frogblog

This morning’s Fairfax poll in the Dominion Post and the Press has some very interesting numbers.

The bottom line, however, is this: the progressive forces of Labour and the Greens have fallen behind the reactionary forces of National and NZ First. Under MMP, the media should stop asking itself: Is National or Labour ahead? Instead, it should be asking: Which grouping, out of Labour/Green or National/NZ First, has the most support? At the moment, the latter has an average lead of about five points in the polls. So, a close race, but one in which the reactionary parties are currently slightly ahead.

In today’s poll, the progressive parties have 43 percent between us (Labour 37%, the Greens 6%) and the reactionary parties have 50 percent (National 42%, NZ First 8%). In last week’s NBR poll, the corresponding figures were 44% for us and 49% for them. The average seems to be about a 5% gap. I suspect that Labour’s numbers will start to improve (closing the gap between the two ideological groupings) in a couple of weeks or so, as the relative calm of the Parliamentary recess starts to be reflected in the polls, but that remains to be seen.

Other interesting insights from today’s polling:

• The pollsters asked Labour, National and NZ First voters who they would like their parties to coalesce with. Labour voters want a Labour/Green Government, National voters want a National/NZ First Government, and NZ First voters want a Labour/NZ First Government. The attitudes of Labour and National voters certainly are in keeping with their parties’ positioning. Labour has made clear it would rather form a government with the Greens than NZ First. As for National, with Act and United dying, it will have no choice but to go into government with NZ First. Word around Parliament is certainly that National and NZ First are already in negotiations about post-election arrangements. Increasingly, it seems that a vote for Don Brash is a vote for Winston Peters and vice versa.
• NZ First support has plateaued, if not dipped. In both last week’s NBR poll and today’s poll, NZ First support has gone done. Rather than the double-digit support it enjoyed in a few polls in previous months, NZ First is now settling down into the 7-9% bracket. The question will be nagging that party’s strategists: Have they, as Helen Clark has suggested, peaked too soon?
• There are really only four parties in this race: Labour plus the Greens on the progressive side, and National plus New Zealand First on the reactionary side. All other parties have negligible support.
• National’s current lead over Labour is a result of much higher support than Labour among men (46%-32%), among over 55s (46%-31%), among Pakeha (45%-35%) and in rural areas (50%-28%). Labour’s ability to break down these huge leads will be the key to its ability to win a third term.
• The Greens’ nationwide support is contributed to greatly by residents of Wellington and Christchurch, where the party has 10% and 12% support respectively. It’s also interesting that we have 8% support among Asians, while all other third parties register no support among this group. We also have 11% support among Pacific Islanders, the same as both National and NZ First.
• The Act Party seems in complete disarray. Its remaining support (2% nationwide) is among an ever dwindling group of middle-aged, white, urban men. This week’s “vote for us or we’re going to die” strategy has more than a whiff of desperation about it. Trying to get voters to pity you is a novel tactic, but one unlikely to work. I’ve previously noted that Act did quite well among young voters in 2002. Notwithstanding an article in the Dominion Post this week, which marvelled at how well Rodney Hide was received by Victoria University students, Act’s support among young people appears to have completely disappeared. In today’s poll, Act registers no support among 18-24-year-olds.

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