come with me to arizona have a good time, look at the world from a new perspective,
…..
Was it your sinuses?
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jh them doctor said yous got shaggers back my friend,
, go to the warm and find nice girl mn thing in arizona,
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there another thing with that doctor he said, look yous got to stop dreaming about heather like this, no wonder them Act people sick of you,
you only got 4 minutes here, this is a bloody medical practice ,we don’t have time for this knicker stories what you dream up, look i don’t charge you this time
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