Greengage :

Being in opposition means not voting the budget, and not voting confidence in the government. If Clark presents a ministry with Peters and Dunne in it, and no Greens, I don’t think it would be an exaggeration to say that the Greens have no confidence in that government.

As it happens, the Greens could not bring such a government down — it would have 61 seats without the Greens. And that is precisely why it would be pointless for the Greens to be bound into supporting such a government — there would be no dividend in doing so, since the support is numerically superfluous.

There’s a limit. The Greens will earn nothing but contempt for sticking around where they are not wanted.

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Alistair

“Being capable of” is not the same as getting the votes or having the ambition to do so.

My comment has to do with the perceived maturity of the party. My intended meaning is basically that we do not get the respect we need because we have locked in the mindset “We are a fringe group and we don’t have to think about all the actual problems a government faces” .

THAT DOES NOT WORK for most voters. “What am I getting as an immigration policy if the Greens have a say in it?” “What am I getting as an defence policy if the Greens have a say in it?”

If you leave the questions unanswered then someone else (E.B.) will fill in the blanks. It costs us. It even costs labour, as our “soft target” allows attacks to wash over on their demographic too.

If we really want to stick to the fringes and play along the shore of the big river we certainly can do so. I have pointed out repeatedly that this is dangerous and the latest near-death experience should be kept in mind… and for most of your post I agree with your point.

However, with all due respect… I don’t think we managed a successful communication of my intended meaning into your understanding … which is probably at least PARTLY my fault. Sorry.

Finally…
No, the Greens are not going to supplant Labour, and gain an absolute majority in parliament. Ever. Forget about that idea.

In the long run, if Labour adopts Green ideas and ideals, it becomes the “Green” party… and we become the majority. If the environment and peak oil show us to be correct most of the time in this area, we could very easily reach a point where IF we’ve done our homework, we are co-equal or senior members of a Green-Labour coalition. That could be in as little as 2 decades. It would not be in the next election. I doubt however, that with MMP there will be many (if any) absolute majorities.

respectfully
BJ

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Phil
I’m not sure about ‘the inevitable changes time/effort brings’ you express. In 1975, Values Party [Green heritage] scored 5.3% of the popular vote. In 2005, Greens get 5.3% of the popular vote.
I see no inevitable changes in the attraction of Green policies. I see stagnation. Greens have been preaching compost heaps and worm farms to the converted for 30 years.
How do we get ourselves out of being an idealist movement that can become a political force in its own right?
Yes, it’s nice to say Green philosophies are entering the thinking of other parties, but, if that’s all we achieve after nearly a third of a century, we should just become a Green thinktank and join the ranks of the Business Roundtable, Maxim and other groups peddling a particular spin.
I’d like to think Greens can grow as a political force for good, can begin to draw defectors from both the left and right, and become the middle ground party of the future.
To [mis]quote Brash, ‘being Green is mainstream’ and it’s the other parties who have extreme, crazy and dangerously outmoded ideas about how to govern our islands.

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alistair..”..No, the Greens are not going to supplant Labour, and gain an absolute majority in parliament. Ever. Forget about that idea…”

alistair ..you show a refreshing optimism re the status quo of the various political parties..

a read of new zealand political history will show that parties come and parties go…..

if i felt the green party was doomed to some relatively irrelevant rump role forever..i wouldn’t have suppported/voted for them for the last nine years or so…

can you not see the inevitable changes time/effort brings, and the growing relevance of the green message, as harbingers of an eventual/possible ascension..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)

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What would “being in opposition” entail? If it meant not supporting the Government on confidence and supply, and the Government fell, the Greens would probably not have any seats at the ensuing election.
If it meant speaking out and voting against policies that Greens consider harmful, then I hope we would do that anyway. That is the freedom of not being in coalition.

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Respectfully, BJ, you really haven’t understood the political system here yet!

No, the Greens are not going to supplant Labour, and gain an absolute majority in parliament. Ever. Forget about that idea.

However, in order to be respected, if Labour makes a deal with both NZF and UF, then the Greens should be in opposition. Not with National and Act, but a principled, loyal, left-wing opposition. A centrist government ought logically to have an opposition on each side.

That, I believe, is the only position that can gain us respect in the current situation. It hardly matters what policy deals are made; with no ministers to see them carried out, and some ministers actively working against them, Green policies will only be a source of further frustration and humiliation under a centrist government.

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but the danger is 0.3% of that core turning away in disgust at the compromises made to support/sustain a labour/nz first government…

I find that I agree in this. In spite that I generally argue that we have to reword policies and have policies that make the mainstream Kiwi comfortable with our ideas. That’s how we get above 10% firm… we ATTRACT the center, not move into it.

But the question now isn’t policies but principles. Core support could be lost WITHOUT any potential gains.

Now that we’ve had the election and it’s an indeterminate but likely longish time til the next, it is time to stick to those principles.

We cannot ever be seen as independent until we can be seen as capable of governing without labour.

respectfully
BJ

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Point is, the Greens are going to be around long after Peters and Dunne are gone, and they know it.

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yes blacksand…but the danger is 0.3% of that core turning away in disgust at the compromises made to support/sustain a labour/nz first government…

then it is a matter of ‘goodnight irene..’

yes alistair…the greens are in that familiar post-election relatively powerless position…(ready to be a green-tinted handbag for clark and peters..?..oh joy..!..)

(once again..those policy gains had better be bloody impressive…)

somehow..i think this green party ethos of blind alliegance to labour isn’t serving us at all well..eh..?..

i don’t have a pat answer to that conundrum…but it is something we should be talking about/working on…y’know..the old mantra..’neither left nor right..but out in front’….we need to translate that into a reality… before the green party can gain the power/size required to do the job…..

somehow a more independent green stance needs to be worked on…

phil(whoar.co.nz)

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we might be off the mark a bit using the 2002 election results to gauge the core green vote. It’s clear that this time around there was some importance in Labour having a larger vote on the night than National (or the other way around for that matter…). This was hardly the case in 2002; National were not a credible contender to form a goverment and I would hazard a guess that the increase in support the greens got was the fallout from the alliance dropping off the radar.

I would not have brought myself to vote Labour but I still think that the outcome was as close to ideal as you could get considering the very fine line that exists between the Greens shedding enough support to Labour for them to be the majority, and the Greens remaining above the 5% threshhold.

I don’t think that those votes went to Labour because the Greens were in danger of dipping below 5%, and I think that this result demonstrates that the core support under trying circumstances is still there, /not/ that it has dropped.

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So, what can the Greens do?

Bugger-all really.

One thing that we should make clear : if Clark envisages a government with Peters and Dunne, without us, then we should vote it down. Promises of eternal fidelity are generally considered null and void when you come home and find your partner in bed with someone else.

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I feel betrayed by Helen Clark.

This is far from the first time, over the past 20 years… Yet each time (until now), in the ensuing years, I have felt a sort of awe-filled respect for her pragmatism and long view.

If she had left Labour with Anderton, NZ would be a different place today, and not a better one, I think.

So what’s she playing at now? She wants to avoid forming a government purely of the left, because that would taint Labour’s centrist appeal, and open it to attrition in the direction of the centrist parties at the next election.

However, she seems to be willing to pay an extraordinarily high price to achieve this (it’s true that Brash has ably raised the stakes) — a blown budget, a ministry for Peters, and still no guarantee to see out the term with him.

In fact it’s hard to imagine a scenario where a Clark/Peters government runs a full term. He will seek to trap her into a crisis, with ever-increasing demands. If she caves, then his credit will increase; if she lets him walk, then she could, no doubt, patch up a left coalition to see out the term, but again, he would have a good chance of increasing his vote.

She might, in the final analysis, prefer a LPGM government — it would be consistent with her principles, in contradiction with her pragmatism, but really the best guarantee of three years of stable government.

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Tony Milne:

I agree!

eredwen

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Clara:

Obviously the Maori Party isn’t just Tariana and Peter, and they seem to have a really democratic, consultative system.

Their voters would normally tend towards Labour. However, the Seabed and Foreshore legislation was, in my opinion, a misuse of power that showed an enbarrassing (for me as a Pakeha) disrespect for and distrust of Maori. I’m angry about it … and can only imagine how the affected Iwi and Hapu feel.

I say “good on them” for doing the rounds, finding out what is and isn’t on offer, and showing that they ARE autonymous. (I hear they have given Don Brash a much needed basic lesson on Maori and early Pakeha history.)

I’m fervently hoping they will decide to support a Labour led Government!!
and to this end believe that Helen (if she hasn’t already) needs to sink her pride (or is that a tactic?) and actually cordially INVITE Tariana et al to meet and discuss the matter.

Both Labour and Maori have indicated that they were open to talks with everyone. (I wonder, have the Greens have discussed this with Helen?)

Maybe Winston is making demands with Helen over Maori (and Green)?

All mere supposition… What do others think?

eredwen

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I am not sure if this has been brought up, but is anyone feeling a little betrayed by Tariana Turia and the MP? In all fairness I didn’t vote for them, however I (along with my family) were happy to see them elected, now I am not so sure. Do you think they will be returned next term?

I think I mentioned somewhere that National +MP wouldn’t be so scary but I have been hearing things about the mutual desire to unbundle (i.e privatise?) education and I am increasingly concerned. Any thoughts?

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I think it’s going to be a very challenging 3 years regardless of what happens with the negotiations. And the left have a big job on their hands to renew, and rebuild to ensure a Centre-left (rather than a Centre-left-right) government in 2008.

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… office for the weekend, but will be back bright and early tomorrow!

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Frog has left the green party.

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isn’t frog being a very quiet frog..these last couple of days…?..i wonder why…?

phil(whoar.co.nz)

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Katie:

That is good to know! Thank you.

eredwen

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