Dog-whistle politics
The election in Britain, due in May, will tell us something interesting about how our election is going to play out. Superficially at least, the overall dynamic of the two campaigns is similar: a once-very-popular Labour government, coming to the end of a second term, looks a little tired and vulnerable, and is faced with a Tory opposition that seems better organised and more confident than last time, having found some buttons with the electorate it can push.
National will thus be interested both in the tactics the British Tories use and how successful they are. So far, the Tory campaign has been characterised by “dog-whistle politics”. As the Economist explains:
It means putting out a message that, like a high-pitched dog-whistle, is only fully audible to those at whom it is directly aimed. The intention is to make potential supporters sit up and take notice while avoiding offending those to whom the message will not appeal …
Dog-whistle politics explains why the Conservative leader, Michael Howard, has been making such a big thing out of illegal gypsy and traveller encampments this week and why the Tories are determined to keep up the attack on the government’s immigration policies …
Nothing that Mr Howard or [former Tory Minister] Mr Lilley said could fairly be described as racist… Yet it is also true that racists, bigots and the millions of people who are neither of those things but whose fears are fanned daily by a mendacious press will have pricked up their ears and listened to a message aimed squarely at them. And just in case there was any question about who and what the Tories were appealing to, Mr Howard issued his statement on gypsies astride a platform emblazoned with the party’s rather creepy campaign slogan: “Are you thinking what we’re thinking?â€? Thinking, but not quite saying, in other words.
Thankfully, the common decency of the British people seems to be winning through: the Economist reckons the Tories may simply be “whistling up their most faithful hounds”. The polls show Labour headed for a third term.
Back in New Zealand, we can be sure that NZ First, United, National, and Act will all do a fair bit of dog-whistling this year: about Maori, immigrants, Asians, gays, solo mums, beneficiaries, and many others in between. There’ll be a lot of noise this election year. But when it all dies down, Labour will be reelected, and - with a bit of luck - its third term agenda will be more progressive (and Green) that its second.
