Comments on: And finally the inevitable US$100 a barrel http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/ hopping along the corridors of power Fri, 09 Jan 2009 03:11:31 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Kevyn http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36490 Kevyn Fri, 18 Jan 2008 12:01:43 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36490 bj, perhaps I was too gobsmacked by his interview performance. Maybe now that he doesn't have the same imperative to keep the newsmedia sweet he isn't going to go through the motions of taking silly questions seriously. He certainly didn't in the ABC interview. When was the last time you heard a politician give a blunt, straight answer in an interview. Far from taking time to think of an answer that would keep the greatest number of voters happy he basicly just laughs at the suggestion that the US President can reduce gas prices by taking a hard line with the Saudis. bj, perhaps I was too gobsmacked by his interview performance. Maybe now that he doesn’t have the same imperative to keep the newsmedia sweet he isn’t going to go through the motions of taking silly questions seriously. He certainly didn’t in the ABC interview. When was the last time you heard a politician give a blunt, straight answer in an interview. Far from taking time to think of an answer that would keep the greatest number of voters happy he basicly just laughs at the suggestion that the US President can reduce gas prices by taking a hard line with the Saudis.

]]> By: frog http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36452 frog Thu, 17 Jan 2008 22:06:20 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36452 Kevyn - I believe that George has always been an oil insider and has always been fully aware of the threat to the US of peak oil, having grown up through the years of the US peak in the '70s. I am sure his understanding of it is what underpins his absolute conviction that occupying Iraq is in the US interest, whatever his rhetoric. The fact that I disagree with him is not relevant. I also concur with your earlier comment that the most relevant thing will be if January's average price per barrel remains high. I monitor this stuff closely, and my current trend line doesn't put oil at $100 per barrel until August this year. I was just sitting down to write a post about all the peak oil quotes from 2007, in part fed from the TOD blog. Good reading that! Kevyn - I believe that George has always been an oil insider and has always been fully aware of the threat to the US of peak oil, having grown up through the years of the US peak in the ’70s. I am sure his understanding of it is what underpins his absolute conviction that occupying Iraq is in the US interest, whatever his rhetoric. The fact that I disagree with him is not relevant. I also concur with your earlier comment that the most relevant thing will be if January’s average price per barrel remains high. I monitor this stuff closely, and my current trend line doesn’t put oil at $100 per barrel until August this year.

I was just sitting down to write a post about all the peak oil quotes from 2007, in part fed from the TOD blog. Good reading that!

]]> By: bjchip http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36450 bjchip Thu, 17 Jan 2008 21:52:25 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36450 As little as I may like Bush, there has never been any point I can recall in which he denied the existence of peak-oil as a problem. He doesn't talk much about it, but I don't think he ever said it wasn't real. Prove me wrong? The issue with him is what Cheney's plan for dealing with it actually is. respectfully BJ As little as I may like Bush, there has never been any point I can recall in which he denied the existence of peak-oil as a problem. He doesn’t talk much about it, but I don’t think he ever said it wasn’t real.

Prove me wrong?

The issue with him is what Cheney’s plan for dealing with it actually is.

respectfully
BJ

]]> By: Kevyn http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36445 Kevyn Thu, 17 Jan 2008 13:28:53 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36445 Has George W. has a road to Damascus awakening and converted to Peak Oil? "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do." The full quote and link to the ABC Bush interview is at The Oil Drum http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3514#more Has George W. has a road to Damascus awakening and converted to Peak Oil?

“If they don’t have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do.”

The full quote and link to the ABC Bush interview is at The Oil Drum
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3514#more

]]> By: jh http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36108 jh Fri, 11 Jan 2008 17:00:03 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36108 "Wood is more precious than gold The price of gold is going crazy as investors look for a shelter from a dipsy-doodling stock market. It reminds me of one of my grandfather’s stories. During the bad financial times of the early 1920s in Germany, the peasants (ancestors of ours) traded their potatoes for gems that the rich people were forced to pay to get something to eat." http://www.energybulletin.net/39047.html “Wood is more precious than gold

The price of gold is going crazy as investors look for a shelter from a dipsy-doodling stock market.

It reminds me of one of my grandfather’s stories. During the bad financial times of the early 1920s in Germany, the peasants (ancestors of ours) traded their potatoes for gems that the rich people were forced to pay to get something to eat.”
http://www.energybulletin.net/39047.html

]]> By: Kevyn http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36074 Kevyn Thu, 10 Jan 2008 23:46:41 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36074 Normally at this time of year the price of oil collapses from an early case of spring fever. Speculators get cold feet when guessing the price for oil being delivered at the tail end of the winter heating season. They don't get bullish again until the summer driving season is nigh. A breif peak at $100 is insignificant compared with the price of crude not falling below $60 by the end of this month. Normally at this time of year the price of oil collapses from an early case of spring fever. Speculators get cold feet when guessing the price for oil being delivered at the tail end of the winter heating season. They don’t get bullish again until the summer driving season is nigh.

A breif peak at $100 is insignificant compared with the price of crude not falling below $60 by the end of this month.

]]> By: Trevor29 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36060 Trevor29 Thu, 10 Jan 2008 19:44:25 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36060 It was reported on the news this morning that the price had slipped to under $US95 per barrel... Trevor. It was reported on the news this morning that the price had slipped to under $US95 per barrel…

Trevor.

]]> By: jh http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36059 jh Thu, 10 Jan 2008 18:50:35 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36059 Another Nail in the Coffin of the Case Against Peak Oil By Matthew R. Simmons The best of the world’s “raw numbers� on global crude oil production still comes from the U.S. DOE/EIA. Eighteen months ago, I began looking closely at the EIA’s global crude oil and condensate production report summarized in the EIA’s Monthly Energy Report (Table 11.1b) as it showed a peak in crude oil production in 2005. For almost a year, minor adjustments to the 2005 data were made. Over time, however, the facts point to the glaring and inconvenient reality that the May 3 2005 crude production represented an all-time high, even though it barely exceeded 74 million barrels a day – 74,298,000/day according to the EIA. April, May and December 2005 were the first three months in the 150-year history of oil when the world ever produced this much oil. In July 2006, global crude once more inched above the 74 million barrel a day high-water mark. No other monthly report before or since shows oil produced at or above the 74 million barrel per day mark. As months passed, the EIA revisions ended through 2006 data. <b>As we near the end of 2007, May 2005 is still the magical “moment in time� when global crude oil peaked at 74.3 million barrels a day. Some miracle series of new oil fields could suddenly be found and quickly brought on to production, but the more time that passes, the less likely this is</b>. http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another%20Nail%20in%20the%20Coffin.pdf Another Nail in the Coffin of the Case Against Peak Oil
By
Matthew R. Simmons

The best of the world’s “raw numbers� on global crude oil production still comes
from the U.S. DOE/EIA. Eighteen months ago, I began looking closely at the EIA’s
global crude oil and condensate production report summarized in the EIA’s
Monthly Energy Report (Table 11.1b) as it showed a peak in crude oil production in
2005. For almost a year, minor adjustments to the 2005 data were made. Over
time, however, the facts point to the glaring and inconvenient reality that the May
3
2005 crude production represented an all-time high, even though it barely
exceeded 74 million barrels a day – 74,298,000/day according to the EIA. April,
May and December 2005 were the first three months in the 150-year history of oil
when the world ever produced this much oil. In July 2006, global crude once more
inched above the 74 million barrel a day high-water mark. No other monthly report
before or since shows oil produced at or above the 74 million barrel per day mark.
As months passed, the EIA revisions ended through 2006 data. As we near the end of 2007, May 2005 is still the magical “moment in time� when global crude oil peaked at 74.3 million barrels a day. Some miracle series of new oil fields could suddenly be found and quickly brought on to production, but the more time that passes, the less likely this is.

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Another%20Nail%20in%20the%20Coffin .pdf

]]> By: Trevor29 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36021 Trevor29 Wed, 09 Jan 2008 09:06:45 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-36021 I think I heard Jim Anderton on the radio saying that the government was doing something about this - they were investing in bio-diesel research. The amount that they are putting in is probably less than the extra cost of even one day's oil imports at the higher prices. If they were serious, they would increase the amount spend on making New Zealand energy-sufficient or even a net exporter of energy. (We already export energy in the form of Aluminium.) See http://www.awatea.org.nz for some ideas. Trevor. I think I heard Jim Anderton on the radio saying that the government was doing something about this - they were investing in bio-diesel research.

The amount that they are putting in is probably less than the extra cost of even one day’s oil imports at the higher prices.

If they were serious, they would increase the amount spend on making New Zealand energy-sufficient or even a net exporter of energy. (We already export energy in the form of Aluminium.)

See http://www.awatea.org.nz for some ideas.

Trevor.

]]> By: samiuela http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-35969 samiuela Mon, 07 Jan 2008 09:50:36 +0000 http://blog.greens.org.nz/2008/01/03/and-finally-the-inevitable-us100-a-barrel/#comment-35969 JH: The end of your quote says: "n a high-growth scenario, oil import prices will rise to $150 a barrel by 2030 in nominal terms, or $87 a barrel in inflation-adjusted 2006-dollar terms, the IEA said in its Nov. 7 World Energy Outlook Report. " In other words, the IEA is predicting a lower cost per barrel in 2030 than today (after adjustment for inflation). Even if the $150 per barrel was after the inflation adjustment, do you really think that this is likely, especially in a "high growth scenario"? The prediction seems overly optimistic to me. JH:

The end of your quote says:

“n a high-growth scenario, oil import prices will rise to $150 a barrel by 2030 in nominal terms, or $87 a barrel in inflation-adjusted 2006-dollar terms, the IEA said in its Nov. 7 World Energy Outlook Report. ”

In other words, the IEA is predicting a lower cost per barrel in 2030 than today (after adjustment for inflation). Even if the $150 per barrel was after the inflation adjustment, do you really think that this is likely, especially in a “high growth scenario”? The prediction seems overly optimistic to me.

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