On the Friday night issue, I agree you will not normally get a representative sample. However one can use direct pollsters to target certain demographics so the overall responses are still reflective of the population.

To know whether they did this, you would have to ask the SST what their gender and age breakdown was.

Like or Dislike: 0  0 (0)

Come on Frog this is conspiracy theory-type stuff. And whilst banding around conspriacies can be fun in the analysis in the conspiracy vs stuff-up possibility, it is invaribaly the latter.

My guess is that the 2% was a typo not picked up in proof-reading rather than a accurate reflection of some earlier poll not picked up in proof-reading.

As for your query as to why this phantom second poll would show an increase after the exclusive brethren happenings, rather than assume the second one wrong, why not assume the first one under-reported National’s lead, which *fell* to 7% from it’s higher point. Or assume that most people didn’t give a stuff, or are tired on the emphasis on negativity, or like the fact that when Brash stuffed up he actually had the good sense to *apologise*.

Like or Dislike: 0  0 (0)

I was polled for the SST Poll over a week ago – I would have expected it to be published last Sunday but there was no poll. I think it’s fair to say that any poll published today reflects public attitudes of a week previous.

Who knows what the Friday night influence is – it may have avoided contact with young single workers who intend to vote National because of the tax cut proposition, or young people intending to vote Labour becuase of the Loans policy?

I guess your statement of ‘Who the Hell knows!’ is the most accurate. Second on the accuracy scale is it is too close to call on a number of issues.

Like or Dislike: 0  0 (0)

frog..a tidy summary of the perils of the polls…but can i query your claims of ‘predicting a most likely government’..?

you aren’t engaging in the dark and perilous art of prediction….you are in the number-crunching business of post-mortem….of necessity ..your graphs look back..not forward..therefor you cannot claim to be predicting..eh..?..you are more in the arena of ..”if an election had been called last week..”…note use of the words ‘last week’..

(a small point..but a significant one..don’t want to claim any unearned glory..do we frog..?.heh heh..)

you have been consistant in refusing to ‘call’ the election..(the safer course..i know..)…unlike (ahem) foolhardy me..

and that’s lab/grn/prog…greens crack 10%..national vote collapses..act get back in ..peters is too hard to call..but he is certainly going through a ‘perils’ period..

yours in accurate use of the english language….

phil(whoar.co.nz)

Like or Dislike: 0  0 (0)

oops I tried to stop the “add comment” from loading so that I could add imho.
could you please delete my first comment and this one
cheers.

Like or Dislike: 0  0 (0)

this is totally unacceptable!
Anything claiming to be a politacal poll needs to be open about its process and have a process with sound methodology as judged by statistics experts.
These polls, as they get closer to the election may have a huge baring on how people actually vote.
Another reason why I have now become convinced that the introduction of stv for both party votes and electorate votes is essential to retaining our democracy.
- imagine a poll just before the elections that showed the greens under 5%.
There could be a rush to Labour to try and stave off the thought of a nat victory.
- This is just one example to do with the greens, but if this happened to any party it would be a tradgedy for our democracy.
Only by introducing stv at both party and electorate levels, can we correct this problem.
imho.

Like or Dislike: 0  0 (0)

this is totally unacceptable!
Anything claiming to be a politacal poll needs to be open about its process and have a process with sound methodology as judged by statistics experts.
These polls, as they get closer to the election may have a huge baring on how people actually vote.
Another reason why I have now become convinced that the introduction of stv for both party votes and electorate votes is essential to retaining our democracy.
- imagine a poll just before the elections that showed the greens under 5%.
There could be a rush to Labour to try and stave off the thought of a nat victory.
- This is just one example to do with the greens, but if this happened to any party it would be a tradgedy for our democracy.
Only by introducing stv at both party and electorate levels, can we correct this problem.

Like or Dislike: 0  0 (0)

Frog:

For once, we’re in perfect agreement apart from the bit where you said “The Greens’ position in today’s polls – of at or around 6% – is heartening”.

BTW, I don’t think it was a matter of “shelling out” when it came to the sample size. I was surprised enough to see the HoS’s pollster managed to get anywhere near 400 usable responses in 24 hours.

Like or Dislike: 0  0 (0)