ah now if you’re looking for a interesting self-selecting sample internet poll, may I recommend:

http://www.politics.org.nz/

they need some more people to take the various surveys – seems to be only 400 so far – you need to register and vote to be able to see the results.

Craig, well you got the post you were looking forward to:
http://blog.greens.org.nz/index.php/2005/09/08/an-odd-overreaction/

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peterquixote:

Rodney will not get Epsom. The poll that showed Rodney leading the Nats was done by Act party members and apparently overseen by an Aussies polling company that is no longer operating in NZ. In other words it is a load of bollocks. A last ditch effort to prevent oblivion.

Alan

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BTW, Frog, good to see the Greens managed to inspire National Radio to censor its own presenter – see
http://www.nzpundit.com/archives/2005/09/08/05.46.55

Look forward to the post condemning this outright censorship from our state-owned broadcaster.

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Stymied:

Indeed. I find ‘em interesting, but you do have to be very careful about the inherit bias of self-selecting samples. I’m not saying they’re complete worthless (it’s interesting to see what kind of people feel strongly connitted on an issue to participate), but you must have the qualification in there.

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I liked this remark, zippy:
The electorate may be volatile but it is not bipolar.

But I think you’re wrong… I think “bipolar” might be quite a good description for the wild mood-swing voters. Who say “Yeah! Bloody right!” when Brash bashes the bros (not the brethren!) but feel slightly ashamed the next day. Similarly on tax. A surge of self-interest followed by an egalitarian reflux.

Looks like the excitement is with National in this campaign, but they can’t keep it up long. I predict they will turn out relatively limp and shrivelled on election day.

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My reply at
http://gonzofreakpower.blogspot.com/2005/09/fuck-polls.html

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Heh, yeah i think all this does is highlight the mound of salt these polls need to be taken with.

You know what I reeeeally hate – when Campbell Live and the Herald use dodgy Stuff internet polls to run stories and give statistics without giving it any kind of intelligent background.

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And who knows… if the pollsters get it terribly wrong, we might see some media outlets might start redirect their polling budgets (which I’ve heard run to millions of dollars a year) on recruting, resourcing and retaining experienced journalists. I don’t believe the revolving door between newsrooms, lobbyists and corporate/government spin machines is healthy for the media or democracy. As I’ve said elsewhere, what does it say when two of the most experienced journalists in in Parliament aren’t in the Press Gallery because they’re chief spin doctors for Helen Clark and Don Brash?

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One positive thing about the ‘volatile’ poll numbers, is you’re seeing a lot more transparency and self-critical analysis from media organisations of their own polling. Not quite up to the standard of the Washington Post and NY Times – who put on line their methodology, questions and detailed data – but things are getting better.

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I think its unlikely that Act will get in this time around PQ. Hide trails the Nat guy in Epsom apparently by quite a margin, along with sub-5% poll rating.

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your mrs sure got experience fwwog we credit that, just she overexperienced so we lets her go stockholm soon,
now yous blithely exaggerate again, we confident Epsom plus 3%, put that in yous graph fwwog, because even you got to admit you cant read these reports, theres plus 4 seat ACT,

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bloody hell frog, how high is the resolution on your monitor set? all the graphs are huge and go way way off the screen (apart from Left vs Right – party vote % – can’t you make them all like that?) When it comes to Excel graphs you truely are the antithesis of Edward R. Tufte!!!

Also, you could edit the label on the tabs so that instead of sheet 2, sheet 3, etc it actually says what the graph is that that sheet contains.

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If these polls are correct, (and with the Hearld and Fairfax out in the next few days to confirm it), Dunne will be absolutely kicking himself for that stupid love in he had with Brash. Hes really going to be first on Clarks phone list now. I hope the polls are confirmed and she rebuffs a chance to have a love in with him. What a dork.
Also I think Labours poll lead will continue to harden as the full extent of the Brethern scandal comes out.

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Given, that polls could influence the election. Especially polls so close to it. Are there any objective standards that polls have to be judged by. Imaging if the last poll before the election showed the greens below the 5% mark?

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