What the folx think on The Deal
One News last night ran a poll on the new Government:
Do you approve of Winston Peters’ appointment as Foreign Affairs Minister?
49% - Disapprove
33% - Approve
16% - No opinionShould Labour have been more loyal to the Greens or were the Greens victim of the election result?
60% - Greens are victim of the election result
32% - Labour should have been more loyal to the GreensDo you understand the Government’s support arrangement?
55% - Some understanding
45% - Little or no understandingDo you approve of the Government’s support arrangements?
40% - Approve
38% - Disapprove
19% - No opinionWill this Government last three years?
52% - Yes
44% - No
At the risk of being accused of being perpetually positive, those numbers are surely a cause for some optimism that the Greens’ long-term credibility has been bolstered by Jeanette and Rod’s integrity through all of this.
Here’s some more evidence. On Saturday Bay of Plenty Times editor (and Winston’s local nemesis) Craig Nicholson wrote:
We’ve had that most Christian of men, Peter Dunne, smugly showing compassion for the Greens after they were unceremoniously ignored in the new Government’s makeup.He said he was “pleased” the Greens were not in Government, adding: “I do feel sorry for them in the situation that they’re in.”
His insincerity was almost literally dripping from his lips. It seems to me the only party in the centre of all this to emerge with its mana intact was the Greens.
They expected and seemed to have earned the right to be part of the next Government but were denied by their political enemies - United Future and New Zealand First.
But, despite having been left with a gaping stab wound in their backs, co-leaders Jeanette Fitzsimons and Rod Donald maintained a dignified attitude.
As I’ve said before, two steps forwards, one step back.
October 25th, 2005 at 1:33 pm
Dunne and Peters hate the Greens because it is politically correct within their support groups to hate the Greens. It is their constituencies that remain ignorant, biased and clueless. I reckon that Peters would come around in a heartbeat, he’s got few non-negotiable principles (that is, he is a real politician) and a decent head on his shoulders. Dunne might not… in his case it is possible that the mind rot has set in from the top rather than from the constituency, and that his followers are in fact simply following. This being a variant of religious response, blindly following some clueless prophet… well suited to people who can also swallow the E.B. propaganda whole.
The key of course, is educating people. The messages we put out have to be readable by people who recoil from big changes, who dislike surprises, but who believe in the environment being kept clean and green. The ones who don’t care about the environment aren’t reachable by any green message at all, but their numbers aren’t significant either.
Most of these people would be completely shocked to learn that “NZ made” is a Green priority. They probably would be astounded to learn that we don’t advocate tearing up the existing roads. The misinformation and disinformation has to be countered and we have a couple of years to do this.
Meanwhile we should keep our eyes open for opportunities to make Dunne look like what he so clearly is.
Winston can sit where he pleases. I don’t think anyone believes for an instant he is anything but a pure politician. He could show up with a slit-skirt and high heels and simply be “in character”,,, but I have to respect his ability to deal with the hand HE got in the election.
–ot–
We have opportunities ahead of us. Better than most of the alternatives. The USA is on cusp and will see some massive changes between now and election 2006. These may lead to massive changes for everyone. If we have a real economist in the swamp it’d be interesting to hear a guess about how global recession will play out in NZ.
respectfully
BJ
October 25th, 2005 at 2:16 pm
Hey BJ,
and we’ve always known that the liferafts some out whenever the global economy gets a cold.
some of us live on our populist economics ( not to be confused with my occasional feminist economics rants..
1987 isn’t that far away, surely, and many of the same conditions are in place, with an added stress for young (say, under 30) people of having significant student loan debt.
Forget about avian ‘flu, get yourself a good civil defence kit and tinned food/bottled water supply for when the IMF/World bank system falls over, and it’s every third world country for themselves ( we qualify now, you can grow bananas in Auckland these days…)
Strangely, I’ve heard tales of IT geeks learning to shoot handguns (not the rule in NZ, hardly anyone owns a gun compared to the US) in the expectation that a huge global systems meltdown is on its way. Early adopters, as usual.
Start stockpiling bicycles simple enough to maintain by yourself is my other big market tip for the next financial year.
humorously,
katie
October 25th, 2005 at 2:25 pm
um..frog…don’t you mean.. two steps back..one step forward…maybe..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
October 25th, 2005 at 3:17 pm
so ..katie…do you have a good guess on the date for the rapture…?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
October 26th, 2005 at 12:44 pm
Mana is intact, for sure. And that mana is much better currency than cheap political exploitation or opportunism. Labour knows that, I’m sure.
Peters also knows it. I’m sure all this squirming around over the definitions of coalition and government are just spin to avoid looking like a liar, and he’ll be working as hard as he can to gain credibility in his foreign ministerial roles. He’s got his crumbs for the oldies and a ‘review’ of immigration policy.
Dunne is the wild card. He has screwed the most he can get out of his 3 seats, and that will be all he will get. The worm is turning against his bottom lines and bs.
Would like to hear from green economists though, as an economic crash will be the only thing with any chance of putting National back in. What gives with these crazy house prices? And does that hurt or help the economy?
October 26th, 2005 at 4:25 pm
The first principle of Green economics is to invest in Green capital.
Kyoto, Carbon Taxes and Solar Water Heating
Wind and hydro power would be available for other uses, if household water heating came from solar sources (funded from carbon taxes?).
Energy Efficiency and Solar Initiative
The Green Party sees the energy efficiency and solar initiative as part of the Government’s broader programme on sustainable energy and climate change and an important step to reducing New Zealand’s energy use and preparing for the end of cheap oil.
Main initiatives
* build capacity in the solar water heating manufacturing and installing industry through economies of scale and bring down the price of units with a bulk order mediated by the government
* significantly raise the fuel efficiency of vehicles coming into NZ with a mandatory market based mechanism
* increase and extend support for insulating and damp proofing homes
* urgently upgrade the building standard for new homes to reflect what is efficient at today’s electricity prices
* move beyond research into demonstration and commercial projects in biofuels in co-operation with industry.
The full text of the Labour-led Government Co-operation Agreement with Greens is on the Green website.
The right wing view
Kyoto ‘will stifle growth’
17 October 2005
By MARTA STEEMAN
New Zealand will not be able to cut greenhouse gases without severe economic hardship, says a report that calls for carbon taxes to be dropped.
The report is written by economist Alex Sundakov of consultancy Castalia.
It says it will be impossible for New Zealand to reduce emissions and expand the economy at the same time.
Almost half of the country’s greenhouse gases come from agriculture and 20 per cent from vehicles. The remainder is from industry and manufacturing.
The Castalia report was commissioned by the Greenhouse Policy Coalition, a lobby group of big energy users. The group hopes to influence the Government’s review of its climate-change policies.
The review followed revelations that New Zealand may not meet its Kyoto protocol emissions target for the first commitment period of 2008-12 and may have to spend $500 million to buy carbon credits.
Unrealistic greenhouse gas emissions targets could push industries to quit New Zealand for non-Kyoto countries.
Steel making, cement production, aluminium production, oil refining, and wood and food processing were likely to do this. That would harm the economy but not lead to any global emissions reductions.
“With nearly half our greenhouse gas emissions coming from agriculture, where there are no easy solutions, it will be very expensive if we have to try to wring the required national emission reductions out of the remaining sectors of the economy,” Mr Sundakov said.
The present economic growth had been driven by industrial processing, commodity exporting and tourism - all of them energy-intensive activities.
The report said it was wrongly assumed that New Zealand’s big energy-intensive industries were inefficient users of energy.
Traditional growth in the primary sectors as well as in tourism would lead to rising greenhouse gas emissions for the foreseeable future.
Cuts in emissions were more likely to come from technological solutions in the longer term than from suppression of demand for fossil fuels such as oil and gas.
A reduction in households’ electricity use was difficult without draconian enforcement and a decline in living standards.
As household sizes continued to shrink and their number to grow, electricity use was likely to rise even with more efficient appliances.
The Government could encourage the use of new technologies such as hybrid (petrol-electric) cars and put restrictions on imported cars. It could also encourage quicker adoption of new technology by allowing faster depreciation of plant.
Catherine Beard, executive director of the Greenhouse Policy Coalition, said the Government would have to question whether membership of Kyoto was sustainable.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3445835a13,00.html
The answer is to fast track the investment in solar water heating in our homes. The government gives us a tax cut in the form of a capital investment in solar water heating. Those who get in first have to pay a deposit (those who get it later get it at a lower deposit or free, as they have to wait for the cheaper power bills).
October 26th, 2005 at 5:39 pm
Thanks SPC… Katie
Where has Rod’s query about foreign home ownership, property acquisition gone? That one is close to the heart for me.
I think I will go ahead with the new/used bicycle. It’s doable and I could use the exercise. I wonder if I could get someone to fix up the old one… (somewhat bent during the ocean voyage and almost 20 years old).
Can one even buy a 10 speed gearset anymore? (actually VERY bent)
respectfully
BJ
October 26th, 2005 at 10:17 pm
If you’re lazy you can buy my electric scooter. I had a change of heart over the awesome potential of electric transport when a little kid rode along beside me lazily, jeering at my ‘full throttle’, and continued in this vein when the battery went flat and I had to push it 3 km to get home
Nice idea, but not there yet. That’s my word of warning to Green transport policy - electric scooters will make even kids think you’re a wierdo.
Pushbike is better, and you don’t have to get a registration. You can get a brand new one at Foodtown for $169, if you can bear to part with your imported classic.