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Production Company: TROPOS DOKUMENTAR, Oslo, Norway
Producer/Director/Cameraman: Amund Prestegard, 52, Norwegian.
Experienced in all aspects of filmmaking since 1972.
Prestegard runs his own production company, TROPOS DOKUMENTAR since 1995.

The film �PEAK OIL — imposed by Nature� was nominated �Best professional documentary� at The Norwegian Documentary Film Festival 2005.

The idea for this film came about when Prestegard in the fall of 2002, during research for another project, became aware of the global oil depletion situation when reading the works of Campbell, Laherrere and Simmons.

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In the film Dr.Colin Campbell takes us to Stavanger in Norway where he worked the last 10 years of his professional career. He explains the aspects of discovery and subsequent production, the increase and the decline, and the fact that this will happen to the world as a whole very soon. Dr. Campbell is also our �guide� throughout the film. Our �anchorman�, so to speak.

Richard Webb is a financial risk analyst with broad experience from some of the world’s largest investment banks. He expresses his opinion about signs that the market is reaching an extremity, and that this tends to endorse what Colin Campbell and the ASPO are saying; that we are near the peak. Webb underlines the importance to understand that the dramatic event is not when we will run out of oil, but rather what will happen when there is less tomorrow than there is today.

Norwegian petroleum geologist Olve Torvanger has 30 years of world wide experience in seismic surveys, searching for oil. He points to the seriousness of a situation in which our tools become ever more sophisticated, but we are finding less and less.

Matthew Simmons is Chairman and CEO of Simmons & Co.International, one of the worlds largest energy investment banking firms. He expresses a deep concern for the urgent need to take measures to prevent that the decline shall destroy our society. He refers to the word �crisis� as: A temporary problem that has been left unattended so long that it has become permanent !

Aage Figenschou, norwegian board member of Simmons & Co expresses concern over the oil companies’ downgrading of their reserves. He believes that we are near the peak, but underlines that it will not make people run to fill up their cars. What we will see, he says, is a constant pressure towards ever higher prices, a rather negative thing…

Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review in London draws up the lines of a need for a much stronger involvement from government that could go as far as deciding who can have, and who can not. The Government, he claims, will find themselves in a war-like situation.

Investigative reporter Michael C.Ruppert is expressing his views on the fact that Dr.Campbell was approached in his own village in Western Ireland by US intelligence. Ruppert claims that what the CIA most of all wants to know is; �how close is the ASPO to penetrating the public consciousness with the issues of PEAK OIL and how close is the public to acknowledging what it’s going to mean�. According to Ruppert the so-called �war on terrorism� is nothing but a war to control the last reamining oil reserves of the planet.

US president George W. Bush expresses in the film worries over the fact that the US now imports over half of their crude oil, and that very often they import that from countries that �don’t particularly like us,�… �that it could jeopardize the national security to be dependent on sources of energy from countries that don’t care for America,-what we stand for, -what we love.�

I had high hopes for Woosh, but now I’m afraid they just join that group of lying snakes known as ISPs. As a semi rural dweller, all I say is thank heavens for Telecom. What a terrible thing to have to say.

I have no answers for what to do with Telecom, just about every scenario I see has more losers than winners. The exception might be regulation, but its still not perfect.

Only problem is that TEL represents around 18% of the NZ Sharemarket. Unbundling the loop could have a significant impact on the economy during TEL’s revaluation.

And just to p*** off the right wingers, I would even suggest that state owned BCL could very well be a good contender to add telecom’s network to its extensive portfolio.

I do agree with you that rural users are somewhat hamstrung by options - given the great expense to provide mostly unprofitable service. I’m not sure what the solution is.

Project PROBE appears to have been a failure with many rural schools unable to afford Telecoms monthly bandwidth charges when they have more important things to spend the money on.

I disagree with you on local loop unbundling.

You are correct, all those bad things you describe are happening, but with LLU there will be a massive divide between those in the urban centres who will have several providors falling over themselves to provide anything the end-user wants, and those of us outside the centres, who will be left with Telecom, who will have even less incentive to deliver equitable services.

My supporting evidence for this is the bitstream service, which - today - enables any ISP who want to to provide unlimited broadband, but with (I think) one exception, they are not doing so. They all promised, and then retracted. I do not trust other ISPs any more than telecom.

2. I wish people would stop using the term Peak Oil. We do not know if we are at the peak of production, usage etc. We will only be able to identify a peak once we have passed it. And it is more than about oil too. The focus really needs to be on energy efficiency and making the best of what we’ve got access to. Many people these days turn off when the term Peak Oil is used. Ask them if they want to make more efficient use of energy - I reckon many more respond to that, especially if it affects their wallet.

3. You have plans for Auckland and Wellington - what about other main centres? Hamilton, Christhchurch, Dunedin etc? This isn’t just an issue for the two most political cities?

4. Broadband. Mark my words, real broadband and true telecommuting will only occur once the local loop has been unbundled from Telecom. Until such time, Telecom, as the monopoly, will screw every last cent out of it. They are already holding back the capabilities of DSL in New Zealand so that it can’t be effectively used for voice-over-IP or video-conferencing without having to take out a loan first. And there are few-to-none reasonable alternatives to DSL. Funnily enough it was Labour that decided mid-2004 not to unbundle the local loop - the Labour Cabinet overrode Paul Swains recommendation to unbundle the local loop! Go figure.

Lets start with the less worthy article, that of the Herald. As I’m not a green party member I’ll not comment on their aspersions on the party, other than to note that the Green Party are recent converts to the oil issue, and I doubt very much anyone actualy wants the oil to run out.

Its beyond reasonable argument that world has been running out of oil since the first barrel was extracted, but I doubt we’ll ever actually run out. When the sun expands to gobble the earth there will still be oil in the ground. But we’ve had the easy stuff, that which is readily available, from relatively easy to get places, in relatively high volumes, at relatively low cost, both in monetary and (more importantly) in energy terms. Oil is still dirt cheap, lets go all cliche’d and compare its cost with bottle water. Oil can cost dozens, if not hundreds of times what it costs today.

But what The Herald failes to recognize is that the oil shocks of the 70s were political events, whereas whats happening now is technical (lack of enough refining capacity) and geologic (most countries producing less oil than they did several years ago). The refining problem wont be solved in any meaningful was as its not economic to do so.

So yes, prices are on the up and up, supply and demand, and as any schoolboy economist knows, the only way to relax prices is to increase supply or reduce demand. There is so much oil flowing today that to increase supply means lot more big finds, and they’ve simply not been happening. Reduction of demand is the only other possibility that will affect price, which given that for most years from the first barrel demand has been increasing, may be hard to accomplish.

Oil is extracted for two purposes, firstly as an energy source, and secondly as a raw material for a huge percentage of the planet’s goods. As its gets more difficult to extract oil, its relative value as an energy source will diminish, and more and more energy input will be needed for the extraction. As extraction gets harder, it is unclear where a suitable energy source this large is available from.

Secondly, Mr Farrar. Who at least sticks to things he knows something of.

Of course, on his principal point he’s right, you can just leave petrol prices to the market, and prices will rise and eventually level based on the laws of supply and demand. What this means, of course, is that the richest fractions of the population can afford petrol without restriction, and as you go down the social ladder you get to some point where petrol cant be afforded.

By implementing rationing you ensure that everyone, irrespective of social status and ability to pay has the opportunity to purchase petrol, and if they dont want the stuff, or need money more than petrol, they can sell their allocation to someone more wanting.

Which approach you favour, of course, goes directly to the heart of your political position. Neither approach is right or wrong per se, they are just choices about what sort of country we wish to live in.

On telecommuting - for those job functions that are amenable to telecommuting, it is a wonderful solution. However, the issue with telecommuting is that for many folks their job environment (and especially the place and the people) are at the core of their “real” life, and without this social arrangement many folks are uncomfortable. Its a problem that remains to be solved.