Will this be enough?
Last night’s poll, with Labour holding an 8-point lead, will have sent shock waves through National. How has it managed to allow a lead of 2 and 3 points in the TVNZ polls of June and July turn into an 8 point deficit halfway through August? What has caused this 11-point turnaround in the space of a month? How can a Labour Party which was elected six long years ago now be polling much better than it was in 1999? Why hasn’t there been an erosion in confidence in Labour and Helen Clark? Why did National delay the playing of its tax card until after Labour had completely regained the momentum? How come Don Brash still can’t answer straight questions or give detailed answers to anything but questions on economics? How come months of preparation and millions of dollars haven’t made the Don Brash National Party appear ready for office?
This is National’s chief problem. Labour and Helen Clark are still, by all scientific accounts, remarkably popular for a government that has been in power for more than half a decade. National’s chief strategy is to say how terrible Labour and Helen Clark are. But Kiwis actually don’t buy it. One suspects that, like John Kerry, National’s message of hate towards Helen Clark has actually done little more than rally the Right’s troops behind a single flag. It has mobilised National’s base, killing off Act and United. But, so far, it has singularly failed to reach over and take Labour’s votes. Its negative, divisive message won’t win them over.
If the tax policy doesn’t give National a significant boost in the polls, then the political journalists will start turning on Brash. Already, some of them are calling this announcement the last throw of the dice for National. As Vernon Small writes in the Dominion Post this morning:
If the next round of polls, after the tax cut package, do not show some move back to National, its campaign will be in crisis.
Having compared the effect the two parties’ tax policies will have on middle New Zealand, I can’t see how National’s tax policy will be the circuit-breaker it needs. And, if the word “crisis” starts being bandied about in the papers, the word “infighting” won’t be far behind.
