A four-horse race
A new opinion poll this morning shows only four parties with significant nationwide support. Labour and National are on 38%, NZ First is on 10%, and the Greens are on 8%. All other parties are at or below 2%. Act and United are poised to be swept off the political landscape.
Using the Electoral Commission’s seat calculator, and assuming that Anderton and Dunne and five Maori Party candidates win electorate seats, we’d have the following Parliament:
The progressive parties
Labour: 48
Greens: 10
Progressive: 1
Total: 59 seats
The conservative parties
National: 48
NZ First: 12
United: 1
Total: 61 seats
Up in the air
Maori Party: 5
Under this scenario, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power and would decide which bloc of parties would govern.
June 26th, 2005 at 4:44 pm
Hm-m-m, about the Maori Party. Do they not expect to take all 7 (it is 7 is it not?) Maori seats? Why do you suggest only 5?
They certainly would be a wild card, having already divorced themselves from Labour, and, if the woman on “Eye to Eye” yesterday is an indication of their attitude, then it is difficult for me to see them in a coalition with Helen.
June 26th, 2005 at 6:20 pm
Joy, i think fwog been sniffing fwench fwies .. his bwain fuzzy .. this election will boiled down to right and left .. and it is righten on the wall already .. but we gotta prevent don [or helen] taking on winston though so the public probably be hard on Gween this time .. helen give definite indication to public that she prefer peter dunne to rod, you must sack rod donald you will never be the force you should be till you get a realist leader .. Gweens should plan the coop later this year ..
June 26th, 2005 at 8:25 pm
I’m not convinced that the Progressive party, or especially its leader-for-life, is at all progressive.
June 27th, 2005 at 7:32 am
no, he’s giving progressive politics a bad name..perhaps he should re-label, as the jim anderton reactionary party..
phil(whoar.co.nz)