More polling
There’s another poll to chuck into the mix. The respected Morgan polling company, based in Australia, has started doing polls in the run-up to the New Zealand general election, with a large sample size (2,000 or so people) and conducted over a two-week period. I’ve had a look over the site, and decided its methodology stacks up well enough to be included in frogblog’s averaging table.
Morgan’s latest poll, released today, has Labour ahead of National 40%-36.5%. It has NZ First on 8%, the Greens on 7.5%, and everyone else well below the 5% threshold.
Putting this new data into frogblog’s averaging spreadsheet (see new data and charts here) throws up a slightly different party vote percentages: Labour and National’s numbers fall; NZ First and the Greens’ numbers rise. These changed numbers also give the Greens an extra seat (at the expense of National).
This makes a Labour/Green Government (with support from United’s two MPs on confidence and supply) possible for the first time since we started our polling table. National, with 48 MPs and no locked-in coalition partners, will severely struggle to form a government on these figures.
NB: It’s unclear how the Maori Party did in this poll (because it isn’t listed), so I have guesstimated 1.5%. We’ve placed a call with Morgan to get the correct figure, and I will put that into the mix when we get it. However, whether it’s polled 2% or 0% won’t affect the party’s average enough to change their seat entitlement or the make-up of the House.
UPDATE: Mr Morgan has just called back and informed us that the Maori Party did poll around 1.5%.
August 18th, 2005 at 7:44 pm
Roy Morgan has proven to be the least reliable of the big three (c/w Newspoll, ACNielsen) in Australia. I wouldn’t get to excited by inflated left-wing numbers.
SMH October 11, 2004: Roy Morgan Research, came in for more embarrassment, after famously predicting a Labor landslide at the 2001 poll.”
August 18th, 2005 at 9:37 pm
you wait fwwog,
August 18th, 2005 at 10:05 pm
oh look fwwog, fwwog, percy he just pull in here yelping and cry syas look i out cruising around ans i see this huge
poster and it helen and on the poster oh helen theses red lips theys got poster helens red lips he say reddest lips than that other one in the listnr collection,
August 18th, 2005 at 10:34 pm
Bizarro.
I was playing with those figures (mostly because I reacon polls from July should be weighted much less), but the Morgan poll doesn’t seem to make such a big difference to the final make up of the govt - just changes the ratio between big/small parties.
It is interesting to see that the most important factor of this election will be whether the Greens make it over 5% or not. I’m guessing that if there is any doubt that they will slip under we’ll be seeing a lot more of Helen and Jeanette in photos together.