When you’re worried, go ballistic
National must certainly be worried about the two polls out this morning - it’s six points behind Labour, and still the effect of the student loan policy to be felt… If the hysterical reaction from the Right to the student loan announcement is anything to go by, National is seriously spooked by what the polls might show in coming weeks.
David Farrar even went as far as suggesting Labour had almost committed “electoral fraud” when he discovered that the results from that party’s student loan calculator differed from those spat out by the IRD’s calculator. However, what seems to have emerged from all the bluff and bluster is that the two calculators have slightly different assumptions. As Claire Matthews of Massey University said of Labour’s calculator in the Herald:
My overall assessment is it might not be 100 per cent accurate but it’s not grossly misleading.
Once you start comparing figures like that you can basically make it show whatever you want by changing those variables. There are so many variables.
So, National’s king hit on Labour’s prize policy has turned into little more than a scratch. National’s strategists must now be wondering whether interminably putting off the party’s tax cut policy was such a wonderful idea after all. Sure, it limits the time during which Labour can attack it. But, in the meantime, National is left saying nothing interesting at all. Voters are interpreting this silence to mean that National has nothing to offer.
July 29th, 2005 at 7:47 pm
don’t know about electoral fraud fwwog, but electoral stupidity must be Green putting up signs written in Maori.
It says “SPLIT YOUR VOTES”votes, I’ll say fwwog, only peoples like me get lots of votes, it wouldn’t make sense even without Maori party,
HINT fwog, NEW ZEALAND IS AN ENGLISH SPEAKING NATION, even though you dont want to believe it, but then the preacher know best, all things to all people, mebe he want a job back in trade aid learning about fwee trade no pay workers again, it sad, fwwog, we need Green but yous need Rod like a misguided fissile, he just dont cut it fwog,
July 29th, 2005 at 8:12 pm
The Labour party have not used proper disclosure for their online calculator - and nor has the IRD.
As Rodney has over on hidesight this new Labour vote buying exercise will cost the country almost a billion dollars a year and will see the student debt ballon to $16b by 2009 - unlike the current prediction of $10b.
The only way to move forward is tax cuts for every working New Zealander, which can easily be afforded by the $1.9b slush fund, $2b in Contributions to the Cullen Fund and $1.4b working for familes.
July 29th, 2005 at 11:46 pm
Or as Damien Christie suggested over on Public Address (hardly a National Party echo chamber), try using a calculator not programmed by the Labour Party. I’d recommend the organic one between your ears that’s fully loaded with complete data about your actual circumstances.
July 30th, 2005 at 8:22 am
The computer between my ears responds that if Student debt goes up 6 billion in 3 years and the cost of the move is 1 billion a year, simply by cutting off interest, that the putative interest that we’re forgiving runs in the 50 % range.
In other words SOMEONE has a reasonable estimate of what will happen, but it apparently is not Rodney.
The only tax problem in this country is that the tax/benefit calculation results in a 90% effective marginal rate for a chunk of the middle class. A marginal rate that DROPS as income rises over 70k. Top marginal effective rate is the thing that Rodney gets the most mileage from and he has a GOOD point when he points there, but it doesn’t indicate that there’s money to give back, or tax is too high.
With a government debt in the 60-80 billion range and the need to fund pensions with real money and the need to leave less debt to our kids and the government borrowing still, you can’t call the oberac number a surplus with any accuracy.
Peter however, has a good point again.
respectfully
BJ
July 30th, 2005 at 1:37 pm
Then respectfully bjchip the computer between your ears needs to analyse the situation.
WIB has the fiscal annual cost of $705m. Rodney has calculated the opportunity cost = close to a billion a year.
July 30th, 2005 at 2:09 pm
Opportunity cost? I am not registerd with hidesight, and I expect that this will not hit the archive section for another week. I will see the computation he’s doing eventually. At the moment I don’t believe anyone except the guy who says this is likely to be a winner for labour. What it will COST will depend a lot on how it is really done when it IS done. No way to know, or even guess.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather fund education with a bit less reliance on borrowing. Putting loan interest at zero tends to distort any economy. I will look at Member Hide’s analysis and guesswork too… but guesswork is all ANYONE can do until the end of a few years with the policy when real numbers are available.
respectfully
BJ