by frog
TV One has released a poll tonight showing a huge turnaround: last week, Labour had a three-point lead; this week, National has an eight-point lead. That’s a thirteen-point swing. Clearly, National’s tax cut and race relations policies have resonated with voters.
First, a couple of caveats. This is but one poll, and others with similar polling periods – such as the Fairfax poll yesterday – haven’t shown such large leads for National. Also, there appears to be huge volatility in National’s support – the polling from the past few weeks has shown it move between 33 at the lower end and 46 at the upper end, and these ups and downs have continued after their major policy announcement of tax cuts. We should, therefore, be cautious in interpreting this result: things could change again a lot between now and polling day.
However, none of that should change the big-picture stuff: National has got itself into the lead in the polls, and the ball is now in Labour’s court to find a way to get back in front. Helen Clark now has two weeks to convince the country that she deserves a third term. The one remaining headache for National is a lack of coalition partners, especially if NZ First doesn’t make it back into Parliament. I think, however, you’d have to back NZ First and United to go with the major party with the most seats, so National will probably wager that if it can stay ahead of Labour, then it will have the inside running to form a government.
Given the huge swings in voter support from poll-to-poll (indicating that voters are reacting to events on the campaign trail in great numbers), I have altered slightly my formula for our polling graphic. Polls two weeks old completely drop out of the analysis, and polls between one and two weeks old count for half of polls less than a week old. (Before my changes, polls two weeks hold had a 0.5 weighting and polls between one and two weeks had a 0.75 weighting.)
Bringing these changes to bear on our new data, Labour and National are now virtually neck and neck. If TVNZ’s poll result is mimicked in other polls coming out soon (TV3 will have a poll on Wednesday, and the Herald on Friday), then National will move into the lead in frogblog‘s averaging graphic. With two weeks to go, United and Act look in a terrible position, and are sure to lose MPs. As for the makeup of Parliament, if National’s numbers continue to improve, then it (with NZ First and United) will soon be in a position to form a government on frogblog‘s figures. Currently, in a 121-seat Parliament, Labour/Green/United have 61 seats and National/NZ First/United have 59 seats. Watch this space. The updated data and charts are here.
Published in Campaign by frog on Sun, September 4th, 2005
Tags: environment
on the trolls and those who are unable to keep on topic
Hmm, this reminds me of a post I saw on here last week about the full scale panic National must be in titled ‘Alarm bells, anyone?’ perhaps this statement could now by directed towards Labour, so Alarm bells, anyone?
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Quite. Though, paradoxically, National’s strong showing makes me think that a Labour comeback is eminently possible. There has been something like a sixteen-point swing in the last two weeks of the campaign (if all the polls are to be believed – and I am inclined to think that both the big leads – Labour’s before and National’s now – have been exaggerated a bit) – so one shouldn’t rule out a big move in the other direction in these final two weeks of the campaign…
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Labour may yet gain traction and retake the momentum from National. However, unless National really goofs up or Labour has a hidden secret weapon ready to deploy I must say that it is unlikely that a rather tired Labour party could take the momentum back. The one caveat I have is this: the Greens may actually get the CLark government back in because of special votes for the Green party coming in from oversea’s. This is one factor none of these polls take into account. Tis unfortunate I know but theres one thought to find solace in – one term of the Greens in government and they will never make it back to parliament again.
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Great, Peak Oil on the horizon, and we get a bloody classical economist and Winston Peters running the country.
After all, in Saturday’s Dom, Brash assured us that petrol would never rise above $2 a litre. He may be right this time, but I suspect he won’t be right for very long.
Anyone else feeling apprehensive and scared?
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Indeed Tane. Labour really needs to get its act together now.
Thankfully the Greens will be in parliament either way, so at least their voices will remain. It would be rather ironic for National to be in power when the full blows of Peak Oil actually hit however.
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This should come as no surprise.
A common thread running through recent poll numbers, Frog’s posts, and even borne out by National’s behavior: National is playing the game like they know they don’t need ACT/NZF as partners. Frog calls it reckless but maybe National and their (former ACT) backers aren’t as clueless about MMP as they appear. They can kick NZ First and ACT to the curb — they don’t care, they benefit. The scenario, should NZ First not make the cut, is simple. National and United form a government. In fact, stuffing NZ First helps them. And I consider the Labour/Green/United coaltion a fiction anyway, based on Dunne’s comments.
Recall the chilling interview in early 2004 where George Bush, momentarily lucid, tells Tim Russert, re: the election — “Heh, heh, I’m not gonna lose.”
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yous grasping at straw in pond with web foot fwog, yous finished fwog, the cwedibility attack on gereen evens more ferocious than i thought, the right attack in full flight, Bwash has ACT, UF, NZL wqrapped up fwwog, this was the answer to the idea he was evasive flailing,kingmarker tyrant beaten by bwash, NZ love strong mans Bwash,
NAT/ACT/UF/NZl 2005 NZ government
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Firstly,
Thank you for editing the weighting calculation as i suggested… I think this makes the poll a lot more accurate as we get closer to the election.
However I still don’t understand how you can list the most likely government as LPGUF… Sure UF might change their mind but this is as likely (or even less) as National doing a deal in Epsom (think what a change this would have on the polls).
Also… wasn’t it handy that the Maori party went up *just* enough to remove an overhang seat making it still possible for that LPGUF government of yours.
Peter
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It’s remarkable that, with most of the parties’ support going up and down like yo-yos (and most of their leaders behaving likewise), the Greens rarely budge from 6%.
Belch : Love your special-votes scenario. I remember the despair/elation of 1999… I’ll be casting mine by fax, I wonder does it get counted on election night, or later with postal votes.
Tony : A Nat govt withoug Winsome? Nat/UF government? What have you been smoking? (can I have some?) Nat would require 59 seats for that… pipedreams…
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Peter Coyote : If NZers really love a strong man, then they’ll stick with Helen eh… Bwash is a wimp.
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Allistair –
First, I was not high when I posted about Nat/UF. I was drunk.
Second, Nat/UF speculation came directly from the article quoted by Frog concerning the poll. ( I’d quote the article but the text isn’t rendering for me at the moment.) Perhaps I was hasty in deferring to the author’s judgment on possible governments — they were applying their poll numbers to an NZF-less government to get the 59/2 figure. Note a variant of the same Nat/UF speculation exists in Frog’s original post. And you must admit UF rhetoric isn’t exactly solicitous to Greens. Anyway, it was with no joy that I posted any of the speculation. It was in fact the opposite.
What do you think explains the Green numbers remaining fixed? It would seem to me one implication is volatility of the centre/right voters and not bad polling as Labour claims this morning. Otherwise, would we not see the same range of volatility for other parties?
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Could frog please explain why you are bothering to put a Green United labour down as a likely option – Alexander and copeland ain’t gonna work with you – Dunne may if he gets a nice enough possie
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I have refrained from ever commenting on the election itself, as frankly I’ve seen too many surprises in too many elections to want to say too much about them.
However I do suspect that National may win this one with an absolute majority of 3-4 seats.
Everytime Brash or Brownlee spout their reactionary policies, a big chunk of the electorate love it. the more they model themselves on the US Neocons, the more response Brash is getting. It is what the people want, and so they will get it.
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Yeah, frog explain why LPG-United (59+2) is more likely than LPG-Maori (59+3) or indeed LPG-NZ1st (59+8) or even LP-NZ1st-United (51+8+2)
Maybe you should change it to “too close to call”
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Stuey: because Labour had expressed a preference for United and/or the Greens over the Maori Party and/or NZ1st.
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Yes but you keep ignoring that United have said they wont go with Labour if they are with green…
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