“Irony” and “viable”
Some curious poll results of sorts have popped up in the last 24 hours.
Molesworth and Featherston’s rolling poll of polls (sub only) hasn’t got any new input since last week, but they have decided to calculate seats this time:
We could not resist the delicious irony of what they show - that a Labour - Green Government is the only viable one and that New Zealand First is in deep do do.
Labour 41.58% - 53 seats
National 39.65% - 51 seats
Green 7.01% - 9 seats
NZ First 4.68% - 0 seats
Maori 2.47% - 4 seats
United Future 1.89% - 2 seats
Act 1.18% - 1 seat
Progressives 0.98% - 1 seat
Meanwhile, Australian pollster Roy Morgan has this result:
In late-November, with a small increase in Consumer Confidence, support for the NZ Labour Party was 39%, up 1.5% since mid-November but 2.1% below the Labour result at the September 2005 General Election. Support for the National Party was 40.5% (up 0.5%) and 1.4% above the National result at the General Election the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Among the other minor parties, support for Jim Anderton’s Progressive Party was 1% (up 0.5%), the Green Party 8.5% (up 1.5%), New Zealand First 5.5% (down 1.5%), United Future New Zealand 2% (down 1%), the Maori Party 1% (down 1%), ACT New Zealand 1.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties 1% (unchanged).
And while we’re playing with numbers, here’s what Trans Tasman had to say about the Greens in their annual MP rankings (offline).
SUE BRADFORD - Would be deputy leader if she wasn’t a woman. Must raise her game in the House, being absorbed in committees isn’t what the Greens need now, although she performs well there. RANKING THIS YEAR - 4 (LAST YEAR - 3)
ROD DONALD (Deceased) - Tragic death struck at the heart of his party. Designed and ran the campaign, they can’t replace him. 6.5 (5.5)
JEANETTE FITZSIMONS - Carries a huge burden now. Handled herself and the party well after Donald’s death, pressure could tell in the coming months. 6 (5.5)
SUE KEDGLEY - Putting a scatterbrain in charge of the health committee was a high-risk move. No doubt about her enthusiasm, just about where it’s aimed. Which can be anywhere. 3 (3.5)
KEITH LOCKE - Wildly left-wing foreign policy agenda rules him out as co-leader. Still looking for spies under the bed. Gets an extra half point for doing the Epsom walk painted green. 3 (2.5)
NANDOR TANCZOS - Sells the message to young voters, total turn off for others. Getting him back is a mixed blessing. 2.5 (3)
METIRIA TUREI - Clever, and gives depth to the Greens - they need it with Rod Donald gone. 5 (3.5)
December 1st, 2005 at 6:07 pm
wot..?..no russel norman….?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
December 1st, 2005 at 8:30 pm
Damn, if only we did have a Labour-Green government like that first poll shows! Bloody Winston.
December 1st, 2005 at 9:24 pm
no..greenboy…it’s not bloody winston..he just took what was offered up on a plate..and why wouldn’t he..?
try bloody aotearoa legalise cannabis party…do the math..5,400 votes….nandor missed by 1240…
they just pissed those votes up against the wall..because the greens weren’t staunch enough on full legalisation…..(that’s how the leadership sold it to the mug punters who voted for them)…..of course for him it’s more a matter of the more votes for his pressure-group..the more govt funding he gets for the next election..the equation is as simple as that..eh..?
and before the next election i intend to make it as clear as possible to those 5,400 alcp voters the reality of the situation..and (hopefully) the benefits of voting for the only party in government that actually supports their cause…go figure….(as was pointed out to me..the alcp vote makes a strong case for dope being just that…..eh..?)
and given the math of the election result..you couldn’t really blame clark for being somewhat chary of relying for the survival of her government on the continued goodwill of harawira the younger….. would you..?
no..it’s aotearoa legalise cannabis party..if it’s anyone…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
December 1st, 2005 at 11:14 pm
It’s what many of us voted for, myself included. But on the day it went a different way. That’s the poll that counts.
Now it’s down to Winston to sink or swim. I think he’ll bob along - he’s no Thorpedo, but he can doggie paddle, and even learn to breast stroke. Seems at the moment he’s under so much pressure from the Nats he’ll hardly be wanting to be thorn in the Green’s side. It’s Dunne who likely to be the prick.
Greens will be fine. The pressure that can be brought to bear on the government is still right there. You can vote against, or even no confidence. Then we’re only a few NZF (or even Labour) defectors away from governmental collapse. Labour will toe the line, within limits.
So long as everyone gets their little piece of action, Greens included, things will dribble along, just not at quite such a pace. The ‘deal’ done with Winston is clearly only a part of the story, I’m sure there’s plenty of inside deals going on and they’re probably the ones that are really influential. Everyone knows Greens are more closely aligned with Labour than any of the other parties, except perhaps UF (I really can’t read Dunne - I think he’s just a cheap opportunist with a few staid principles that I unfortunately disagree with).
National will continue along their only idea, which is to attack character within the coalition. Peters is looking vulnerable to them, but he can also bite back so I’m not expecting an easy fight there. But they’ll turn on whoever they can, DBP, Clark, whoever. They’re running a long game of wearing NZ out with constant nagging. Mud sticks.
But it doesn’t make them any more charismatic or show they’ve got any better ideas. The only one they stick with is tax cuts. Until Brash goes, if he goes, I don’t expect that to change. Really their only chance is an economic collapse here. Who really knows if that will happen - we’ve showed remarkable resistance to the collapse of the US dollar and rising oil prices. Can we keep it up?
If there is a collapse National will claim they had knowledge of it and the only plan. Whether that is really true is unknowable - my gut instinct is their policies would only bring the collapse on faster, since cutting tax means gutting the government - firing thousands of people, cutting thousands of people’s dole, pensions and disability allowances, reducing the number of teachers, police, etc. All of that would be less dollars being churned around, a rapid flop in consumer confidence, and hard times all round, except for exporters, who would benefit from a collapsing NZ dollar. The social problems would be enormous - unemployment, crime, poverty, despair. But the rich would be better off.
That is what I was voting against. It’s sad that it wasn’t something more positive, like a progressive agenda, or more accountable government. But we’re right on the brink of disaster, in my opinion. Too much consumer debt during times of extreme inflation, could lead to a collapse all by itself. Only strong government will get us through, and I mean strong active government, not strong in hurting us ‘for our own good’, by sitting back and letting the market do it. The market will turn us around and bend us over.
I think we can ride out these bad times. They don’t really feel that bad, and that’s what disturbs me the most. It feels like the deep breath before the plunge. Maybe I’m just being silly, and we can just work our way out of this precarious position of debt and inflation. Rising interest rates may push spending down and encourage more saving, less debt. But less spending is a problem, since that drives the economy. I don’t know the answers, but I have a sinking feeling. For me personally, the only answer is to work harder.
December 1st, 2005 at 11:43 pm
Ben: have you been on the piss? Still it was an interesting meandering reflection
December 1st, 2005 at 11:54 pm
Actually I don’t drink piss unless forced by circumstances. Are you seeking a reason for my melancholia? Actually it’s just because I watched a depressing movie before.
Sorry for meandering, glad someone found it interesting. I’m actually just doing a mammoth ’sign off for a week’ postingz, because I’ve wasted far too much of my life on forumz. It’s an addiction, and it can be bad for you if you let it. So see ya in a week. Moderation in all things, except piss, where I advise abstinence.
December 2nd, 2005 at 8:30 am
Ben is reading the global economy… not the NZ economy
Never piss on an electric fence.
respectfully
BJ
December 2nd, 2005 at 7:08 pm
Sue Kedgely “a scatterbrain”? I don’t think so.
He got it right about Metiria
December 5th, 2005 at 10:11 am
with you there, eredwen,
shows perhaps a bias towards certain kinds of thinking about the marketing of ideas; the comment about Keith Locke, in conjunction with that about Sue K, suggests possibly an investment in pharmaceutical MNC’s? Obviously biased against those who oppose monolithic control of markets and medicines!!
aren’t the media going to stew themselves into a frenzy until the AGM next June