by frog
Well, it seems like Winston is coming out with a position a day on his intentions after the election. I think his position is now as follows:
- He will enter negotiations with the largest party (if it wants to), and offer it abstentions (or, if necessary, support) on confidence and supply motions.
- He will not be prepared to provide such confidence and supply support (or abstention) if the Greens or Act are part of a coalition government with the largest party.
Now, what Winston hasn’t made clear is whether he’d be willing to provide confidence and supply support (or abstention) for a government that also had confidence and supply support from the Greens or Act. My guess is that he would be willing to do this, because the alternative is that there’s a real possibility that no-one could form a government and thus a fresh election would have to be called. Winston would not want this on his head.
Take the current make-up of Parliament in frogblog‘s averager:
Labour: 51 MPs
National: 49
Greens: 8
NZ First: 7
Maori: 4
United: 2
Progressives: 1
Total: 122 seats
This is a 122-seat Parliament, so 62 seats are needed for a majority. If Winston wasn’t prepared to support (or at least offer abstention on confidence and supply to) a Labour-led government that also had confidence and supply from the Greens, then a government simply couldn’t be formed on these numbers unless United were willing to come to the Labour/Green party. A National-led government would be able to muster 51 MPs (National plus United), which would be bolstered to 60 with NZ First. A Labour-led government without the Greens would be able to muster 54 MPs (Labour plus Progs plus United), or 61 with NZ First.
So, a recipe for chaos. My guess of what would happen in this scenario is that Peter Dunne, playing his “stability” card, would allow a Labour/Green Government to form. This would allow him to spend the next three years banging on about how when the country faced a second election in as many months, he looked beyond party politics and plumped for the country’s future. In light of this, I have changed the “most likely government” in our polling graphic to Labour/Green/United.
But, again: Who the Hell knows? What’s becoming clearer by the day is that Kiwis would be plain daft to allow Winston to call the shots after the election. His is a recipe for confusion, instability, even chaos. The message of both sides these last few days has to be: save the country from Winston! This country’s worst nightmare would be to wake up on Sunday morning with neither side – LPG or NU – having a clear majority. 1996 is starting to seem like a picnic.
Of course, with a slight move in public opinion in the Labour/Green favour would make all these machinations irrelevant. On current polling, the LPG team has 60 of 122 seats, so just a couple short of a majority. An election night result with, say, Labour on 42% and the Greens on 8% (not that far from our current polling averages) would render all these permutations irrelevant, because LPG would have a clean and clear majority. Those wanting a progressive government on Sunday need to use every ounce of their being to make this result a reality. Otherwise, we’re headed for weeks, maybe even months, of instability and then possibly even another election.
UPDATE: Again, I have edited the polling methodology page to update the assumptions on which the “most likely government” is chosen.
Published in Campaign by frog on Tue, September 13th, 2005
Tags: environment
on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
Finally we hear why you keep on with the LPGUF government. Fair enough, UF might fold and go with you.
But what about LPUF with Greens in conf/supp…?
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Figures look great, Frog, but how does this scenario fit with the “overhang” possibility you mentioned a while ago?
United and Act shrinking to minimalist propoertions is another lovely thought to dwell on as I head off for my day
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It will be LPG + Maori, who may be the last cab of the rank, but are in the convoy. UF becomes irrelevant, as does NZF. National/EB [the two seem joined at the hip] can spend 3 years writing pamphlets, and ACT will be gone.
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Katie – Frog is taking the overhang into account. 122 seat Parliament that’s Frog is assuming includes 2 overhang seats (presumably both from the Maori Party – without checking numbers). And that means 62 seats required for majority rather than the current 61.
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I think DR is right. Team LPG is likely to pick up confidence and supply from the Maori Party without really conceding anything to them – Clark would simply have to point them across the aisle to the other potential PM.
Even if the Maori Party were to just abstain on confidence and supply (and there’s no way MP would actually vote LPG out in order to get Brash in), my understanding is that team LPG could govern OK. A government in NZ does not face a formal investiture vote, and needs to be positively defeated on confidence and supply. In Frog’s example (assuming that both NZF and U team up with Brash), such a confidence vote could end up as LPG 60, NZFUN (how ironic) 59, abstentions 4, and the government would stand. But it’s still a squeaker!
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Ringo,
At your standard confidence motion at the start of a parliamenty year (and I assume of a Parliament) Governments in NZ face two votes – a motion of confidence and a motion of no confidence – they do have to pass both.
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Edge,
a) I don’t think you’re right – there isn’t separate voting for confidence and no confidence (or any motion of confidence).
b) even if you were right, such a govt would pass a confidence vote and a no-confidence vote by 60 – 59 with 4 abstentions. There are no rules saying that in this case an abstention is actually a noe.
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No, youre all wrong. It will be a last cab off the rank Government in this scenario. As I see it UF and Maori will band together a coalition with Labour and Progressives. That gives them 59 MPs. Party leaders will be cabinet ministers and the rest from Labour. NZ First will go into confidence and supply with that arangement as Greens are not involved.
Greens will become irrelevant unless Winston changes his mind.
National will not be able to form a workable government under this scenario, meaning that, going by the past four polls, United Future is the party most likely to be in Government.
So Frog, can you adjust your stats?
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