“Late in November, all Pacific commands, including both the Navy and Army in Hawaii, were separately and explicitly warned war with Japan was expected in the very near future, probably with attacks in the Far East: the Philippines, IndoChina, Thailand, or Russia. The warnings were not specific to any area, noting only war with Japan was expected in the immediate short term and all commands should act accordingly. Had any of these warnings produced an active alert status in Hawaii, the attack might have been resisted more effectively, and perhaps resulted in less death and damage. …….”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

Thank you for your email of 24 July 2007 regarding the Medium Term Oil Market Report of
the International Energy Agency (IEA).
I would like to assure you that the Government takes the issue of oil security seriously and
consequently is committed to preparing for a sustainable future now, to lessen our
dependence on imported oil.
In its report the IEA indicates that it does not forecast oil prices, and notes that one of the
components of the current high oil prices is tightness in the refining sector. The report states
that the issue is not one of reserves but of investment in production capacity (i.e. it is not
about the need for new discoveries). Rather, the report should be considered as a wake up
call saying that things will not get any better without more investment in upstream supply
capacity and more rapid progress on energy efficiency.
Also, as markets will respond to forecast supply constraints this report will encourage more
oil exploration and production, and will provide further incentives to find alternatives to fossil
fuels. You may be aware that the Government recently announced a major programme of
exploration in the Great South Basin, and the Tui and Maari oil fields are now coming on
stream.
There are a number of initiatives in place designed to move New Zealand towards a more
sustainable energy future with a reduced reliance on non-renewable fuels. You may be
aware that the Government is currently developing a New Zealand Energy Strategy (NZES)
that will explore the choices and policy options available to New Zealand in order to prepare
for a transition to alternative sources of oil and energy. It will consider the longer term
security issues posed by dramatic price increases, constraints on fuel supplies and the future
impacts of climate change.
The NZES builds on the sustainable development energy goals developed by the
Government in 2004 after wide consultation with stakeholders. It therefore takes as its starting point the thinking that has already been done on the key challenges for New
Zealand’s energy future.
The New Zealand Transport Strategy sets out a direction for New Zealand’s transport
system. Its objectives for environmental sustainability include reducing fuel consumption and
increasing the use of low energy transport options, this strategy can be viewed at
http://www.beehive.govt.nz/nzts/.
I am aware that work is underway within the wider government transport sector to look at
ways to better integrate our land-use and transport planning which could help to reduce the
use of road transport and hence fuel. This work was flagged in the Transport Sector
Strategic Directions document that I released when Minister of Transport, in December 2005.
There is also some work that has started to look at longer-term issues that might impact on
transport, which, no doubt, will need to consider the questions of fuel availability and pricing.
The Government has announced a preferred policy for encouraging the uptake of biofuels
through the introduction of mandatory sales targets. Work on the design and implementation
of this approach is currently underway. Voluntary standards for bio-diesel have already been
developed. More information on biofuels can be found at http://www.eeca.govt.nz/renewable-
energv/biofuels/ and httpJ//www.transport.govt.nz/biofuels-440.
In the Speech from the Throne on 8 November 2005, and through the Green Party Co-
operation agreement, the Government committed to take a more aggressive approach with
respect to energy efficiency and renewable energy. This includes increased support for solar
water heating, improved building standards, and other mechanisms to achieve a sustainable
path forward. These measures will be implemented over the term of this Government.
The Government is already addressing energy efficiency and conservation in New Zealand in
a number of ways. A significant recent development is the review of the New Zealand Energy
Efficiency and Conservation Strategy (NZEECS). This review is a timely opportunity for the
Government to implement new policies to move New Zealand towards a more sustainable
energy future with reduced reliance on non-renewable fuels. The Energy Efficiency and
Conservation Authority (EECA) is responsible for implementing the Government’s objectives
relating to energy efficiency and renewables. Further information on the process and
framework for developing a replacement NZEECS can be found at
http://www.eeca.govt.nz.Together with the NZES, the NZEECS will form a critical part of the
climate change work. Together they make up the climate change.
Thank you for your correspondence.
Yours sincerely

Hon David Parker
Minister of Energy

I dont think I made the point very clearly, with infil or high density developments in existing suburbs the infastructure to handle the sewerage, water, roads,etc. is already established and may not be able to cope with the increased demands placed upon it. While in new suburbs this infastructure will be newly installed and simply joined up to main feeders.

It is not the main feeders I’m concerned about (although raw sewarage overflows on North SHore beaches is common during heavy rain periods), more the last mile into infil suburbs.

Another issue with infil housing that the councils have to consider is stormwater runoff. One of my rental properies has enough room for another dwelling but I cant get council approval because the back section is actually designated as a storm water run off from the neighbouring higher placed properties. This then flows into the local creek and into the Manukau.

So that is yet another issue to be confronted.

While infil and high density housing looks pretty good on paper and in theory, there are other considerations that councils have to take into account.

The extrapolated crude oil production in 2012 is the same as the actual production exactly half a century earlier (1962).

Two aspects of the roading network should set your mind somewhat at rest on the concerns you raised:
1) generally a traffic lane will become congested when carrying more than 2,000 cars an hour.
2) the road network has three types of road: local, arterial and feeders (or collector/distributor) which connect local with arterial.

Typically a local road will have a peak load of a few tens of cars per hour, feeders can be as high as a few hundreds. Hence the only real cause for concern is the impact on arterials. This is different from the impact of ex-urban traffic only in the precise spatial distribution of new traffic and that the increased load from infill occurs on a smaller portion of the artery.

In the case of water, wastewater and stormwater the impact on mains and treatment plants will be similar irrespective of whether population growth is accommodated with infill or exurban developments.

The situation is likely to be different for cable infrastucture where the wires used in the local lines will have been more closely spec’d to demand than is possible with roads or pipes.

Public transport reveals the major advantage of accommodating increased population with infill rather than exurban developments. The extra population is accommodated within the existing route length giving more paying customers per hour of driver’s wages, litre of diesel and km of RUCs. Exurban developments require increasing all of these to service the growing population.

Here is a real short explanation:
poly = many
nomial = numbers
trend = long-term movement (in the numbers)

A slightly longer one:
“A mathematical expression of one or more algebraic terms each of which consists of a constant multiplied by one or more variables raised to a nonnegative integral power (as a + bx + cx2).

A polynomial curve can be created through the entire known data or just near the end. The resulting curve can then be extended beyond the end of the known data. Polynomial extrapolation is typically done by means of Lagrange interpolation or using Newton’s method of finite differences to create a Newton series that fits the data. The resulting polynomial may be used to extrapolate the data.”

Now before you can permit more infill housing you need to ensure that the water in&out, electricity, roading, etc. infastructure can handle the doubling of people living and working closer to home.

PRICE TRENDS OVER A COMPLETE HUBBERT CYCLE: THE CASE OF
THE AMERICAN WHALING INDUSTRY IN 19th CENTURY. by Ugo Bardi from the Dipartimento di Chimica - Università di Firenze.

http://www.oilcrisis.com/history/whaleOil20040913.pdf

On the basis that a picture is worth a thousand words here is the price and production data from the report in a line graph titled U.S. Whale Oil 1804-1876 Versus World Crude Oil 1940-2007:
http://www.petroltax.org.nz/images/WhalePeakOil.jpg

To the best of my knowledge the continuation of the polynomial trend line isn’t actually a prediction but, just in case it is, here is the frightening big picture of the future:
http://www.petroltax.org.nz/images/WhalePeakOil.jpg